Conservatives lead by 22 points in vote intent nationally and hold advantage in all provinces but Quebec
September 4, 2024 – While the number of Canadians galvanized over the cost of living and inflation is beginning to decrease, their attention is fixating on an issue that was once only glancingly thought of: immigration.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians’ concern over immigration has risen four-fold over the last two years, prompting the federal government to announce plans to shrink the Temporary Foreign Workers program. One-in-five (21%) say “Immigration/refugees” is one of the top issues facing the country, putting it in a tie with climate change (21%), though still far off from the high cost of living (57%), health care (45%) and housing affordability (32%).
The latter concern perhaps represents a ripple effect from Canada’s booming population driven by immigrants, both temporary and permanent. Another may be unemployment, especially among younger Canadians, who encountered an especially difficult summer job market influenced by a growing number of temporary foreign workers. One-in-five (19%) 18- to 34-year-olds say the lack of jobs is a top issue facing the country, as two-in-five (40%) that age fret over housing affordability as well.
As noted above, the Liberal government will be rolling back some of the pandemic-era changes to the Temporary Foreign Workers program, but this has had no impact on vote intentions so far. The Liberals are still operating with a large support deficit which has lasted more than a year. Among decided voters, more than two-in-five (43%) say they would vote Conservative if the election were today, while similar sized groups of one-in-five say they would support the Liberals (21%) and the NDP (19%).
In the nearly two years since the party elected Pierre Poilievre as leader, the CPC have made gains across nearly all demographics and regions at expense of the Liberals. Support for the Liberals has declined double digits in Ontario (-13) and Atlantic Canada (-17), with the Conservatives enjoying concurrent nine- and ten-point positive swings in those places respectively. The CPC have also seen at least eight-point increases in support among women 18- to 34-years-old (+8) and older than 54 (+8) and men aged 35-54 (+10).
While the vote intention story is all about gains for the Conservatives since he became leader, Poilievre himself has made little progress at improving his personal favourability. Half (52%) say they have an unfavourable view of the CPC leader, statistically identical to the figure seen when he was first elected (51%). The same is true of his favourability (36% now; 35% Sept. 2022). He has made inroads on this front among men aged 35-54 (+9 favourability) and women 18-34 (+5), though for the latter opinions are still overwhelmingly negative (52% unfavourable). And any demographic gains are offset by a decline (-15 favourability) among 18- to 34-year-old men over the past two years.
Click below to see Key Takeaways from the data
One-in-five (21%) Canadians say immigration is one of the top issues for the country at the moment. It is still surpassed as an issue by the rising cost of living (57%), health care (45%) and housing affordability (32%) in the eyes of Canadians.
The Conservatives have led in vote intention by double digits since September 2023. The Liberals and NDP are statistically tied in vote intention, with the support of one-in-five Canadians.
More than one-third (36%) of Canadians say they have a favourable view of Poilievre; a similar proportion said the same in September 2022 when he was first elected as leader of the Conservatives.
Poilievre has made gains among some demographics, but they are offset by a drop in favourability among men aged 18-34.
The Full Story
INDEX
Part One: Top issues
Concern over immigration nearly quadruples over past two years
One-in-five young Canadians worry about jobs, unemployment
Part Two: Vote intent
Two years of Poilievre: CPC make gains across most demographics, regions
Part Three: Leadership
Net negative opinions of big three federal leaders
Part One: Top issues
When parliament resumes seating later this month, there will be a full docket of issues waiting to be addressed. A majority of Canadians (57%) believe the cost of living is one of the top issues facing the country at the moment, while more than two-in-five (45%) say the same of health care. Behind that, one-in-three worry over housing affordability. Other concerns trail far behind those three, but at least one-in-five say climate change (21%), immigration (21%), and crime and public safety (19%) are key challenges for Canada:
Concern over immigration nearly quadruples over past two years
Some issues are lingering – cost of living, health care, and housing affordability have consistently been selected by Canadians as top issues over the past two years – while others have grown more pressing according to Canadians. The proportion of Canadians that select Immigration / Refugees as a top issue has nearly quadrupled over the past two years.
Perhaps at issue is growing attention over the ripple effects of the federal government’s Temporary Foreign Workers program, which had been expanded as the country dealt with a post-pandemic labour shortage. In 2023, the federal government allowed employers to hire nearly 240,000 temporary foreign workers, more than double the amount it allowed in 2018. After a cabinet retreat focused on housing and immigration, the federal Liberal government announced plans to scale back the program. There will be more to come on Canadian public opinion on the Temporary Foreign Workers program in a forthcoming report.
Those who say they will vote Conservative if the election were held today are the most likely to be concerned about immigration. It’s the second most chosen issue behind the high cost of living among those likely voters. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has said a government led by him would reduce immigration, keeping population growth lower than the number of new homes.
The issues concerning likely Liberal voters remain consistent from two years ago, while those who say they will vote NDP are becoming increasingly concerned with housing affordability (+9) and less so with climate change (-11):
Regionally, cost of living remains a key concern. Underneath that, there have been notable shifts in the past two years. Climate change has fallen off as a concern in B.C., typically a place where residents put a higher emphasis on environmental issues. Taxes – perhaps with an eye on the federal government’s unpopular carbon tax and the recent changes to the capital gains tax – have grown in importance among Albertans and those in Saskatchewan.
