Conservatives Crumble: Liberals surge past CPC into majority territory, but Grits’ vote commitment is softer

Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP

March 17, 2025 – A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing Liberal Party – led by newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney – surging to a five-point vote intention advantage nationally after trailing by 29 points in late December. Were these numbers to hold, with the Liberals at 42 per cent in vote intention, what was a tired, discardable brand just three months ago would be on its way to a fourth term, this time with a majority.

The causes are myriad, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre losing two of his biggest targets – Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax – and U.S. President Donald Trump generating a wave of Canadian pride and nationalism with tariff and annexation threats. Over this three-month period Liberal support has jumped 30 points in the city of Toronto, 25 points in 905 ridings.

There are serious caveats, however.

While the party has skyrocketed into majority territory not seen since 2016, much of this vote intention lacks solidity. Half of would-be Liberal voters currently say they’re very committed to this position (49%), 17-points lower than the CPC base (66%).

That said, Carney enters the job with some key advantages over Poilievre. He is seen as best to handle the ongoing trade war and Trump’s annexation threats by a majority of Canadians, while Poilievre is seen as best by three-in-10. The same proportions say this when considering which leader will capably steward Canada’s economy more broadly.

More bluntly, 41 per cent now view Carney as best suited to be prime minister compared to 29 per cent for Poilievre. At least measurement, with Trudeau sitting in the PM chair, Poilievre led the Liberal leader by 19 points on this question.

More Key Findings:

• The Liberals now hold two key advantages in vote. In Ontario, 47 per cent would support that party while 41 per cent would vote for the CPC. The Liberals are also in first place in Quebec (39%) with a seven-point lead over the Bloc Québécois (32%). Vote intention is tied in B.C. and Manitoba, while the CPC lead has shrunk but is still massive in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

• The CPC leads by eight points among men over 55 years of age and nine points among those 35 to 54. Young men prefer each party at an equal proportion. Women of all ages now offer a significant advantage to the Liberals, recapturing one of the keys to the party’s success under Trudeau.

• Both of Canada’s longer serving federal party leaders continue to face negative public opinion trends. Poilievre is viewed favourably by 35 per cent and unfavourably by 55 per cent (-22); Singh is viewed favourably by 33 per cent and unfavourably by 58 (-25).

• Trudeau leaves with the approval of 47 per cent of Canadians and the disapproval of 49 per cent. Trudeau’s approval jumped 25 points compared to an all-time low of 22 per cent just weeks before he announced his resignation on Jan. 6.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Part One: Carney and the Liberal comeback

• New PM takes Liberals above CPC for the first time since 2022

• Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec

• Urban vote intent for Liberals doubles from December

• The Liberal/Conservative gender divide

Part Two: Vote retention and commitment

• Liberals claw back some 2021 voters

• But many Liberal supporters say they could still change their minds

Part Three: Leadership and momentum

• Half have favourable view of Carney

• Poilievre trends negatively

• Singh sits at favourability low-point

• Plurality view Carney as best choice for PM

Part Four: Top issues

• Carney holds advantage over Poilievre on top issues of the day

Postscript: Trudeau leaves on a high note

Part One: Carney and the Liberal comeback

New PM takes Liberals above CPC for the first time since 2022

New Liberal leader Mark Carney was sworn in as prime minister last week, taking over a full plate of hot issues from the departing Justin Trudeau. While Carney’s first trip as prime minister is to the United Kingdom and Europe, his attention is firmly set on Canada’s southern border and the destabilizing force of second-term U.S. President Donald Trump. In his first speech as prime minister, Carney called the threats of annexation from Trump as “crazy” and definitively stated that Canada would “never” become the 51st State.

Trudeau’s departure, and Canada-U.S. relations, have had an outsized effect on the rapidly shifting voter intention picture that the country has seen since the calendar turned to 2025. The Liberals under Trudeau had sunk to quite possibly their lowest ever support – 16 per cent – last New Year’s Eve. A week later, Trudeau announced his intention to resign. Vote intention for the party bounced back during the Liberal leadership race to replace the outgoing PM and has continued an upward trend.

With Carney in place at the helm, the Liberals’ ascension has taken them past the rival Conservative Party for the first time since 2022. Currently, 42 per cent of Canadians say they would support the Liberals if an election was held today – the highest support for the Liberals has been since September 2016. Fewer than two-in-five (37%) would support the Conservatives, representing a five-point advantage for the incumbents.

The Liberals’ surge has come less at the expense of the Conservatives (although that has also happened) and more to the detriment of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. The former’s support falls to nine per cent, the lowest figure seen in more than a decade of tracking data by the Angus Reid Institute. The latter’s sits at eight per cent, matching the totals the Quebec-only party received in the last two federal elections, but below the double figure support seen for the party last year:

Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec

The evaporation of support for the Liberals under Trudeau led to a series of byelection defeats last year, none more significant than the Liberal loss of Toronto-St. Paul’s, a riding held by the party for 30 years. The Liberal defeat in Toronto was emblematic of declining support for the party not only across the country, but also in the seat-rich province of Ontario.

Under the party’s new leadership, the Liberals hold the advantage over the Conservatives in Ontario. The Liberals also are the choice of a plurality of those in Quebec. Support for the incumbent party has also rebounded in Atlantic Canada, historically a stronghold. The Conservatives and Liberals are tied in B.C. and Manitoba, while the former party finds its strongest support in the Prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan:

Urban vote intent for Liberals doubles from December

The decline of support in the metropolitan areas of the country since the 2021 federal election is another significant trend for the Liberals that appears to have reversed.

