Federal Politics: On best PM, Canadians about as likely to choose Poilievre as ‘none of the above’

CPC leads in vote intention comfortably (40%) over Liberals (23%) and NDP (21%)


March 7, 2024 – Political watchers might observe that it has been a winter of both attempted accomplishment and discontent for the Liberal federal government. The ongoing confidence-and-supply agreement with the New Democrats was seemingly strengthened by the announcement of a national pharmacare program – a key component of continuing NDP support for the minority government – in February. That said, recent revelations of a security breach at the Winnipeg National Microbiology Laboratory, and a Conservative by-election victory in Durham have certainly dampened any internal celebrations at Liberal headquarters.

For their part, Canadians have taken it all in and produced largely the same vote intention they offered three months ago. The opposition Conservatives hold a comfortable advantage as the choice for two-in-five would-be voters (40%), close to doubling both the Liberals (23%) and New Democrats (21%).

The story at the federal level is static, if comfortable for the opposition. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre does, however, appear to be bumping against a ceiling when it comes to his favourability. Currently 38 per cent of Canadians say they view him favourably, a number unchanged since last September. This, as women continue to offer him little favour (28%) compared to men (50%).

Poilievre maintains another significant advantage over his rivals, as he is comfortably the most likely leader to be viewed as suited to the job of prime minister. On this measure, Poilievre nearly doubles Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (31% to 17%) and does double NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (15%). That said, perhaps showing the lack of enthusiasm within the Canadian public, 28 per cent of Canadians say they do not think any of the aforementioned leaders is suited to lead the country, and another one-in-10 say they’re not sure who would be best.

More Key Findings:

  • The CPC lead in every region of the country aside from Quebec. In that province, the Bloc Québécois are chosen by 36 per cent of leaning and decided voters, with the Liberals (21%), Conservatives (23%) and NDP (16%) all garnering significant support.
  • Canadians are divided about the ongoing confidence-and-supply agreement. Two-in-five (42%) say it is working well, while the same number (45%) disagree. Notably, there has been no change in these levels compared to last June, even with the announcement of dental and pharmacare programs.
  • The top issues facing the country continue to be inflation, health care, housing affordability, and climate change. These have been the top four issues for a full year, in the same order of priority.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.

 

INDEX

Part One: Persistent top issues facing the nation

  • Generational priorities differ

Part Two: Leader performance

  • Best PM a race between Poilievre and “none of them”

  • Trudeau approval hovers at one-in-three

  • Poilievre bumps into two-in-five ceiling

  • Singh leads among the ‘big three’

  • Improved or worsened?

Part Three: Confidence-and-supply assessments

  • Despite dental, pharmacare announcements, no bump in enthusiasm for Liberal-NDP cooperation

Part Four: Vote intention

 

Part One: Persistent top issues facing the nation

The stories and narratives in the political discourse continue to change month over month, with debates over pharmacare, assisted dying, the Winnipeg lab leak, and ArriveCAN all having their moment in the proverbial spotlight. Despite this, however, Canadians have been consistent over the past year with what matters most to them. The cost of living, health care, housing affordability, and climate change have been the top four issues for Canadians each time they have been asked over the past 12 months.

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate again on March 6, suggesting that inflationary pressures will continue to be a factor for Canadians heading into the spring:

Generational priorities differ

The consistency noted at the total population level, however, obscures some of the generational differences that make up Canadians’ priorities. Housing affordability, for example, is a key issue for the 18- to 34-year-old subgroups, while men over 35 place more emphasis on the economy and taxation than their female counterparts (see detailed tables):

 

Part Two: Leader performance

The start to the year has been one where attempts at “good news” announcements from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have frequently been obscured by breaking news events and revelations of new details about old scandals. Most recently, an agreement between the Liberals and their NDP confidence-and-supply partners over a pharmacare deal was forced to compete for headlines and attention with the counter-announcement that Alberta wished to opt out of the deal, the death of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, an RCMP investigation into procurement around the controversial ArriveCAN app and further revelations about a security breach at the Winnipeg National Microbiology Laboratory.

Best PM a race between Poilievre and “none of them”

Canadians continue to cast their gaze away from the sitting prime minister when it comes to who they view as the best potential leader of the country. The top two choices by Canadians are CPC leader Pierre Poilievre (31%) and none of Poilievre, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh or Trudeau (28%). A further one-in-ten aren’t sure who is best.

Poilievre is chosen as the best candidate for prime minister by four-in-five (81%) of those who say they intend to vote CPC if an election were held today, outpacing the proportion of likely Liberal (61%) and NDP (58%) voters who say the same of their own leaders (see detailed tables).

