Two-in-five say their premier does a “poor job” standing up to Ottawa; Moe, Kinew, Smith fare best
July 19, 2024 – From slamming the Trudeau government for allegedly encroaching too far into matters of provincial jurisdiction to a lawsuit aimed at equalization reform, this week’s gathering of provincial premiers in Halifax echoed one theme: a harder line with Ottawa.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute indicates it’s an approach Canadians back.
Half (51%) say they want their provincial government to stand-up for their province’s interests even if it means disagreement with Ottawa. One-third (35%) would go further and believe their province should do what it takes to defend provincial interests, including refusing to participate in federal initiatives to make a point – a now-common tactic of governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Indeed, it is residents of those two provinces (48% in Alberta, 58% in Saskatchewan) who are most supportive of a “tough” approach.
Premiers of those two provinces – Alberta’s Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe – are also rated (relatively) highly by their residents when it comes to how well they are doing defending their province’s interests to the federal government. Two-in-five (42%) in Alberta say Smith is doing a good or excellent job on this front; half (47%) in Saskatchewan say the same of Moe. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew (56%) performs best on this metric, though having served for the least amount of time in that position.
When it comes to the federal side of the coin, majorities believe the leaders of the three main federal parties care little, if at all, for the interest of their provinces. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is most likely to be viewed as caring “a great deal” or “a fair amount” (36% combined) about provincial priorities, boosted by a majority in Alberta (55%) and Saskatchewan (54%) who believe this to be the case.
Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau scores six points lower on this measure at 30 per cent. At least two-thirds in every province say the PM cares only a bit or not at all about their province’s interests.
Click below to see Key Takeaways from the data
One-third (35%) want their province to go further with a “tough” approach, such as refusing to participate in federal initiatives to make a point.
Half in Ontario say Ford is doing a poor job, while half in Atlantic Canadians also rate their premiers poorly.
Poilievre performs best, but outside of Saskatchewan and Alberta only a minority believe he cares “a great deal” or a “fair amount” about their province’s interests.
Only one-in-five (21%) say their MP is doing an “excellent” or “good” job.
The Full Story
INDEX
Part One: Canadians and their leadership
Few Canadians feel any federal leader cares about their province
Part Two: Canadians assess MPs and premiers on representing their province’s interests
Constituents say Kinew, Moe, Smith doing best job; Ford worst
Across all major parties, one-quarter or fewer say MPs doing a good job
Part Three: What’s the best way to ensure better treatment?
Half say take a “firm” approach with feds, one-in-three say play hardball
Alberta, Saskatchewan most likely to say separation threat an effective tactic
Part One: Canadians and their leadership
Canada today is in a state of widespread dissatisfaction. The percentage of Canadians “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today has grown by 13 points since 2019 to 72 per cent. A majority in every province expresses frustration with the state of the country. There is also a strong sense that the federal government is not focused on the important issues. In January, a majority said they did not believe the federal government cared about the issues important to them. That too is a majority sentiment in every province except Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, at no time in the past 50 years have the country’s three major party leaders been as unpopular as this current set.
Related:
- State of the Nations: Is there room for political compromise in Canada? Even on this, Canadians are evenly split
- Confederational Fairness: As premiers meet, which provinces say they get more, or less, out of federation?
- Canada’s national party leaders have never been less popular, and 50 years of data demonstrates that
Few Canadians feel any federal leader cares about their province
As frustration builds, there appears to be a disconnect between the extent to which federal leaders across the political spectrum are dialed into the interested of their own respective provinces. At most, one-third of Canadians say any of Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh cares “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about the priorities of their province.
