46% say PM should resign, prorogue House for leadership race; two-in-five want a Feb. 2025 election
December 30, 2024 – At the end of what has already been a bruising year for federal Liberals, they are on the precipice of a very unhappy New Year.
Amid growing calls for their leader to resign, the latest public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows the party’s support among decided and leaning voters down to just 16 per cent.
It represents the lowest level of support for the party in Angus Reid Institute tracking dating back to 2014. It is also quite possibly the lowest vote intention the Liberals have ever received in the modern era. Even in the worst electoral performance in the party’s 157-year history, the 2011 election under then leader Michael Ignatieff, the Liberals received 18.9 per cent of votes from Canadians, and at minimum 17 per cent in polling leading up to that election.
Meanwhile, as he mulls his future during his ski in the snow in B.C., approval of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which had been steady in the low 20s, now plummets to an all-time nadir of 22 per cent.
These latest blows come at the end of a punishing two weeks wherein Trudeau lost his finance minister and lost the would-be replacement star he’d been chasing. This culminated in an open loss of confidence by a growing number of Liberal MPs who are now publicly calling for him to go.
While Trudeau has said that he would reflect on the growing rebellion within his own ranks, approaching half (46%) of Canadians and three-in-five (59%) current Liberal supporters say it’s time for him to step aside and call for a party leadership contest. Another two-in-five (38%) Canadians believe Trudeau should call for a general election himself when he returns from his holiday break.
INDEX
Part One: Approval of Trudeau hits all-time low
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Favourability of Poilievre unchanged
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Negative views of Singh at all-time high
Part Two: Electoral fortunes of Liberal Party sink
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Voter retention – majority of 2021 Liberal party supporters looking elsewhere
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Voter commitment – CPC supporters twice as likely to be ‘very committed’ to choice
Part Three: The weeks ahead
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Three-in-five Liberal supporters want leadership contest to replace Trudeau
Part One: Approval of Trudeau hits all-time low
Canadian federal politics ended the year a cliffhanger – will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stay on after the surprise resignation of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland? All three opposition parties are now poised to defeat Trudeau’s minority government if the house is to resume sitting in January. Behind the scenes, the Liberal caucus are discussing how to replace Trudeau as leader. Trudeau isn’t expected to make an announcement on his future during the holiday break and is currently in British Columbia on a family ski trip.
Public opinion continues to turn against the prime minister as he considers his options. Approval of Trudeau is at the lowest point of his tenure as Liberal leader, with fewer than one-quarter (22%) saying they have a positive impression of him. This is a six-point drop from data taken earlier this month, prior to the crisis of confidence brought on by Freeland’s resignation.
Trudeau’s declining popularity is evident when canvassing those who voted for him in 2021. A majority (51%) of those who voted Liberal in the last federal election say they disapprove of Trudeau’s performance as prime minister. Other past voters are much more critical:
Favourability of Poilievre unchanged
As impressions of Trudeau grow negative, there has not been a concurrent increase in positivity towards rival CPC leader Pierre Poilievre. Assessments of Poilievre remain relatively static. In Angus Reid Institute’s earlier data from this month, 37 per cent said they had a favourable view of Poilievre. That number stands at 38 per cent – or statistically unchanged.
Poilievre continues to struggle to close the gender gap, as men are much more likely to have a positive impression of the Conservative leader (47%) than women (30%, see detailed tables).
Negative views of Singh at all-time high
Although the spotlight in the recent Canadian political upheaval has been firmly on Trudeau and the Liberal party, the NDP and leader Jagmeet Singh have played more than a minor role. The dynamics of the House of Commons changed in September when Singh “ripped up” the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals, but until recently, Singh and the NDP had kept the minority Liberal government in power and out of an election by refusing to vote against the Liberals on confidence matters. Even in the days after Freeland’s resignation, Singh called for Trudeau to resign but did not commit to joining a vote with the other opposition parties to bring the government down.
