New Liberal leader will face an electorate looking for answers to financial and health care challenges
January 7, 2025 – This week Canadians received the news that many have been expecting for weeks, that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would be resigning his position as Liberal leader. Alongside this, parliament will be prorogued until March 24.
As the Liberals search for a new face of the party, Canadians can take a moment to look back at their seventh longest serving prime minister. For the Angus Reid Institute, which celebrated its 10th anniversary in October, this is an opportunity to go back through data we have been chronicling alongside his term.
The 2015 federal election campaign risked being an afterthought in the annals of political history. Tom Mulcair led the surging NDP against Stephen Harper’s incumbent Conservatives, with Trudeau and the Liberals trailing in a distant third. As the summer heat faded the cool October air brought with it the final days of campaigning from the three party leaders and Trudeau was able to capture Canadians “hearts”, if not their heads. This connection and a key promise to spend into deficit propelled the Liberals and Trudeau to a majority government. Trudeau ended the campaign as the only leader enjoying positive momentum in the eyes of voters and dominated among younger people.
Trudeau’s early days were defined by majority approval. He held positive appraisal for two years before slipping to 49 per cent in December 2017. At the halfway mark of his first term, there were plenty of legislative wins for Trudeau. Canadians supported his government’s idea for a federal carbon tax, they were enthusiastic about marijuana legalization, and they applauded changes to the middle-income tax bracket.
Syrian refugee resettlement policy and the government’s failure to implement its promise of electoral reform, however, chipped away at portions of the previous Trudeau supporters. This, and a fading love affair with deficits portended a challenge ahead.
His first major scandal hit in 2019, when Trudeau was found to have violated the Conflict of Interest Act after improperly influencing then-Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in a criminal case against Quebec-based construction firm SNC-Lavalin. Wilson-Raybould stepped down; Trudeau stayed. He and his Liberal Party lost the popular vote later that year but held on to enough seats to form a minority government, defeating Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, largely due to uninspired voters preferring to block the CPC.
In 2020, Canadians appreciated Trudeau’s leadership during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. In May of that year his approval rose above the majority mark again, to 55 per cent, but another high-profile scandal hit that summer. Trudeau was cleared of wrongdoing, but it was found that his former Finance Minister Bill Morneau had breached federal ethics rules in dealing with WE Charity. Both the Trudeau and Morneau families were found to have ties to the organization, which was granted a $43-million contract to run a near-billion dollar student grant program.
As the COVID-19 pandemic endured, Canadians’ goodwill toward their provincial and federal governments dissipated. Importantly, it wasn’t vaccine mandates or restrictions that drove this, both of those aspects of government policy were overwhelmingly popular for a long period. Inflation rose, and already difficult health care and housing affordability challenges became even more intense.
After COVID-19 faded from view, Trudeau and his government were left with these challenges, and enthusiasm from Canadians toward the government waned. The Liberals managed again to won an election where they received the second highest vote total, defeating an unresonating Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives in 2021 to form a second minority government.
The Liberals signed a Supply and Confidence Agreement with the New Democrats, but the confidence Canadians had in Trudeau never returned to previous levels. New Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre – though failing himself to generate much positive opinion – has proven capable of highlighting the challenges Canadians have faced in recent years. Inflation hit its highest mark in 40 years in 2022, and the carbon tax Canadians liked in theory was no longer a source of enthusiasm in the fight against climate change. The federal government announced billions in health care funding at the outset of 2023, but that did little to overcome the barriers Canadians said they were facing in accessing care. In response to increasing criticism about immigration and the housing supply, the government announced in October it would be decreasing immigration over the next two years.
The final straw (evidently) came in December, when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland broke with Trudeau, resigning her position and suggesting the government may not be “working for” Canadians. Freeland stated that the government be focused on an upcoming potential “tariff war” with President Donald Trump, something the next prime minister will need to turn their attention to quickly.
With Trudeau stepping away, Canadians are largely disillusioned with the way things are going in the country, and will be looking to the new Liberal leader, alongside two other quite unpopular federal figures, Poilievre and New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, to reverse some persistent negative trends. Three-in-five Canadians (61%) say they’re pessimistic about the future of the country, a 24-point jump from 2016 (37%).
INDEX
Part One: Trudeau’s final days as PM
- Declining approval and electoral fortunes
- Majority say they’re pessimistic about the future of Canada
Part Two: Canada’s changing priorities
- Top issues then vs. top issues now
- The economy – Canadians’ optimism and pessimism
- Some progress on child poverty, but income inequality still a concern
- Health care – a system deteriorated
- Crime and safety – concern rising
- Immigration rises as top issue post pandemic
- Canada’s international reputation
Part One: Trudeau’s final days as PM
Justin Trudeau’s time as prime minister is nearing its end after he announced he would prorogue parliament to allow the Liberal party to select a new leader and prime minister. His hand was forced by a crisis of confidence of both his own caucus and the House of Commons. The former had grown increasingly vocal in its discontent after the resignation of Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, while the latter is poised to defeat Trudeau’s minority government whenever the house resumes sitting.
