Trumped Again?: 66% of Canadians say a second GOP presidential term would be ‘bad’ or ‘terrible’ for Canada

The Full Story

INDEX

Part One: Canadians dread Trump, the sequel

• What impact would a second Trump term have on Canada, America, and the globe?

• A Trump win viewed as bad or terrible for Canada by most

Part Two: Policy ramifications

• Immigration

• NATO spending

• Ukraine

• Supply Management

• Keystone XL

Part Three: Canadian political angles

• Poilievre trusted more than Trudeau to handle trade, but low confidence overall

Part One: Canadians dread Trump, the sequel

The United States of America presidential election has been shaken up considerably in recent weeks.  The assassination attempt on former U.S. President and Republican nominee for this year’s race Donald Trump reframed that half of the electoral race. The picture on the other side changed considerably with Biden’s withdrawal from the race.

While it remains to be seen if Harris prevails as the Democratic nominee, the presidential election remains a race of stark contrasts, leaving Canadians to wonder how their country will be affected by the results.

What impact would a second Trump term have on Canada, America, and the globe?

During Trump’s previous four-year term, Canadian opinions of the United States declined considerably on a number of fronts. They were much less likely to describe the United States as “a valuable friend and ally to Canada”, “a positive player in world affairs”, or a “progressive society” in 2020 than they were in 2016.

Related: Better with Biden? President-elect restores hope among Canadians for an improved relationship with U.S.

Like all summer blockbusters, the 2024 sequel to 2016 is just as dramatic. With a potential second Trump term looming, Canadians are worried again. Majorities believe another four years of Trump will have negative effects on global peace and stability (68%), progress in reducing greenhouse gases (67%), America’s unity (67%), the overall Canada-U.S. relationship (65%) and the Canadian economy (60%). On three of those factors – bringing America together, global peace, and fighting climate change – more than two-in-five Canadians believe a second Trump term will have “very negative” impacts:

There is some disagreement across the political divide in this country on prospect for Trump retaking power. Few likely Liberal, NDP or Bloc Québécois voters believe a Trump victory come November would have a positive effect on any of the factors canvassed.

However, there is a sizable portion of the current CPC voting base who disagree. More than two-in-five of those who would vote CPC if an election were held today say they believe Trump’s second term would have a positive impact on global stability. Approaching two-in-five (37%) say four more years of Trump would bring America closer together. There are also more than one-third (36%) of current CPC voters who believe Canada’s relationship with the U.S. would benefit if Trump won the presidential election:

A Trump win viewed as bad or terrible for Canada by most

Fewer than one-in-six (15%) Canadians would celebrate a Trump win in November’s election as “good” (9%) or “excellent” (6%) news for Canada. Many more would call it “terrible” (38%) or “bad” (28%).

Likely Liberal, NDP and BQ voters are much more likely to be in the latter group. Those who would vote CPC if an election were held today are more divided. Approaching two-in-five (37%) believe a new Trump administration would be “good” or “excellent news” for Canada, while nearly as many (34%) say it would “bad” or “terrible”:

Part Two: Policy ramifications

The recently concluded Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisc. provided significant insight into the policy priorities of the Trump campaign. Many have been key talking points for Trump as he has travelled throughout the country and given speeches at rallies to his supporters.

Immigration

The border and migrant crisis at America’s southern border with Mexico has been a focal point for Trump and addressing it is a key pillar of the 2024 Republican Party Platform. Trump has said he plans to “close (the United States’) borders” and carry out a “mass deportation” that he says will be the largest such effort in American history.

Canada would certainly be impacted by its southern neighbours’ immigration policy, which could potentially lead to more asylum seekers heading further north. Three-quarters (74%) of Canadians say they would prefer Canada “take the necessary measures” to prevent an influx of new refugees. One-quarter (26%) say instead Canada should welcome more migrants. Likely NDP voters are the only group of political supporters who prefer the latter at a majority level (53%):

NATO spending

Defence spending has become a pain point in the Canada-U.S. relationship even under Biden as Canada continues to underspend the two per cent of GDP it had agreed to as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member. Trump will likely intensify that pain point, as he has said he would “encourage (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who fell short of their spending commitments. At the recent NATO conference in Washington, D.C., Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country would reach the two per cent target by 2032 without detailing specifically how Canada would achieve that. It remains to be seen if this timeline would be enough to placate Trump.

