Metro Slide: Dissatisfaction with federal Liberals drives double-digit drop in urban support

CPC doubles both NDP and Liberals in vote intention

The vote intention picture has been a difficult one to look at for the governing federal Liberals in 2024. One-in-five (21%) Canadians say they would support the incumbent party if an election were held today. Meanwhile, more than double that (43%) say they would support the opposition Conservatives. The Liberals’ support remains the lowest it has been in nearly a decade worth of Angus Reid Institute tracking data, while conversely, Conservative support is the highest it has been in that same period.

The NDP, at one-in-five (20%), have seen little variation in its support since the last election:

The Liberals’ Metro Slide

The Liberals’ decline in vote intention is perhaps best evident in the results of recent byelections in what were historically Liberal-dominant ridings in urban centres. Residents in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood – Transcona and the Montreal riding of LaSalle – Émard – Verdun cast their ballots in byelections Sept. 16. Elmwood – Transcona held form, though by a closer than usual margin, by electing the NDP candidate. That riding has gone to the NDP in every election except for one dating back to its creation in 1988.

But LaSalle – Émard – Verdun had a long history of electing Liberals both in its current iteration and under previous boundaries. The byelection was won by the Bloc Québécois candidate, with the Liberal candidate collecting the support of 27 per cent, a far cry from the 43 per cent garnered by former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti when he won the riding in each of the last three federal elections.

The failure to hold LaSalle – Émard – Verdun in Montreal follows the Liberals’ loss of another long-time Liberal seat in Toronto – St. Paul’s. As urban voters turn away from the incumbent Liberals, it is worth noting what the key issues have been for the past two years according to Canadians: the rising cost of living, health care and housing affordability. The cost of living is a key issue across the country, but the housing affordable crisis has predominantly been an urban issue. Indeed, those living in urban areas of the country are more likely to select housing affordability as a top issue (33%) than those living in rural areas (22%).

Crime/public safety is also an issue worth mentioning. Last year, the Liberal government passed bail-reform legislation intended to make it more difficult for repeat offenders to be granted bail. More than 10 months have passed and the reforms have been criticized for not having enough of an effect. Crime ranks as a top issue in Metro Vancouver, Winnipeg, and both Toronto’s core and suburbs.

Climate change ranks as a top five issue in Metro Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto’s downtown, and Greater Montreal. The Liberals weakened their own key climate change policy last year when they announced the home heating oil exemption from the carbon tax.

It is perhaps the lack of progress, or perceived worsening performance, on these issues that is harming the Liberals in these urban areas.

Montreal

Greater Montreal has historically been a Liberal stronghold, but the unpopularity of current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the party more broadly has pulled down support even in areas which previously looked unassailable. Even as recently as January 2022, a majority (51%) in Greater Montreal supported the Liberals. Three-in-10 (29%) say that now. The Bloc have largely been the beneficiary of this Liberal decline, though support for the Conservatives has also risen from 10 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 17 per cent now:

Toronto

In June, the Liberals lost Toronto – St. Paul’s to the Conservatives. The riding had been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years and the Liberals hadn’t lost a seat in downtown Toronto since 2011. Even in the last two federal elections, which saw the Liberals lose the popular vote but still hold enough support to form minority governments, the party won every seat in Toronto’s downtown core.

Support for the Liberals in Toronto’s core has declined from the post-election high of 52 per cent in March 2022 to 33 per cent now, placing them in a statistical tie with the Conservatives (34%).

The Liberals have also carried the bulk of the seats in the past two federal elections in the suburbs around the downtown core of Toronto, otherwise known as the 905 region. The party faces an even greater threat from the Conservatives in these areas than in Toronto’s core, as support for the CPC has grown to a plurality level since 2022:

Metro Vancouver

The Metro Vancouver region has seen the NDP, Liberals and CPC pick up seats in the last two federal elections, but the ridings in the city of Vancouver have gone either Liberal or NDP (or independent after Jody Wilson-Raybould won Vancouver – Granville in the 2019 election after being kicked out of the Liberal caucus). The latest federal vote intention picture for Metro Vancouver indicates that the Conservatives may be much more competitive in core Vancouver ridings than in previous elections:

Winnipeg

While a byelection loss for the Liberals in Elmwood – Transcona perhaps comes as no surprise given the riding’s historical NDP leanings, the Liberals have won four seats in Winnipeg in each of the last two federal elections. The governing party has ceded vote intention to both the CPC and the NDP over the past two years, dropping from first place in January 2022 to third now: