The summer is a pivotal season for Prime Minister Mark Carney as the U.S.-Canada trade relationship enters a forced inflexion point with the scheduled joint review of the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement — which U.S. President Donald Trump has once again threatened to blow up. Carney enters this period with signs that the grace extended by Canadians to his renewed Liberal government is waning.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds approval of Carney dipping to 55 per cent — the third straight decline in ARI data since the peak of his popularity in February. The slide comes as persistent domestic concerns dominate: cost of living tops the issue agenda at 61 per cent, ahead of health care (39%) and housing affordability (25%). Only one-in-eight (13%) cite U.S. relations and Trump's tariffs as a top priority. Meanwhile, the gap between Carney's approval and the share who believe Canada is on the right track — just 31 per cent — points to deeper unease about the country's direction even among those who like the prime minister personally.
Top Issues
Carney Approval
Poilievre Favourability
Right Track / Wrong Track
Vote Intention
Regional Picture
Methodology
‹
›
Part One
Top issues facing Canada — by age group
The high cost of living is the dominant concern across all age groups, chosen by 61% of Canadians. Health care (39%) and housing affordability (25%) round out the top three. U.S. relations including Trump's tariffs rank fourth at 13% nationally — lower than at the height of the trade war. Young Canadians aged 18–24 stand out for their elevated concern about housing (42%) and jobs and unemployment (33%).
Cost of Living
Health Care
Housing Affordability
Part Two — Leadership
Approval of PM Mark Carney over time (post-election)
Carney's approval peaked at 63% in February — following his Davos speech at the World Economic Forum — and has slipped eight points to 55% in the most recent data. Disapproval has risen correspondingly to 39%. Notably, his current approval mirrors that of former PM Justin Trudeau at a similar point in his tenure: 55% approved of Trudeau after 14 months; 55% approve of Carney after 15.
Approve
Disapprove
Don't know / Can't say
Part Two — Leadership
Favourability of CPC leader Pierre Poilievre over time
Three-in-five Canadians (60%) view Poilievre unfavourably — a share that has held at or near that level in five of the past seven ARI measurement cycles. Just one-third (33%) view him favourably. The burgeoning Alberta separation movement adds pressure: a majority (56%) of those who voted CPC in the 2025 federal election say they would vote this fall to proceed with a binding separation referendum.
Favourable
Unfavourable
Don't know / Can't say
Part Two — Leadership
Is Canada on the right track or wrong track? By 2025 federal vote
More Canadians say the country is on the wrong track (46%) than the right one (31%) — a 15-point gap that reveals a disconnect from Carney's personal approval numbers. The partisan divide is stark: 73% of CPC voters say wrong track, as do 53% of Bloc voters and 46% of NDP voters. By contrast, 55% of Liberal voters believe Canada is trending positively.
Right track
Wrong track
Not sure / Can't say
Part Three — Vote Intention
Federal vote intention over time (decided and leaning voters)
If an election were held today, two-in-five (41%) would vote Liberal, with the Conservatives at 36% — a five-point gap that echoes the margins seen during last year's federal campaign. The NDP, now led by Avi Lewis, stands at 12%, higher than earlier in Carney's term, which is likely dampening Liberal vote intention in seat-rich B.C. and Ontario. The Liberal lead is narrowest among its recent highs post-election.
CPC
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Part Three — Vote Intention
Federal vote intention by province (decided and leaning voters)
The Liberals hold leads across most of the country, including a 12-point advantage over the Bloc in Quebec and large margins in Atlantic Canada. The race tightens considerably in B.C. (Liberals 41%, CPC 36%) and Ontario (Liberals 43%, CPC 39%), where NDP competitiveness is a factor. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta (52%) and Saskatchewan (59%), and hold a plurality in Manitoba (46%).
CPC
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Green
Other
Methodology
About this survey
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from June 4–10, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,803 Canadian adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status, and education across all 343 federal ridings. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