Canadians are divided evenly on whether a Trump win should accelerate Canada’s defence spending plans.

Notably, likely CPC voters are much more likely to believe Canada should accelerate its plan to hit the NATO defence spending target, which stands in contrast to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s statements on the issue. Poilievre would not commit to hitting the two per cent defence spending target if he were to become prime minister in comments made in the wake of the NATO conference earlier in July, saying Canada “is broke” and he needs to make sure any financial commitments he makes are properly costed.

Ukraine

Trump and the Republican party’s stance on the war in Ukraine also is a stark departure from the current administration’s policies. Trump has vowed to end the war quickly if he wins in November, which potentially would involve suspending military aid to Kyiv unless it began peace negotiations with Russia. This could also set the battlelines as they are, which would likely involve Ukraine surrendering territory Russia has occupied.

If Trump were elected to a second term and he follows this path on Ukraine he has been signalling during the campaign, one-third (33%) of Canadians would want Canada to follow and urge Ukraine to negotiate for peace even if it meant surrendering territories. Two-thirds (67%) would prefer Canada continue to strongly support the Ukraine if the Americans stopped military aid, even if it meant Canada providing more financial support to help make up the gap.

The Canadian political divide that has been evident on the Ukraine war in recent months is also on display here. Overwhelming majorities of likely Liberal, NDP and BQ voters prefer Canada to continue supporting and even boost aid to Ukraine in the wake of a Trump withdrawal. CPC supporters are more divided:

Supply Management

Canada’s system of supply management, which protects Canada’s dairy, poultry and eggs industries through production and import controls and pricing mechanisms, proved to be a major sticking point when Canada sat down at the table with Mexico and the United States to draft the replacement agreement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) under the previous Trump administration. To pass the replacement deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA or CUSMA), Canada agreed to open up a percentage of its market to American dairy, a move which was heavily criticized by Canada’s dairy farmers.

Related:

• Trade, Trump and Tariffs: With supply management a key sticking point, Canadians divided over its future
• Inflation crisis has one-quarter asking for supply management system to be relaxed

USMCA is up for review in 2026, which means the next president of the U.S. will have a significant influence on how the negotiations will proceed. Biden’s top trade official has warned that the U.S. will push for changes, signalling it could be a contentious negotiation regardless of whether the Democratic nominee or Trump win the election in the fall.

Canadians lean towards protecting supply management in these upcoming negotiations, but 45 per cent prefer Canada making some sacrifices of the supply management system if it means smoother negotiations with our North American partners. Likely CPC voters are the only group of political supporters to hold the latter as a majority opinion (62%):

Keystone XL

One of Biden’s first acts when he took office in 2021 was to kill Keystone XL, a controversial pipeline project which lingered for years in limbo before Trump signed a presidential memorandum to build it in 2017. The project may get another look if Trump is re-elected as president. Notably, TC Energy, formerly TransCanada Corporation, the project’s owner, was a sponsor of the recent Republican National Convention.

Canadians are more likely to believe Keystone XL’s revival would be a good thing (46%) than a bad one (34%). Those in Alberta (67%) and Saskatchewan (64%) are more likely to cheer the return of Keystone XL, while only those in Quebec are more likely to think it would be a bad thing (46%) than a good one (29%):

Part Three: Canadian political angles

Poilievre trusted more than Trudeau to handle trade, but low confidence overall

Canada’s own near-term political future is murky. An election must take place by October 2025 and Canada’s incumbent minority government is trailing badly in current vote intentions.

Canadians are more likely to say Poilievre (32%) would get a stronger new trade deal than the incumbent Trudeau (20%), but there is little confidence in either leader. As many say neither is a good option on this front (32%) as select Poilievre.

The Conservative leader outperforms Trudeau greatly among men older than 34, while women are near evenly split between both party leaders and believe neither is a good choice at a plurality level:

Would Trump win change voters’ decision in Canada?

A second Trump term evidently presents both a potential sea change in policy south of the border, as well as challenge for Canada’s relationship with its neighbour, regardless of who is prime minister. The sense among a plurality of Canadians is that a second Trump term would not affect their vote (see detailed tables). However, there is some movement among those whose support is more “soft” than “firm”, i.e. those who are not fully committed to their current vote intention.

Soft NDP supporters are more likely than not to say they could support the Liberals in the event Trump wins re-election. For most non-fully committed voters, it appears a second Trump term would further entrench their current leanings: