What’s with that Liberal surge? Recent Grit switchers say it’s driven by Carney, Trump’s threats & the ‘ABC’ factor

Vote commitment among new Liberals far less solid than those who stuck with party through lows of 2024

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March 27, 2025 – The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune suffered by the NDP and Conservative Party of Canada in recent months have reversed the fortunes of the Liberal Party – at least for now – leaving many to wonder how we got here.

After leading comfortably in the polls for the better part of two years, the Conservative Party of Canada now faces an upward battle to regain even ground against new Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberals.

What happened?

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute provide some answers to these questions. Asked what their main reasons have been, voters who have switched to the Liberals since the beginning of the year, more than half (56%) say they are motivated by the new leader, Carney, about the same number who also say U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats have pushed them to support the incumbents. Three-in-10 (30%) say they believe the Liberals are the best way to prevent a Conservative government and this is one of the driving factors.

Where did they come from?

Among these “switchers” the largest group say they were formerly supporting the NDP (35%) while slightly fewer have jumped from the CPC (29%). A significant portion (16%) were undecided, while importantly, 12 per cent were Bloc Québécois voters, and have improved the Liberals chances in Quebec by their decision to swap.

And why?

One of the motivating factors is the elevated concern over U.S. relations and the threat of tariffs. Among those who have switched to the Liberals and those who supported the party before this year, more than half say that this issue is a top one for them, personally. This is approximately double the level of concern for that issue among non-Liberal supporters.

More Key Findings:

• The contending leaders for the position of prime minister are not well-viewed by now-Liberal switchers. Nine-in-10 view CPC leader Pierre Poilievre unfavourably (90%) while half (52%) say this of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.

• Only half of those who have switched to the Liberals since the beginning of the year say they are very committed (49%). Among those who already supported the party coming into the year the level of firm commitment rises to seven-in-10 (71%).

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

• A deep dive on Liberal switchers

• Who were they supporting before?

• Majority of switchers say Carney, Trump drove support change

• Switchers’ views of Singh, Poilievre

• Liberal supporters – and switchers especially – more concerned with U.S. relations than others

• Commitment a concern – half of switchers say they haven’t locked in vote

 

 

A deep dive on Liberal switchers

The federal Liberals have experienced a meteoric rise from the depths of a 16-per-cent vote share in late December 2024, a week before former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign, to the 46 per cent support and eight-point lead the party enjoys in the Angus Reid Institute’s initial campaign poll.

Related: Liberal lead over CPC increases to eight points, but is Carney’s house of dreams built on concrete or sand?

To explore the reasons behind the Liberal surge, ARI asked Liberal supporters how long they had been supporting the party – since 2025, after the resignation of Trudeau, or had they been intending to vote Liberal for longer than that?

Who were they supporting before?

Previous ARI data shows 2021 NDP voters have departed the party in droves – half (50%) of those who voted NDP in the previous election now say they intend to support the Liberals. When the Liberal support was at 16 per cent nationally, 21 per cent of Canadian voters said they were going to support the NDP. Now just seven per cent say the same.

More than a third (35%) of those who say they’ve switched their vote to the Liberals in 2025 say they were previously supporting the NDP, while three-in-ten (29%) say they had been supporting the Conservatives. At one point, the Conservatives had the support of 45 per cent of Canadians, but that has declined to 38 per cent in ARI’s most recent data. Among the CPC’s 2021 supporters, 13 per cent say they would vote Liberal if the election were held today.

Majority of switchers say Carney, Trump drove support change

Since the beginning of 2025, Trudeau stepped down and the Liberals elected former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to replace him as leader and prime minister. In Trudeau’s final days before announcing his resignation, his long declining personal popularity had hit rock bottom – one-in-five (22%) Canadians said they approved of his performance in the country’s top office.

Carney has entered the political scene with much more positive views; he is the only one of the three major national party leaders to have a net favourable rating. More than two-in-five (46%) Canadians say their views of him have improved in recent weeks.

He is also apparently one of the top driving factors behind this political sea change. A majority (56%) of Canadians who say they’ve switched to supporting the Liberals in 2025 say it is because of Carney.

The Trump factor – and his punishing tariffs and threats of annexation – is also cited by most switchers (51%). The “Anyone But Conservative” (ABC) factor also looms large. Three-in-ten (30%) say they are now supporting the Liberals because the party represents the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election:

For those who were previously supporting the NDP, Carney (52%), Trump (55%) and the ‘ABC’ factor (51%) are chosen as top reasons for their switch to the Liberals at near equal rates.

Half of former Conservative voters report a souring view of party leader Pierre Poilievre (46%) as impetus for changing allegiances:

Switchers’ views of Singh, Poilievre

Carney may be a pull for voters to the Liberals – nearly all switchers (97%) and those who were supporting the party before 2025 (94%) say they have a favourable view of the new Liberal leader (see detailed tables) – but a distaste for the alternatives may also provide a push. A majority of switchers say they have an unfavourable view of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (52%) and 90 per cent have a negative view of Poilievre.

That latter number is less negative than those who have been supporting the Liberals since before this year (96% unfavourable view of Poilievre), but Liberal switchers are more likely (63%) than longer-term supporters (52%) to say their view of Poilievre has worsened in recent weeks (see detailed tables).

Liberal supporters – and switchers especially – more concerned with U.S. relations than others

Trump’s stance towards Canada is a much-cited reason for those who have switched their vote to the Liberals this year. And relative to other Canadians, the issue of U.S. relations is of much higher importance to Liberal switchers. For longer-term Liberal supporters, relations with the U.S. (55%) and the cost of living (54%) are chosen at similar rates. Among Liberal switchers, there is a bigger gap between concerns over the U.S.-Canada relationship (56%) and cost of living (44%), which is still their second most chosen issue:

Across most of the issues ARI surveyed – Trump’s threats, the trade wars, protecting Canada’s economy, relations between Ottawa and the provinces, developing trade with countries other than the U.S. – nine-in-ten Liberal switchers believe Carney is much more equipped to handle them than Poilievre (see detailed tables). Switchers, however, are less convinced (66%) than long-time Liberal supporters (84%) that Carney is the best choice when it comes to reducing the cost of living. This perhaps provides an angle for the Liberals’ opponents to pull some of their support back.

Commitment a concern – half of switchers say they haven’t locked in vote

The Liberals’ trail Conservatives when it comes to the commitment of its base overall – 72 per cent of likely CPC voters say they will “definitely” stick with their choice through the election, compared to 51 per cent of Liberals who say the same. This commitment deficit is fueled largely by Liberal switchers. Seven-in-ten (71%) who say they continued supporting the party through the lows of 2024 are “very committed” to following through and voting for the Liberals this campaign; half (49%) of switchers express the same level of commitment:

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 21-24, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,400 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. 

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For PDF of full release, click here.

For the questionnaire, click here.