Related:
- Raise, pause, abolish? Centre-left voters rally around carbon tax, but majority would still reduce or eliminate it
- Capital Gains Tax: One-in-five say increasing inclusion rate will cost them more over next five years
Immigration has risen significantly as a concern across the country, and regionally in Alberta (+21), Saskatchewan (+17), Ontario (+18) and Quebec (+14). Ontario led the country in 2023 accepting an estimated 200,000 immigrants according to Statistics Canada, but as a percentage of population, Saskatchewan accepted the most immigrants with an estimated 25,000 immigrants incoming to that province in 2023, roughly two per cent of its population:
One-in-five young Canadians worry about jobs, unemployment
A likely ripple effect of the government’s expansion of the Temporary Foreign Workers program is youth unemployment, which rose to 13.5 per cent in June, double the national average, and the highest it had been since September 2014. One-in-five (19%) 18- to 34-year-olds say “unemployment” is a top issue facing the country. Older Canadians express a higher concern for public safety, while immigration is also a rising concern among those older than 54:
Part Two: Vote intent
As the House of Commons prepares for what is more than likely the final fall sitting period of the 44th Parliament, the vote intent picture remains relatively static – the Conservatives enjoy a large lead of more than 20 points, while the incumbent Liberal Party and its supply-and-confidence partner NDP are the choice of one-in-five.
Vote intent for the Conservatives has risen to the highest it has been in ARI tracking dating back to 2014, the year before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were elected to a majority government. Meanwhile, 21 per cent of vote intention represents a record low for the Liberals also dating back to 2014.
The erosion of Liberal support, and the Conservatives’ concurrent rise, began in earnest in September 2022, when Pierre Poilievre stepped into the role of leader of the Conservative Party. Since then, the gap between the two parties has tripled from seven-points in 2022 to 22 now:
Two years of Poilievre: CPC make gains across most demographics, regions
Traditionally, the Angus Reid Institute compares vote intent quarterly, but for this report, is comparing data from September 2022 to show how much has changed in the two years since Poilievre was elected as leader of the Conservative party.
Support of the Conservatives has grown across all age-and-gender demographics except 18- to 34-year-old men in the past two years. That includes double digit gains among men older than 34 and eight-point gains among young women and women older than 54. Vote intention for the Liberals has meanwhile declined across all age-and-gender demographics, headlined by a near 20-point drop among women older than 54.
The NDP have made some gains among some of the demographics who have moved away from the Liberals but have also lost ground among men older than 34 who make up the largest portion of the Poilievre Conservative base. The net result for the NDP is little movement in their national vote intention number over the past two years:
The national lead for the Conservatives is also a story of regional dominance outside of Quebec. The CPC lead in vote intent in every part of the country – except Quebec – and have made gains largely at the Liberals’ expense. For example, the Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada, which has elected at least 24 Liberals in the available 32 seats in each of the last three elections, after vote intention for the Liberals there has declined by 17 points. The Liberals have also seen a double-digit (-13) drop in support in Ontario since September 2022.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois has been the largest beneficiary from the Liberals’ fall as Poilievre and the CPC have made little headway in the province since he was elected leader:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Part Three: Leadership
Net negative opinions of big three federal leaders
Whether an election comes next summer in June when the Liberals’ supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP expires, or in October, the last possible date for an election to be held, it is the final year of Trudeau’s third term. The prime minister remains in a valley of low approval. Three-in-ten (30%) say they approve of Trudeau, while more than double instead have a negative impression (65%). Since September 2022, approval of Trudeau has declined by 10 points while disapproval has risen nearly as much (+9).
Despite his persistent unpopularity, Trudeau has waved away any suggestions he could follow the example of U.S. President Joe Biden and step away from the Liberal leadership before the next election. However, a byelection in the typically Liberal-friendly Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, necessitated by the resignation of former Justice Minister David Lametti looms as another potential pivot point.
Opinions of Trudeau have deteriorated across all age and gender groups. In September 2022, half of women older than 54 said they approved of the prime minister. They are still the most likely demographic to have a positive opinion of Trudeau, but now fewer than two-in-five (37%) do.
A majority of all demographics say they disapprove of Trudeau, which wasn’t the case two years ago:
While his party has capitalized in the polls since he became leader, opinions of Poilievre himself are relatively unchanged on the surface since he won the CPC leadership race in September 2022. Half (52%) say they have an unfavourable view of the Conservative leader, more than one-third (36%) say they have a positive one. In the past two years, the latter has peaked at two-in-five at the beginning of 2024, while the former has only fallen to as low as 49 per cent:
The relatively stable overall opinion of Poilievre masks subtle changes underneath the surface. Opinions of the Conservative leader have improved among men older than 34 and women aged 18-34, while remaining statistically similar among women older than 34. But this has been offset by a double-digit decline among younger men, of whom approaching three-in-five (57%) say they have an unfavourable view of Poilievre:
Jagmeet Singh and the NDP may have advanced significant policy priorities – dental care, anti-scab legislation, pharmacare – through their supply-and-confidence agreement with the minority Liberal government, but perhaps at the cost of attaching themselves to a deeply unpopular prime minster. Singh had previously enjoyed a favourability advantage among federal leaders but has seen a decline in opinion over the past two years.
Across all demographics, fewer say they have a favourable view of the NDP leader than did two years ago. However, assessments of Singh among women are still more positive than negative:
Survey Methodology
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Aug. 29 to Sept. 3, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,420 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For the full release including methodology, click here.
For the questionnaire, click here.
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org @thejonroe
