Carney holds significant favourability advantage over Freeland among 2021 Liberal and NDP voters
February 18, 2025 – The Liberal leadership race is set, with five individuals vying to be the next prime minister, before likely heading into a close-to-immediate federal election campaign. While two key debates loom for the contenders next week, many centre-left voters are already keen to back one candidate in particular.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney surging as the hypothetical leader of the Liberals. With Carney at the head of the party, vote intention has tightened to a three-point gap between the Liberals and Conservatives, with 40 per cent supporting the latter and 37 per cent the former. This, seemingly at the cost of the New Democrats, who have lost half of their vote intention (21% to 10%) since late December. Under Carney, 42 per cent of 2021 NDP voters say they would support the Liberals, while 44 per cent would vote for the party again.
With Carney’s biggest rival in the race, former Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland as hypothetical leader, the NDP garners 16 per cent of vote intention instead of 10, and the Liberals drop from 37 per cent to 29 per cent.
This disparity is partially explained by several factors. Carney performs significantly better as Liberal leader when facing off against the other parties and leaders on top issues. He and CPC leader Pierre Poilievre are statistically tied as best to handle the economy, the cost of living, and the U.S. threat, when Canadians are asked to choose between the three major federal parties. With Freeland in place, Poilievre leads on the economy and cost of living, while Freeland and Poilievre are tied on U.S. relations.
Further, on net favourability (favourable minus unfavourable views), Carney scores a +70 among 2021 Liberal voters, a +43 among past NDP voters, and a +42 among past BQ voters. Freeland receives positive scores among all three, but at far lower levels (+18 Liberal, +4 NDP, +28 BQ).
More Key Findings:
- With Carney as hypothetical Liberal leader, vote intention in Ontario is tied (45% CPC, 44% Liberal). In Quebec, the Liberals split evenly with the Bloc Québécois (31% Liberal, 30% BQ) and lead the CPC by nine points.
- Poilievre has seen his unfavourable views rise to their highest level since taking over the party leadership. He is viewed unfavourably by 56 per cent of Canadians and favourably by 37 per cent.
- NDP leader Jagmeet Singh fares worst among all federal party leaders and hopefuls in net favourability, facing a -25 score. His favourability is positive only among young women.
- The top issues facing Canadians are reported to be the cost of living (52%), health care (39%), and relations with the United States (34%).
INDEX
Part One: Leadership
- With Trump as foil, Trudeau approval sees 12-point increase
- Views of Poilievre have worsened since summer
- Party leaders and hopefuls
- Carney scores favourability advantage across centre-left
Part Two: Who’s best on top issues?
Part Three: Carney leadership pull vote close to statistical tie
Part One: Leadership
With Trump as foil, Trudeau approval sees 12-point increase
U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office has upended much around the globe, perhaps no more so than the United States’ northern neighbour, which has undergone threats of tariffs and annexation. The response from Canadians has been a rebound in national pride – a 10-point jump in those who describe themselves as “very proud” to be Canadian – among other economic re-evaluations.
Related:
- Pride in Canada rebounds in face of Trump threat; working to reduce interprovincial trade barriers seen as key to response
- Energy Policy: Canadians’ priorities shift from environment to economic growth and domestic capacity
And perhaps Trump’s second term has also changed perspectives on outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose personal approval had bottomed out at 22 per cent prior to the announcement he was stepping aside to make way for a new leader ahead of this year’s federal election. One-third (34%) of Canadians now say they approve of the performance of Trudeau, the highest rating the prime minister has received on this metric since 2023:
Views of Poilievre have worsened since summer
Trump’s threats have also potentially upset the apple cart of messaging the rival Conservatives were pushing towards the next federal election. Prior to Trump taking office, the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre had focused on a “carbon tax election” and other affordability issues, a stance which had taken them to new highs in vote intention in the face of the unpopular Trudeau. Those issues, while prominent still, are less of a focus as Canadians stare down potentially economically devastating tariffs. More on top issues later in the release.
However, despite the party’s success in generating voter support, Poilievre had struggled to endear himself to Canadians. Consistently, at least half of Canadians said they had unfavourable views of the Conservative leader. Those negative assessments have trended up since the summer and are now held by 56 per cent of Canadians, the highest Poilievre’s unfavourability has been since he was first elected party leader in 2022:
Party leaders and hopefuls
Poilievre’s struggle to generate personal appeal among Canadians was part of a broader trend of the unpopularity of the leaders of the “big three” federal parties – the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives. In 50 years of public opinion data compiled by the Angus Reid Institute, the big three leaders had never been so negatively viewed as a collective.