Eventually, the NDP and Singh changed tact. Singh said he would bring forward a non-confidence motion in the new year in a letter to Canadians on Dec. 20. However, this pivot has done little to change the trajectory of public assessments of Singh, which have been on a steady decline since the 2021 election. Three-in-five (58%) Canadians say they have an unfavourable view of the NDP leader, tying the highest mark seen in ARI tracking data since Singh took over as leader in 2017:
Part Two: Electoral fortunes of Liberal Party sink
If an election were held today, 45 per cent of voters say they would support the Conservatives, 21 per cent the NDP and 16 per cent the Liberals. The latter not only represents a low in vote intention for the Liberals since Trudeau became leader, but quite possibly the lowest support the party has received in modern times.
In the 1867 election, the Liberals received 22.7 per cent of the vote. In the 43 federal elections since, support for the party has only fallen below 30 per cent three other times – in 1984 when the party led by John Turner received 28 per cent of the vote, 2008 when Stéphane Dion led the party to 26.2 per cent of the vote and in 2011, the only time the Liberals became the third party in parliament under then leader Michael Ignatieff after receiving 18.9 per cent of the vote.
Even in polling prior to the 2011 election, support for the Liberals never fell below 17 per cent.
Support for the Liberals has dropped five points in the weeks since Freeland’s surprise departure from cabinet. This decline is seen across demographics, but is largest among women aged 35 to 54, who have swung towards the Conservatives. Despite the Liberals’ decline in vote intention, the NDP have benefitted little, with some gains seen among older men and younger women:
Regionally, the Conservatives have seen the biggest boost in support in recent weeks in British Columbia, where they are now the choice of a majority in the province. Support for the Liberals has declined the most in Quebec, where both the CPC (+4 since early December) and the Bloc Québécois (+3) appear to have benefitted:
Voter retention – majority of 2021 Liberal party supporters looking elsewhere
The Liberals’ current support is half the amount the party received in the 2021 federal election, when the party won 160 seats with 32.6 per cent of the vote. Most of those who supported the party in 2021 now say they would not repeat their vote, with 12 per cent of 2021 Liberal voters either undecided or not planning to vote, and 16 and 20 per cent currently supporting the CPC and NDP respectively.
Meanwhile, nearly all (89%) 2021 Conservative voters plan to support the party again, while seven-in-ten (68%) of those who voted NDP and 83 per cent of those who voted Bloc continue to support the party they voted for in the most recent federal election:
Voter commitment – CPC supporters twice as likely to be ‘very committed’ to choice
The Conservatives also hold a significant edge when it comes to the solidity of their base whenever the next election comes. Two-thirds (66%) who support the party say they are “very committed” and are unlikely to consider other options in the next election. Fewer of those currently supporting the Liberals (34%), NDP (26%) or Bloc (38%) say the same:
Part Three: The weeks ahead
Three-in-five Liberal supporters want leadership contest to replace Trudeau
Trudeau faces a narrow set of options as he ponders his future. If he returns, barring a change of heart from the opposition parties, the government seems likely to fall on a confidence vote – possibly as soon as Jan. 30 – which will bring an election. He could also return and decide to call an election himself, sending the country to the polls early in the new year. Or he could resign – in a move that’s been called “widely expected” by close friend and former chief advisor Gerald Butts – and the Liberal party would have to decide who to replace him as leader, which would likely bring a prorogation of parliament.
A plurality of Canadians prefer the latter option, while two-in-five (38%) say Trudeau himself should call an election in the new year. Notably, three-in-five (59%) of those who currently support the Liberals say the party should elect a new leader:
Survey Methodology
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Dec. 27-30, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 2,261 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For the PDF of the report, click here.
For the questionnaire, click here.
Image – ID 310196563 | Canada © Vladyslav Musiienko | Dreamstime.com
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Angus Reid, Chairman: 604.505.2229 angus@angusreid.com
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
