Liberal lead over CPC increases to eight points, but is Carney’s house of dreams built on concrete or sand?

Liberal supporters continue to express less commitment to their party of choice than CPC voters

March 24, 2025 – As party leaders travel across the country on the campaign hustings, the Liberal plane appears to have more lift than those of their political rivals.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberals’ turnaround continues to climb in elevation, boosting the party to an eight-point lead (46% to 38%) over the Conservatives.

The governing party’s rise has been driven by the collapse of the NDP vote – now standing at seven per cent. Half (50%) of 2021 NDP voters plan on voting for the Liberals if the election were today.

The Liberals have also benefitted from a renewed popularity in Quebec – half (49%) of Quebecers say they plan to vote Liberal – and especially in Montreal, where they garner two-thirds (64%) support. This has come at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, who find their support nearly halved from December (11% to 6%) and suffering from a flight of 2021 voters (23% intend to vote Liberal).

There is also no doubt that the switch from the tremendously unpopular leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the much-more liked Mark Carney has played a significant role in the Liberals’ rise from their support ditch. Approaching half (46%) of Canadians say their opinion of Carney has improved in recent weeks, as a majority (54%) view him favourably. He is also the only national party leader who has a net positive rating on both those metrics.

In a sea of green flags for the Liberals, a red one looms large. The Conservatives continue to hold an advantage in voter commitment. Three-quarters (72%) of those who would support Pierre Poilievre’s party say they are firmly committed to that choice, compared to the half (51%) of Liberal voters who say the same. While support for the Conservatives has certainly fallen from its peak seen in December, the above data is perhaps evident that the party has a high floor, while Liberal support may or may not be at the crest of the wave.

More Key Findings:

• Three-quarters (72%) of Canadians describe this election as “way more important” than 2021’s. Typically, Canadians are more likely to say the current election is more important than the previous one, but not at this rate. In 2021, 35 per cent described that year’s election as “way more important” than 2019’s; 43 per cent in 2019 said that election was “way more important” than 2015’s.

• The Liberals have doubled or nearly doubled their support in the country’s three largest cities from December. In Metro Vancouver, vote intention for the Liberals has risen from 27 per cent to 50 per cent in that time. In the downtown core of Toronto and the outer ring, it has risen from 27 per cent to 56 per cent and 25 per cent to 52 per cent respectively. Liberal vote intention has grown from one-third (34%) in Montreal in December to 64 per cent now.

• Current NDP (58%) and Bloc (63%) supporters are less likely to describe this election as “way more important” than the 2021 campaign than likely CPC (76%) or Liberal (79%) voters.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Part One: Vote intention

• By age and gender

• Close race in B.C., Liberal lead in Ontario and Quebec

• The Liberals’ metro ascension

Part Two: Retention, commitment, and importance

• Most and least committed voters

• Three-quarters say this election ‘way more important’ than 2021’s

Part Three: Leadership and momentum

• Positive momentum for Carney

Part Four: Top issues

Part One: Vote intention

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit Sunday to Governor General Mary Simon was the starting gun for a whirlwind, 37-day election campaign – one day longer than the minimum possible required by the Elections Act. Carney had good reason both to call an election and shorten the campaign period: his Liberal party has seen a remarkable turnaround in electoral fortunes that began with the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and has continued after Carney was elected by his party to replace the embattled PM.

As the campaign officially begins, Carney and the Liberals enter with a growing advantage between them and the rival Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre. There are now eight points separating the Liberals, with 46 per cent of vote intention, and the Conservatives, with 38 per cent.

The Liberals’ rise has coincided with the downfall of the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh, who has seen their December support of 21 per cent evaporate to seven per cent currently. The Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet have also suffered as support for the Liberals has grown. Support for the Quebec-only party has nearly halved from December to six per cent:

By age and gender

The Liberals under Carney have built a broad base of support that crosses age and gender lines. At least two-in-five of every demographic say they would vote Liberal if the election were today, including three-in-five (58%) of women older than 54. The CPC perform best among men older than 34, a plurality of whom say they support Poilievre’s party:

Close race in B.C., Liberal lead in Ontario and Quebec

Declining support for the Bloc Québécois has put the Liberals in pole position in Quebec with half (49%) of vote intention in that province. The Liberals also hold a seven-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario.

The picture in Atlantic Canada is similar to historical results in that part of the country for the Liberals. Over the previous three elections, the Liberals have captured between 24 and all 32 of the seats available in the Atlantic region.

Meanwhile, the collapse of the NDP vote has turned B.C. from a three-way race, as it traditionally has been, into a head-to-head contest between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

The Conservatives perform best in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as has been the case previously:

The Liberals’ metro ascension

The remarkable reversal of fortune for the Liberals is perhaps most evident in the country’s biggest cities: Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. If the election were held today, the Liberals would capture at least half of the vote in all three.