Poilievre performs best of the three, but belief that he cares “a great deal” or a “fair amount” about Canadians’ province is concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Singh tops out at most with two-in-five in B.C. (41%) and Ontario (41%), while no more than 36 per cent in any province believe Trudeau cares “a great deal” or “a fair amount” about their province’s priorities:
Part Two: Canadians assess MPs and premiers on representing their province’s interests
Constituents say Kinew, Moe, Smith doing best job; Ford worst
The federal party leaders are one lane of the main street of relations connecting Ottawa to the provinces. Premiers provide the other and assessments of their performance varies. Relatively new Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew (56% excellent or good job) and veteran Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe (48% excellent or good job) fair best among their own provincial residents in terms of “promoting and defending” their provinces’ interests. Recently, Kinew urged Canada to hit the two-per-cent NATO defence spending target sooner rather than later, framing it as a potential “trade irritant” between Canada and the U.S.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is seen by Albertans to be the most divisive on this front, which is perhaps due to the adversarial stance she’s taken against Ottawa since she took over from former Premier Jason Kenney. Two-in-five (42%) say she is doing a good or excellent job defending her province’s interests in Canada, the third most in the country, but as many (43%) say she is doing poorly.
The most negative reviews come from Ontarians on Premier Doug Ford (50%) and those in Atlantic Canada, half (48%) of whom say their premier is doing a poor job representing their interests nationally:
On average, there is more belief from Canadians that their premier is representing their province’s interests in Ottawa than their federal MPs. Just one-in-five (21%) Canadians believe their local MP is doing a “good” or “excellent” job defending their provincial interests in Ottawa; more – three-in-ten (31%) – say they are doing a “poor” job instead. Belief that local MPs are selling their provincial interests short outweighs the sense that they are promoting provincial interests in every province in the country except Manitoba:
Across all major parties, one-quarter or fewer say MPs doing a good job
Criticism of MPs and how they are representing their local interests appears to be a cross-partisan complaint. While 2021 Conservative voters are most critical of their local MPs and whether they are defending their province’s interests in Ottawa, at most one-quarter past Liberal voters (24%) and one-in-five (20%) past NDP voters say their MP is doing a good or excellent job promoting their province:
Part Three: What’s the best way to ensure better treatment?
Half say take a “firm” approach with feds, one-in-three say play hardball
Given this environment where many believe their province’s interests are not well-represented in Ottawa, how do Canadians believe their province should approach the relationship with the federal government? A majority say the province should take a “firmer” approach, even if it means some disagreement between their province and Ottawa. Few – one-in-six (15%) – prefer their province avoid conflict. One-third (35%) believe that it is necessary to take a harder line approach, which would include refusal to participate in federal initiatives to make a point.
The latter is the strategy a majority in Saskatchewan (58%) and half in Alberta (48%) would prefer their provincial government to take, the most in the country. Two-in-five (39%) in Atlantic Canada and B.C. (40%) would also prefer their governments take a “tough” approach with the federal government. Notably, one-quarter in Quebec (23%) and one-in-six (15%) in Alberta prefer a relationship with less conflict.
In 2019, the Angus Reid Institute first asked this question only to those residing in western provinces. Notably, in the half decade since that question was asked, Albertans have softened their perspective towards Ottawa. Five years ago, 69 per cent in Alberta wanted their province to take a “tough” approach, just three per cent wanted a “soft” one. Since that question was asked, Alberta has seen a change in government from the NDP led by Premier Rachel Notley to successive UCP governments under Kenney and then Smith, which have taken a harder line in their approach to Ottawa-Edmonton relations.
Across the border in B.C., perspectives have moved in the other direction. In 2019, two-thirds (63%) wanted their province to take a “firmer” approach and three-in-ten (28%) a “tough” one.
Sentiment in Saskatchewan and Manitoba remain similar to 2019 on this matter.
Alberta, Saskatchewan most likely to say separation threat an effective tactic
The most “tough” approach a province could take arguably is to threaten separation. Overall, one-quarter (27%) of Canadians believe that the threat of secession is the only way to get provincial issues on the table. That belief is highest in Saskatchewan (48%) and Alberta (41%), who outpace those in Quebec (31%) on this front.
Both Alberta and Saskatchewan took legislative steps to carve out more space for themselves in federation in recent years. Smith’s UCP government passed the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act in 2022, a “legal framework to push back on federal laws or policies that negatively impact the province”. The Alberta government invoked it a year later to challenge the federal government’s plan to have a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. Saskatchewan passed similar legislation in 2023 under the Saskatchewan First Act, which it also invoked last year to challenge the net-zero electricity plan.
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from July 9-12, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 2,021 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For the full release including methodology, click here.
For the questionnaire, click here.
Image – Adam Scotti/PMO
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
