DNC Bump?: Harris extends lead over Trump with base built on youth vote

The Full Story

Part One: Top issues

• Cost of living dominates; the economy, border security, health care selected by one-quarter

• Reproductive rights a top-five issue for women of all ages

• Issues by ethnicity

Part Two: Leadership

• Harris has the edge on favorability over Trump

• By two-to-one ratio, Harris viewed more positively than Trump among non-white voters

• Three-in-five call Trump ‘arrogant’; descriptions of Harris more mixed

Part Three: Vote intent

• Young voters boost Harris ahead of Trump

• Majority of white voters support Trump

• Two-in-five say a potential Harris win makes them ‘hopeful’, but one-third also ‘worried’

Part Four: How will race and gender affect the election?

• Three-quarters say it’s harder for a woman to be elected

• However most say there’s ‘no difference’ between genders on doing a competent job

• Is being Black and South Asian an advantage or disadvantage?

Survey Methodology

Part One: Top issues

Cost of living dominates; the economy, border security, health care selected by one-quarter

As Americans head to the polls in November, there is one issue above all others that appears to be top of mind – the rising cost of living and the reverberations still being felt from a period of high inflation that hadn’t been seen in the country in 40 years. Although inflation has cooled significantly in 2023 and 2024, many are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store. The cost of borrowing for things like houses, cars and credit cards are also pressuring American budgets, as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to combat inflation. The first rate cut since this period of quantitative tightening may be on its way in September, as major companies are reporting a decline in consumer spending, leading some to worry of an economic slowdown.

Overall, the cost of living dwarfs others when Americans are asked to consider the top issues facing the country. The economy, more generally, is also chosen as a top issue by 28 per cent. Trailing those economic concerns are worries over border security (27%), health care (25%) and reproductive rights (23%):

Reproductive rights a top-five issue for women of all ages

Concerns are not uniform across the electorate, however. While the cost of living ranks as the top choice among all demographics, there are variations in which issues are ranked important underneath it.

Women are twice as likely as men to be concerned about reproductive rights in the wake of the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade and the removal of the right to abortion in many states since.

Americans older than 54 are much more likely to believe that border security is a top issue facing the country than those younger than that:

Issues by ethnicity

A majority of both white and non-white voters agree that the high cost of living is the top issue facing the country. But Black voters express more concern for income inequality, racism and gun violence than others. Hispanic voters are the most concerned about the cost of living, but also worry over a wide range of issues, with at least one-in-five selecting six others as top concerns:

Part Two: Leadership

Harris has the edge on favorability over Trump

Given the state of politics, it is perhaps unsurprising that the presidential campaign looks to be polarizing. Both candidates – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump – are viewed very negatively by a sizable minority of the electorate. Harris does garner more positive impressions (47%) than Trump (43%), a gap that has emerged after the candidates were tied in favorability a month ago.

Harris replacing President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket transformed the presidential race. With her she brought a lot of enthusiasm from young Americans, a majority of whom have favorable views of the current vice president. Trump is viewed more unfavorably across age and gender groups, but at least two-in-five of all demographics except women under 35 have positive impressions of him.

By two-to-one ratio, Harris viewed more positively than Trump among non-white voters

Harris also holds an advantage over Trump on this measure among Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters. However, she is viewed unfavorably by a majority of white voters, among whom Trump is viewed favorably by half (51%):

Three-in-five call Trump ‘arrogant’; descriptions of Harris more mixed

Harris holds an edge in favorability, but voters are mixed in their descriptions of the vice president. Out of a list provided to respondents, the top five words chosen to describe Harris are “dishonest”, “strong”, “corrupt”, “inspiring” and “strategic”. It is men older than 54 who are most critical of Harris, a majority of whom believe she is “dishonest” (52%), while at least two-in-five in that demographic say she is “corrupt” (44%) or “arrogant” (40%, see detailed tables).

Still, comparatively, voters overall are much more critical of Trump, who is most likely to be viewed as “arrogant”, a “bully”, “corrupt”, “dishonest”, and “strong”. The latter is the most chosen positive descriptor of Trump by men older than 54, the group who view the former president the most favorably. However, it’s worth noting that demographic also believe him to be “arrogant” at a majority level (59%), while also calling him a “bully” (46%) and “dishonest” (40%) at a high rate (see detailed tables).

