Three points separate Liberals & CPC (41% versus 38%); Poilievre’s net favourability at -22
January 26, 2026 – Prime Minister Mark Carney prompted international headlines – and late-night Truth Social posts – with his speech in Davos at the World Economic Forum last week, as he rebuked the predatory and unreliable nature of great economic powers and called on Canada and other so called “middle powers” to realign the global system around national autonomy and cooperation.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the message resonating at home, as Carney sees his approval rating from Canadians jump eight points to 60 per cent. This, his highest such rating since taking over the Liberal leadership in March.
With the resumption of Parliament around the corner, Carney’s opposition rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, faces a leadership review in Calgary. Four-in-five (80%) 2025 Conservative voters say they have a favourable view of Poilievre, but CPC delegates will likely be weighing in their minds the views of Canadians as a whole. Since he was first elected leader of the Conservatives in 2022, views of Poilievre from Canadians have been more negative than positive. That remains the case (58% unfavourable, 36% favourable).
A minority parliament means talk of an election is never far off. If Canadians were to head to the polls today, 41 per cent say they would vote for the Carney-led Liberals, while 38 per cent would vote for Poilievre’s CPC.
One of the Liberals’ first announcement as parliamentarians head back to Ottawa this week was to boost the GST credit through what is being called the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit. This, as Canadians select the cost of living as far and away their top issue for the second consecutive January.
INDEX
Part One: Views of leaders
- Carney approval reaches new high
- Ahead of leadership review, Poilievre popular among CPC voters
- Comparing the two
Part Two: Top issues – start of 2025 vs. start of 2026
Part Three: Vote intention
- Narrow lead for Liberals
- Regional story
- Age and gender
Part One: Views of leaders
Carney approval reaches new high
Prime Minister Mark Carney struck a chord internationally with a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland laying out the path for middle powers such as Canada in a multi-polar world divided between powers such as the U.S., China and Russia. Although it did not mention Trump by name, much of the speech was directed the U.S. president’s direction. It drew a sharp reaction from Trump, who said Carney wasn’t “grateful”. “Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump added.
Post Davos, Canadians are now bestowing their highest approval of Carney since he took office. Three-in-five (60%) say they approve of Carney, with one-third (34%) disapproving. Throughout 2025, Canadians’ response to U.S. threats was anger and looking for retaliatory policies from its government. Most in August (69%) wanted a “hard” approach for their government towards the U.S.
Carney had faced criticism at home for what appeared to be a more pragmatic approach to Trump, and jeers that his “elbows up” rhetoric from the election was not evident in his government’s policies.
The recent bump in approval perhaps suggests Canadians appreciate the more defiant tone from their prime minister in the wake of continued U.S. belligerence.
Related:
- Anger, betrayal and anxiety: Canadians say they’re ready to fight back after tariffs drive views of U.S. to new low
- Canadian resolve on trade negotiations hardens as country faces day one of increased tariffs
- Elbows? Maybe. But Carney approval definitely down, vote intention returns to near tie
Ahead of leadership review, Poilievre popular among CPC voters
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre began 2026 with an important weekend circled on his calendar: Jan. 29-31, the Conservative convention in Calgary where he will be the subject of a leadership review.
A year earlier it would seem unthinkable that Poilievre’s leadership would be questioned even by a review at a convention. He had the party poised on winning government with a comfortable advantage over the then-leaderless Liberals.
Carney’s election as Liberal leader sparked a remarkable political comeback for the incumbent party, leading to an election where Poilievre grew Conservative support but not enough to win the most seats. Months after the election loss, most Conservatives said they want Poilievre to stay on, but a growing number are expressing doubts that he should lead the party into the next election.
Related:
- Leadership race renews interest in Liberals – particularly under Carney – but CPC still leads comfortably
- Future of the CPC: A (declining) majority of Conservative voters would keep Poilievre as leader in January
Even still, Poilievre is a popular figure amongst his own party supporters. Four-in-five (80%) say they have a favourable view of Poilievre:
Regardless of support among his base, Poilievre has consistently struggled to broaden his appeal since he first was elected leader of the Conservatives in 2022. At most two-in-five Canadians held a favourable view of Poilievre. Typically, more than half of Canadians did not.