Related: Canada’s national party leaders have never been less popular, and 50 years of data demonstrates that
The trend still holds – at least among those currently in the position of leadership. Unfavourable views outweigh favourable ones of Poilievre, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Perhaps change is on the horizon, with the Liberals preparing to replace Trudeau.
Liberal leadership hopeful, and former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney is viewed more positively than negatively, including among all age and gender demographics except men aged 35 to 54. That is not the case for his primary competitor for party leadership, former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. She is viewed more unfavourably than favourably by all age and gender groups:
Carney scores favourability advantage across centre-left
Carney holds another advantage over Freeland: he is viewed much more positively among 2021 Liberal, NDP and Bloc Québécois voters. Both candidates struggle to generate favourable views among those who voted Conservative in 2021, but Carney also performs better among that partisan group than Freeland:
Part Two: Who’s best on top issues?
The top two issues facing Canada over the past several years remain the same – the cost of living and health care – but a new top priority has emerged over the past two months as Trump has threatened the nation with tariffs and annexation. One-in-three Canadians (34%) are now focused on relations with the United States as a top issue:
With the Liberal leadership race still to run its course, many questions remain in the federal political picture. One thing is becoming clear, however: Carney is seen as capable on a number of top issues. Carney is trusted at an equal level compared to Poilievre when It comes to the economy, the cost of living, and relations with the United States. Importantly, however, he places third on health care behind the CPC and NDP, and trails behind the CPC on housing affordability. On this last issue, three-in-10 Canadians are unsure if anyone can really make much progress, but give the highest levels of preference to Poilievre and the Conservatives (33%):
With Freeland as leader, relations with the United States is viewed similarly, with her and Poilievre viewed close to evenly as best to take on Trump. That said, the Liberals fall well behind on the cost of living and the economy, areas of strength for Carney, while making up no ground on health care and housing affordability in the public view:
Part Three: Carney leadership pull vote close to statistical tie
As Canadians have focused on their patriotic spirit, due largely to threats from the American president, a sea change has taken place in the federal vote intention landscape. This is most evident in the hypothetical instance that Carney wins the Liberal leadership race in March. With Carney at the helm, the party pull to within three points, a near statistical tie given the sample size for this survey. With Freeland as leader, the Liberal vote outlook improves compared to final polling done with Trudeau as leader, but still sees a significant CPC advantage:
The trendline for these vote intention data is among the most dramatic one can imagine. With Carney as the hypothetical leader, the Liberals have seen a 21-point increase in vote intention since late December, while the New Democrats have lost half of their intended support. Comparatively, under Freeland, the Liberals have gained 13 while the NDP have lost six points.
In the hypothetical scenario with Carney as leader, the Liberals perform strongly in Ontario and Quebec, where they are in a statistical tie in vote intention with the CPC and BQ respectively. Freeland cedes ground in Ontario and Quebec to those two parties respectively when voters are presented with her as leader (see detailed tables). The Freeland Liberals also perform worse in Alberta (17% Liberal) compared to the Carney Liberals (27%). The two leaders generate the same support in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%), but neither potential leader makes much headway into the massive CPC lead in the Prairies.
In both hypotheticals, the CPC lead in B.C. (Carney: CPC +8; Freeland: CPC +15). While the NDP support shrinks overall in the Carney leadership scenario, it is at similar levels in B.C. under both Carney (17% NDP) and Freeland (18% NDP).
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Carney’s impact on NDP support is also evident when examining voter retention. The Carney Liberals effectively divide 2021 NDP supporters between the Liberals and the NDP. Under the Freeland Liberal scenario, the NDP retain 52 per cent of their 2021 vote and see 28 per cent go to the Liberals (see detailed tables).
The Carney Liberals are also much better positioned to retain the Liberals’ own 2021 vote. Under Carney, four-in-five (81%) say they would repeat their vote for the party. Under Freeland, 63 per cent say the same (see detailed tables).
METHODOLOGY:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 13-18, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,011 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For full report, including methodology, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