Trudeau has consistently trailed his Conservative opponents as the best choice for prime minister in the eyes of Canadians. In June 2015, four months prior to the election when he first became prime minister, Trudeau was the third choice on this metric behind former Prime Minister Steven Harper and former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair. However, since being elected, at least one-quarter of Canadians would say Trudeau is the best choice for prime minister. Now fewer than one-in-five say the same:

Men, and especially those older than 34, lean towards believing Poilievre is the best choice to lead the country. Women are more divided, with Singh the plurality choice for women under 35 and none of the above the plurality choice for women older than 54:

Trudeau approval hovers at one-in-three

Overall, assessments of Trudeau have remained consistently poor. One-in-three (32%) approve of the prime minister while two-thirds (63%) do not. Remarkably, this was also how assessments of Trudeau looked five years ago in March 2019:

Poilievre bumps into two-in-five ceiling

The early 2024 news cycle has provided plenty of grist for Poilievre’s mill as he continues to grind away at a government he calls “corrupt”. However, while he holds onto a fervent Conservative base and has attracted new supporters fed up with Trudeau, he’s made fewer strides charming the rest of the electorate. Two-in-five (38%) say they have a favourable view of Poilievre, equal to the proportion who said the same in the previous two quarters and little changed from initial assessments when he won the CPC leadership in Sept. 2022. More than half (52%) of Canadians say they view Poilievre negatively:

Singh leads among the ‘big three’

The pharmacare deal enables Singh to trumpet a policy win for the NDP. And Singh remains the most positively viewed leader among the major political parties, with more than two-in-five (44%) Canadians saying they hold favourable views of the NDP leader. Meanwhile, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet is viewed favourably by half (52%) in Quebec:

Improved or worsened?

Singh can also celebrate making inroads with past Liberal and NDP voters, who lean towards saying their opinions of the NDP leader have improved in recent weeks. That’s more than Trudeau can say, as more Canadians – including those who voted Liberal and NDP in 2021 – say their opinions of the prime minister have worsened.

Poilievre has the least negative momentum, but it is entirely buoyed by the half (47%) of past CPC voters who say their opinion of the CPC leader has improved in recent weeks:

 

Part Three: Confidence-and-supply assessments

Despite dental, pharmacare announcements, no bump in enthusiasm for Liberal-NDP cooperation

The confidence-and-supply agreement signed between the NDP and Liberals in March 2022 has nearly reached the two-year mark, with a 2025 election date looming. After delays and pushed deadlines, the Liberals have advanced the two major pillars of NDP policy that were key to the agreement. In December, the government announced the Canadian Dental Care Plan, which extended dental coverage to Canadians in households earning under $90,000 annually. This, as has been mentioned, was followed by the recent pharmacare announcement.

Despite major advancements on these key policy elements of the confidence-and-supply agreement, Canadians remain divided over whether the agreement between the NDP and Liberals is working well or poorly. Two-in-five (42%) offer a thumbs up, while as many (45%) point their thumbs in the other direction. Assessments remain identical to those seen in June 2023, prior to either pharmacare or dental care being announced:

Past NDP and BQ voters are more likely to believe the government is working “well” or “great” under the confidence-and-supply agreement than they were in June 2023. Those who voted CPC in 2021 continue to offer poor reviews, while those who voted Liberal are still the most positive:

Part Four: Vote intention

The major headlines of the first quarter of 2024 have done little to change the vote intentions of Canadians. The CPC continue to hold a 17-point lead over the Liberals as two-in-five (40%) say they would vote Conservative if an election were held today. The Liberals and NDP are in a statistical tie in vote intention with the support of 23 per cent and 21 per cent of likely voters respectively:

There remains a significant gender divide in voting intention. At least two-in-five of men of all ages say they intend to vote Conservative. Two-in-five (41%) women under 35 say they would vote NDP, while 35- to 54-year-old women lean CPC. The Liberals lead in vote intention among women older than 54 by four points.

The CPC have made statistically significant gains over the past year across all demographics except 18- to 34-year-olds. Women older than 34 have warmed to Poilievre and the Conservatives, but not nearly at the same rate as men that age.

The Liberals have seen declining support across all demographics including, notably, women older than 54, which had always been a strong source of support for the prime minister:

The vote intention map of Canada is very blue at the moment. The CPC lead in all provinces except Quebec, where the Bloc Québécois are the plurality choice:

Survey Methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 28 to March 4, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 3,908 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For a PDF of the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.

To read the questionnaire, click here.

Image – John Lehmann/Pierre Poilievre Facebook

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