In both the 416 and 905 area codes of Toronto, Carney’s Liberals have doubled their vote compared to the nadir of support seen in December under Trudeau.

In Montreal, the Liberals’ likely vote share has grown from one-third (34%) to two-thirds (64%) in three months.

In Metro Vancouver, the Liberals have a 20-point lead (50% to 30%) over the Conservatives:

Part Two: Retention, commitment, and importance

The NDP’s bus is more than leaking oil – the engine might have fallen out. While part of the story of the Liberals’ rise has been estranged 2021 voters returning to the party after the departure of Trudeau – in December just two-in-five (41%) said they were intending to repeat their vote for the Liberals – it has also been fueled by the flight of 2021 NDP supporters. Just one-third (35%) of 2021 NDP voters say they will vote for the party again this election, while half (50%) say they intend to support the Liberals.

The Carney Liberals have also pulled a small fraction of 2021 Conservative voters – one-in-eight (12%) – putting a dent in the Conservative vote retention, which had stood at 89 per cent in December.

Further, the Liberals’ current success in Quebec is partially driven by one-quarter (23%) of those who voted Bloc in 2021 saying they intend to vote for the incumbent Liberals in this election:

Most and least committed voters

The Liberals under Carney have trimmed away at the edges of Conservative support, but vote intention for Poilievre’s party is in line with the 37 per cent seen in September 2022, when the Conservatives first took a lead over the Liberals under Trudeau. This is perhaps evidence of the solidity of the base and the party’s high floor. Case in point: three-quarters (72%) of current CPC voters say they are “very committed” to supporting the party this election. Half (51%) of Liberal supporters say the same.

Meanwhile, the NDP’s small portion of remaining voters are the least committed of all party groups, with one-third (32%) saying they plan to follow through on their current intention to vote for Singh’s party.

It is worth noting, too, that half (47%) of current Liberal voters say their second choice is the NDP, while one-in-ten (10%) say it is the Conservatives. This suggest that the Liberals may suffer if voters change their minds, but the Conservatives may not benefit. For current Conservative supporters, three-in-five (57%) say they have no second choice (see detailed tables).

Three-quarters say this election ‘way more important’ than 2021’s

The existential threat both to Canada’s economy and sovereignty posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, his tariffs and repeated “51^st state” musings is evidently not lost on Canadians. Three-quarters (72%) say this election is “way more important’ than the 2021 campaign.

While typically Canadians are more likely to view the current election as more important than the former, these data represent a much stronger opinion that this election is of high import when compared to data taken in 2019 and 2021:

The support woes of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois are perhaps tied to this sense of import. Overwhelming majorities of CPC (76%) and Liberal (79%) supporters believe this election is “way more important” than the 2021 edition, while there is less urgency among likely NDP (58%) and BQ (63%) voters:

Part Three: Leadership and momentum

The Liberal Party’s electoral case has been aided by the relatively positive views of its leader compared to his peers. A majority (54%) of Canadians have a favourable view of Carney; most have unfavourable ones of Poilievre (59%) and Singh (58%). Notably, the standing of the latter two has not improved over the course of the last few months as Canadians have fretted over their country’s response to Trump and the deterioration of U.S. relations. In December, 55 per cent had a negative view of Poilievre; 58 per cent had a negative one of Singh.

Although Blanchet has a positive net rating in Quebec, he trails in his province to Carney, who is viewed favourably by three-in-five (61%, see detailed tables).

Positive momentum for Carney

Views of Carney are also on the upswing. Approaching half (46%) of Canadians say their opinion of Carney has improved in recent weeks, including one-in-five (20%) 2021 Conservative voters, a majority (56%) of past NDP voters, and half (47%) of those who voted for the Bloc last election (see detailed tables).

Regarding his main rival, Poilievre, Canadians are most likely to say their opinion of him is unchanged (50%), while a minority of one-in-eight (13%) say their opinion has improved. That latter group is mostly made up of either current CPC supporter (37% improved) or 2021 party supporters (27%) and contains few of the past Liberal (4%), NDP (2%) or Bloc (5%) voters the CPC likely need to improve support for the party (see detailed tables).

Part Four: Top issues

The top five issues as the election campaign begins are the same as they were three weeks ago, prior to Carney winning the Liberal leadership race. However, concern over the cost of living and U.S. relations have both risen, largely at the expense of health care, which has become the third most chosen priority. In many ways, cost of living and U.S. relations are related issues as tariffs have increased the price for many goods.

The Conservatives are currently working at a deficit to the Liberals when it comes to convincing Canadian voters that they are the best choice to address these top issues. Carney continues to be viewed as the best leader to handle Canadians’ top concerns and has in fact widened his lead over Poilievre across the board. That said, on the issue most important to Canadians, the cost of living, it is notable that Carney’s perceived advantage is lowest relative to other areas:

Survey Methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 21-24, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,400 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. 

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.