Proportion of those ‘Thriving’ up six points over the past 18 months, but there are more ‘Struggling’ too
March 21, 2024 – When the federal government releases its 2024 budget, pundits and observers will talk politics. What does this mean for a future election? How does this affect the ongoing confidence and supply agreement between the minority Liberal government and the NDP?
Many Canadians, however, will be more interested in the extent to which budget measures affect their lives – if at all.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute tell a tale of the “have and have-nots”.
Over the past 18 months both the Struggling and Thriving groups on ARI’s Economic Stress Index have seen their ranks grow. The Struggling, from 25 to 29 per cent as a proportion of the population and the Thriving from 19 to 25 per cent. This, as the middle groups, the Comfortable and Uncomfortable have shrunk.
Those worst off are expecting an even worse 12 months ahead. Three-in-five (61%) within the Struggling group say while their finances currently pose a challenge, the situation will have deteriorated further a year from now. As half of Canadians continue to struggle with grocery costs, and two-in-five have difficulty with housing costs, among the Struggling, these challenges are near-unanimously felt.
On the other side of this coin, almost none of the Thriving expect to be worse off next year, and in fact, three-in-five say they expect even better. Their housing, food, and debt related challenges are minimal.
The Struggling and the Uncomfortable, making up half of the Canadians population overall, are more likely to be concentrated in the 35 to 54 age group, where that proportion rises to three-in-five. Children may be a factor here, too. For those with children in their household, the number who Struggle is eight points higher compared to those who do not have kids in their home (34% vs 26%).
While eyes will turn to the federal government for policies and initiatives to improve the Canadian financial outlook, many of the worst off have moved toward the Conservative Party in vote intention.
Among the Struggling, 50 per cent would vote for the CPC if an election were held, while 21 per cent would vote for the NDP and fewer for the Liberals. Across the Economic Stress Index, support for the Liberals rises as finances improve, while support for the CPC falls. Those best off, the Thriving, offer equal support to both parties (30% Liberal, 28% CPC)
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: The Struggling and others on the Economic Stress Index
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Top issues for the financially stressed
Part Two: The economic mood
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A huge divide between the Haves and Have-Nots
Part Three: Keeping up with the basics
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Half struggle with grocery costs; hope on the horizon?
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Housing costs
Part Four: The Struggling turn to the CPC
Part One: The Struggling and others on the Economic Stress Index
The federal government will release its 2024 budget on April 16, where it is expected that housing and affordability will be a major focus. Announcements of new dental and pharmacare programs have already preceded this year’s budget, as a condition of continuing support for the minority Liberal government from Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Many details for those programs, however, remain to be shared, including eligibility for access. The Liberals face a dual challenge, with Canadians reportedly supportive of balancing the budget but with many looking for financial relief too.
Indeed, half of Canadians continue to comprise either the Struggling (29%) or the Uncomfortable (22%) when it comes to ARI’s Economic Stress Index. These groups are formed based on their economic perspectives, their self-professed debt level, and their ability to pay for groceries and housing costs. See more on the Index here. Over the past 18 months, the Thriving have increased by six points, while the Struggling have increased by a similar amount, from 25 to 29 per cent of the population:
Not all lower income households are Struggling or Uncomfortable, but there is certainly a correlation between income and placement on the Index. Even among those in the higher income brackets, however, one-in-five say they face significant financial stress:
Regionally, New Brunswick leads the nation in reported financial stress, which is particularly notable given that the province is scheduled to hold an election this October. Quebec is the only region where the Thriving exceed 24 per cent as a proportion of the population:
Those most stressed are Canadians in the middle of their working lives and potentially child raising. Among 35- to 54-year-olds the proportion of the Struggling is at its highest (see detailed tables). As one might anticipate, those who have kids in their household are significantly more likely to face financial stress:
Top issues for the financially stressed
While the top three issues in Canada are largely agreed upon, there are important divergences among those with different economic realities. The Thriving, for example, still choose the cost of living as a top two issue but do so at much lower levels than others. Seven-in-ten (71%) among the Struggling say this is a key issue for the government to focus on, compared to 42 per cent among the Thriving. Climate change drops precipitously as a focus for those worst off, and taxes are of heightened importance:
Part Two: The economic mood
As inflation shows signs of abating, coming in lower than expected for the second straight month in February, Canadians are offering slightly better reports of their own economic situation. After peaking at 47 per cent, the proportion of Canadians saying they are worse off now than they were 12 months ago has dropped five points. That said, this proportion remains elevated compared to 2021 and prior:
Optimism for the coming year remains at a similar level compared to 2021, 2022, and 2023. This, a notable departure from the relatively rosy views noted at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic:
A huge divide between the Haves and Have-Nots
On this measure of optimism, Canadians appear to be on different planets. For those who are best off, the expectation is improvement or at least more of the same. For those who are worst off, a further diminishing is forecast:
Part Three: Keeping up with the basics
Half struggle with grocery costs; hope on the horizon?
Grocery costs have been a key focus of Canadians and their governments in recent years. This, after more than a 21 per cent increase over a three-year period. Prices have slowed, with grocery costs falling below overall inflation in February, rising by just 2.4 per cent year over year. Correspondingly, ARI notes a four-point increase in those saying that their grocery costs are manageable this quarter:
Those whose household income level falls below $100,000 annually are still more likely to say their grocery costs are a source of difficulty than ease, while even one-in-three among the higher income brackets voice some challenges in keeping up with their household food needs:
Housing costs
The core driver of inflation and likely a key emphasis of forthcoming budgets at the provincial and federal levels is the cost of housing. The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady again in its most recent announcement, which means that relief for some mortgage holders is still further off. This, as rent prices soared in 2023. A similar number of Canadians continue to say that housing costs are a challenge:
The proportion of those saying housing costs are “very difficult” to handle peaks at 17 per cent in Alberta, twice the level reported in Quebec:
Part Four: The Struggling turn to the CPC
The Conservative Party of Canada has surged into “government in waiting” territory in vote intention. Recent ARI polling has the CPC holding a near 20-point advantage. From an Economic Stress perspective, the party holds an advantage among all groups other than the Thriving, where the vote is divided. Among the Struggling, fully half (50%) say they would vote for the CPC, while the second largest group are would-be NDP voters (21%). With spending priorities to be laid out next month, the Liberal Party has significant work to do to bring the economically stressed back into the fold:
Methodology
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from February 28 – March 6, 2024, among a representative randomized sample of 4,550 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
To read the questionnaire, click here.
Image Credit – Flickr, Carissa Rogers
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