That remains the case. Three-in-five (58%) view Poilievre unfavourably, while one-third (36%) view him favourably:
Comparing the two
Poilievre’s struggle to widen the Conservative base is evident when comparing assessments of him to those of Carney. Poilievre does not earn many favourable views outside of the Conservative tent.
Comparatively, Carney performs better among his own party and also earns positive assessments from most NDP and Bloc Québécois voters, as well as one-in-four (26%) recent Conservative voters:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Recent Conservative electoral performances have been built on a base of support in Alberta and Saskatchewan. And Poilievre has typically held a personal advantage in assessments of his leadership against his Liberal counterparts, first former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and then Carney.
But that is no longer the case. In Alberta, as many have a positive view of Carney (46%) as Poilievre (47%), and in Saskatchewan, more approve of Carney’s performance (53%) than say they have a favourable view of Poilievre (45%).
This warming to Carney on the Prairies comes in the wake of two significant policy maneuvers: the memorandum of understanding between Carney and the UCP government under Premier Danielle Smith on a pipeline to the B.C. coast and the thaw in relations with China leading to a tariffs détente to the benefit of Saskatchewan canola and other agricultural products. More on the latter later this week.
Related:
- Crops or Cars? Majority favour cut to Chinese electric vehicle tariffs if it helps to secure canola access
- 60% could support an Alberta-BC pipeline nationally, but sign-off in Canada’s westernmost province no sure thing
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Poilievre’s struggles to close the favourability gap between men and women has been another persistent storyline of his leadership. Men older than 34 continue to be the most positive toward the Conservative leader, while women remain critical.
Meanwhile, a majority of all age and gender groups say they approve of Carney’s performance as prime minister, including two-thirds of both men (64%) and women (66%) older than 54, always a key electoral demographic:
Part Two: Top issues – start of 2025 vs. start of 2026
The first month of 2026 has seen a continuation of the issues now very familiar to Canadians. The global uncertainty driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation continues to be a central theme. But yet, the day-to-day issues prioritized by Canadians continue to be very domestic in nature. At the top, the high cost of living (chosen by 59%), followed by health care (39%), housing affordability (24%), and the economy broadly (24%). Rounding out the top five, and perhaps a nod to the continued disturbances emanating south of the border, is the broad category of international issues (17%).
A year ago, the list of Canadians’ concerns looked very similar, suggesting that although much has changed in the past 365 days, there is a continued focus from Canadians on issues that are close to home. These top issues are notably, identical to those chosen by Americans in Angus Reid polling last week to mark the first year of Trump’s second presidential term:
Part Three: Vote intention
Narrow lead for Liberals
Despite the challenges for Poilievre in widening his appeal among voters, the Conservatives remain competitive with Liberals in terms of vote intent. Currently, the situation to start the year looks like the one that ended it, with the Liberals holding a three-point advantage over the CPC and the NDP garnering support from one-in-10:
Regional story
The Liberal Party appears to have a solid base in Ontario and holds a 10-point advantage in vote intent, with the same story holding true in Quebec. The 49 per cent who would vote Liberal in Ontario are identical to the number that did so in last year’s federal election, though the 39 per cent support for the CPC is down four points, most of which appear to have moved to the NDP.
B.C. and Atlantic Canada are competitive, while the Prairies offer the CPC considerable support despite warming to Carney’s leadership:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Age and gender
Women over the age of 54 offer the Liberals its most concentrated advantage, with a majority (53%) saying they would vote for that party. Women of all ages, in fact, are most likely to choose the governing party, though the 18-to-34 group generates a heated rivalry among all three major parties.
Among men over 54, the Liberals and Conservatives are competitive, though the CPC hold a five-point lead. Men 35-to-54 offer the CPC its best levels of support:
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from January 23-26, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,420 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For Questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Senior Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org