Declining approval and electoral fortunes
Trudeau leaves at the nadir of his personal popularity – fewer than one-quarter (22%) of Canadians approve of his performance. In the early days of his only majority government, two-thirds of Canadians believed he was doing well in the country’s top job. While he did receive a boost in his popularity during the pandemic, he was never able to match those early highs and spent much of his time in office with more disapproving of his performance than approving:
Trudeau’s decline in personal popularity has been matched with a decline in electoral fortunes for his Liberal party. If an election were held today, one-in-six (16%) Canadians say they would vote for the Liberals, a far cry from the 39.47 per cent of the vote the Liberals received when the party won a majority government in 2015 and half the support it received sealing back-to-back minorities in the 2019 and 2021 elections.
Majority say they’re pessimistic about the future of Canada
Trudeau also departs from the prime minister’s office as Canadians increasingly express negativity about the state of the country. Whether it’s the housing affordability crisis, a deteriorating health-care system, or an overall polarizing state of the country’s politics, Canadians are voicing less pride in the country. They also don’t see it trending in a better direction in the future. A majority (61%) say they are pessimistic about the future of Canada, an increase of 24 points from the proportion who said the same during Trudeau’s first term as prime minister in 2016:
Part Two: Canada’s changing priorities
Top issues then vs. top issues now
Canadians’ top concerns are not the same as they were when Trudeau was first elected in 2015. There were two terrorist incidents in 2014 committed by Islamic extremists, raising terrorism as a concern for the 2015 election which brought Trudeau to power with a majority Liberal government. Still the economy remained paramount, with a specific eye to the unemployment rate, which was elevated, but was trending downwards from marks seen earlier in the 2010s. As time went on, government spending rose as a concern. The deficit grew in Trudeau’s early years after the previous government under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper had almost closed the gap between government spending and revenue during his terms in office.
Climate change and the environment was a particular focus for Trudeau’s government and 2019 was the first year of implementation of the carbon tax, the government’s signature environmental policy. It happened to coincide with Canadians’ growing concern with climate change. That year, Canada declared a climate emergency and the issue was elevated by teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who as named TIME Person of the Year in 2019
Concern over the environment faded as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, and worry over the cost of living and specifically housing affordability grew:
The economy – Canadians’ optimism and pessimism
As evidenced above, the rising cost of living has become a key concern for Canadians in the post-pandemic era. In 2022, inflation rose to a 39-year high, and Canadians are still dealing with the ripple effects of higher prices for necessities such as groceries. For a two-year period ending just this last quarter, more Canadians reported feeling “worse off” financially than they were the previous year than reported they managed to hold their economic ground. This was not the case earlier in Trudeau’s term, when a majority believed they at least kept pace financially with the cost of living.
There are positive signs for whoever steps into the office next as the proportion of Canadians saying they fell behind financially over the past 12 months has declined to a rate not seen since 2021:
During that period of high inflation which perhaps helped shape the desire for change in government in Canada, more Canadians were pessimistic of their economic future than there were in the early Trudeau years. Again, however, there are positive signs, as in the most recent quarter of data, Canadians’ economic optimism and pessimism are near identical to levels seen when Trudeau first took over:
Some progress on child poverty, but income inequality still a concern
Addressing childhood poverty was an early focus for Trudeau’s Liberal government. The Canada Child Benefit was introduced in 2016 and initially decreased the number of Canadian families living below the poverty line. But advocacy groups are concerned that child poverty is on the rise again in the country. According to Statistics Canada, there are a lower proportion of Canadian households with children living in poverty. But there has been an increase in childless households struggling with low incomes:
Health care – a system deteriorated
Health care falls under the management of provincial governments but remains a national concern. Trudeau’s government increased the health transfer to provinces in 2023 to help address a system seen by many as deteriorating in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2015, one-in-six (16%) Canadians believed the quality of health care in the system had improved compared to the previous decade. In 2023, half (8%) said the same, while more than two-thirds (68%) instead say it has worsened:
Crime and safety – concern rising
“Stop the crime” has become one of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s repeated three-word phrases as he has taken aim at the record of the Canadian government under Trudeau. It has risen as a priority in the eyes of Canadians since Trudeau first took office:
Violent crime has increased in the country under the Liberals. According to Statistics Canada’s crime severity indices, both non-violent and violent crime have increased over the past nine years. Although it is worth noting that overall, crime is below levels seen earlier this century. The crime severity index, which dates back to 1998, peaked in 1999 at 118.84.
After facing criticism for inaction on crime, Trudeau’s government changed bail rules to place the onus on defendants to prove why they should be released.
Immigration rises as top issue post pandemic
Trudeau’s government increased immigration to record levels partially to address a post-pandemic worker shortage. However, it has led to questions to the effects of high immigration on Canada’s infrastructure especially housing. Concern over immigration had declined to single digits but has jumped in recent months:
Canada’s international reputation
The issue of Canada’s defence spending is providing the perhaps most glaring drag on the country’s international reputation. Trudeau’s government has committed to reaching the two per cent target as set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but after years of criticism for not following through. And, even as recently as 2023, Trudeau reportedly privately told NATO officials the country would “never” reach the target.
The focus on defence spending has also obscured what has been a significant decline in peacekeeping operations, which had once been a key element of Canada’s foreign policy.
Trudeau’s early terms saw a rise in Canadians who believed that the country’s international reputation had improved. Last year, however, half (49%) said Canada’s reputation is worse than it was 10 years ago:
Image Credit – Justin Trudeau Facebook