Related: Metro Slide: Dissatisfaction with federal Liberals drives double-digit drop in urban support

Compared to early December, vote intention for the Liberals has nearly doubled in urban areas. The Conservatives hold an advantage still in the rural parts of the country, but support for the Liberals in those areas has more than doubled from December:

There has been a surge of support for the Liberals in the country’s biggest cities led by 30-point gains in the downtown core of Toronto and 28-point gains in Halifax and Calgary. In Toronto’s core, this gain has been at the expense of both the Conservatives (-16) and NDP (-11), while in the country’s other big cities, it is the NDP whose support has suffered most from the Liberals’ resurgence:

The Liberal/Conservative gender divide

Since he was elected as leader of the Conservative party in 2022, Pierre Poilievre has been viewed more negatively by women than men. That gender gap in appraisal likely plays into the lower support for the party among women. Meanwhile, the Liberals have seen some growth in support among men, but still trail the Conservatives among men older than 34:

The 45- to 64-year-old age range is the largest source of support for the Conservatives in general. But they find themselves at best tied with the Liberals among Canadians those ages. Conservative support dries up among those younger than 35, while Canadians older than 64 are more likely to vote Liberal than any other party:

Part Two: Vote retention and commitment

Liberals claw back 2021 voters

At the Liberals’ nadir on New Year’s Eve, more than half of the party’s 2021 voters said they would be looking to vote elsewhere whenever the next federal election came around. The party’s reversal of fortunes has partially come about by those 2021 federal Liberals returning home. It is also boosted by siphoning off 2021 NDP voters, half of whom who say they would vote Liberal if the election were today.

The Bloc also appear to be suffering from the Liberals’ bounce back, with one-quarter (23%) of 2021 separatist Bloc Québécois voters saying they will support the Liberals come the next election. Notably, Quebec had seen the largest boost in proportion of Canadians who said they have a deep emotional attachment to Canada in response to Trump’s annexation threats and tariff assaults.

Related: Pride in Canada rebounds in face of Trump threat; working to reduce interprovincial trade barriers seen as key to response

But many Liberal supporters say they could still change their minds

Despite the vote intention upheaval of the last few months, the Conservatives still maintain the largest group of “very committed” voters with two-thirds (66%) who say they are steadfast in their support of the party. Meanwhile, half (49%) of current Liberal supports say the same thing.

The NDP, whose support has fallen off a cliff in the wake of Trudeau’s departure, also finds itself with the least committed group of voters:

Part Three: Leadership and momentum

Half have favourable view of Carney

One of the key public opinion stories of 2024 was the general distaste the country had for its political leaders. ARI research found that the collection of Poilievre, Trudeau and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh were the least popular national party leaders of the big three parties dating back 50 years.

Related: Canada’s national party leaders have never been less popular, and 50 years of data demonstrates that

Carney enters the picture as the only leader among the big three parties with a positive net favourability rating, as well as a favourable view by half (50%) of Canadians. One-third (35%) say they view Carney unfavourably, while a sizable minority of one-in-six (15%) have yet to form an opinion.

Among the remaining two of the negatively viewed trio, Singh is less popular (33% favourable) than Poilievre (35%).

Blanchet is viewed favourably by half (50%) in Quebec. But he performs worse on this metric than Carney in that province, who is viewed favourably by a majority (55%, see detailed tables).

Poilievre trends negatively

Poilievre never got to enjoy a honeymoon of public opinion among Canadians. He entered the political scene after his Conservative leadership race victory viewed unfavourably by a majority of Canadians (51%). That perspective has only become more popular over time, reaching a new high of 57 per cent in these most recent data. One-third (35%) say they have an unfavourable of Poilievre, a five-point decline from the peak of his popularity in January 2024:

Singh sits at favourability low-point

Three-in-five (58%) Canadians say they have an unfavourable view of Singh, tying his lowest rating since he took over the NDP’s leadership in 2017. He’s been at that low point since December. That also represents an 11-point decline in opinion of the NDP leader from one year ago, when assessments from Canadians were near evenly split between positive (44%) and negative (47%):

Plurality view Carney as best choice for PM

The unpopularity of the Trudeau, Singh and Poilievre trio of federal leaders mentioned above, also led to a situation where many Canadians felt they did not have a good option when it came to who would best fill the prime minister’s chair. Poilievre was previously the most likely choice for best prime minister by Canadians but was also usually followed close behind by “none of the above”.

Enter Carney, who is selected as the best prime minister by two-in-five (41%) Canadians, while the proportion of Canadians who believe none of the big three party leaders is the best choice has declined to 13 per cent.

Part Four: Top issues

The three top issues of 2025 are clear in the minds of Canadians. The first is the cost-of-living crisis which has challenged many over the past four years. The second is the more recent threat from Trump, which has strained relations with the United States in a way rarely seen in this nation’s history. Third is the ever-looming issue of Canadian healthcare.

Related: Anger, betrayal and anxiety: Canadians say they’re ready to fight back after tariffs drive views of U.S. to new low

Carney holds advantage over Poilievre on top issues of the day

If and when a federal election campaign does begin, there are going to be several key issues for voters deciding between the contenders. Trump will undoubtedly loom large, and this appears to be an advantage currently for Carney. The new prime minister is preferred over Poilievre by 25 points in handling the trade and tariff war, and 22 points on Trump’s threats of annexation. On the more purely domestic issues of improving the Canadian economy and health care, Carney also holds a large advantage.

Postscript: Trudeau leaves on a high note

Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leaves with what will likely be a fascinating final act in the history of his leadership. Trudeau hit a nadir in December of last year after the resignation of his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, and then stepped down from the job in early January. Immediately after this, however, the country was repeatedly threatened by Trump, which has evidently created space for Trudeau to re-enter the graces of Canadians. His opposition to Trump and leadership in the last three months has more than doubled his approval rating from 22 to 47 per cent, the highest mark recorded since January 2021:

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 13 – 16, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 4,009 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. 

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.