“Strong” is also the top positive term chosen by Trump supporters (79%), who also view him as “strategic” (63%). Two-in-five who say they intend to vote for the former president call him “charismatic” (44%), “inspiring” (39%), and “honest” (38%). Although two-in-five of his supporters also describe the former president as arrogant (40%).

A majority of Harris supporters view their candidate as “strong”, “inspiring”, “charismatic”, and “compassionate”.

Meanwhile, both groups of supporters lob the negatives of “dishonest”, “arrogant”, and “corrupt” at the opposite candidate.

Part Three: Vote intent

Young voters boost Harris ahead of Trump

Harris has ridden the wave of enthusiasm that accompanied her entry into the presidential race to a lead over Trump. It has also grown since she first entered the race, as she now holds a five-point advantage among registered voters.

Note that this survey was conducted including the option for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. prior to the suspension of his campaign on Friday. This survey included a follow-up question which asked respondents which way they were leaning as well, which is factored into the vote intent data.

However, Harris’ lead is based on strong support of Americans 18- to 34-years-old, which presents a potential challenge for the Democratic campaign. Historically, that group has not turned out at the same rate as older Americans at the ballot box. There has been a surge in voter registration since Biden announced the end to his re-election campaign, after there had been a drop in youth voter registration since the 2020 election. But that needs to be followed through with a ballot cast in November.

Trump, meanwhile, has the support of older voters, who have consistently shown up at the ballot box over the years:

Majority of white voters support Trump

Trump also has the support of a majority of white voters. Meanwhile, by a two-to-one ratio, non-whites say they will support Harris come November, including two-thirds (67%) of Black voters and three-in-five (57%) Hispanic ones:

Two-in-five say a potential Harris win makes them ‘hopeful’, but one-third also ‘worried’

Shepard Fairey’s poster of Barack Obama with the word “Hope” at the bottom was perhaps the most iconic image of Obama’s successful 2008 campaign. Hope appears to be permeating this election cycle, as well, as it is the most commonly selected emotion that comes to voters as they consider the prospect of either Harris (37%) or Trump (30%) winning in November.

Of course, that hope is coming from the supporters of the candidates. Seven-in-ten (71%) Harris supporters say the thought of her victory makes them “hopeful”, while two-thirds (63%) of Trump supporters say the same of their own candidate’s potential November win (see detailed tables).

The prospect of their preferred campaign losing is met with fear (38% Trump supporters, 45% Harris supporters) and worry (57% Trump supporters, 47% Harris supporters). Harris supporters are more likely to say they would be angry (47%) if their candidate lost than Trump supporters (26%, see detailed tables)

Part Four: How will race and gender affect the election?

Harris has already made history in this campaign just by being nominated to the Democratic ticket. She is the first Black and first South Asian woman to be nominated for president by a major political party. She is also only the second woman after Hillary Clinton in 2016 and the second Black American after Obama in 2008.

Three-quarters say it’s harder for a woman to be elected

Voters believe that she will face a more challenging path to get to the White House. Three-quarters (74%) say it is easier for men to get elected to high political office, while few (4%) believe it is instead easier for women. One-in-five (22%) say neither gender faces an easier path, a more common opinion for men older than 34 than others:

However most say there’s ‘no difference’ between genders on doing a competent job

This stands in contrast to voters’ opinions on whether men or women are better at various aspects of being a high-ranking politician. At least half say there is no difference between men and women when it comes to listening to voters or seeking a compromise across the political divide. A majority also believe neither men nor women are better at making tough decisions, having a clear legislative vision or doing a competent job overall.

In fact, voters who believe men or women are better at a certain aspect are more likely to say it is women who are better, especially when it comes to seeking compromise and listening to voters.

In general, men are more likely than women to believe there is no difference between genders when it comes to the skills needed to hold political office. They are also more likely to believe women have an advantage than men except when it comes to making tough decisions. One-quarter of men (24%) believe women are generally worse than men at this, while one-in-six (16%) say the inverse is true (see detailed tables).

Is being Black and South Asian an advantage or disadvantage?

Being a historic candidate means forging through uncharted territory. Americans are more likely to see Harris’ Black and South Asian background as a potential advantage (35%) than a disadvantage (13%) as she runs this campaign. However, one-third (35%) say it will make no difference.

White and non-white voters agree that it’s more likely to be an advantage or make no difference than be a disadvantage when it comes to Harris’ campaign. However, white voters are slightly more likely to see potential challenges (15%) than non-white ones (10%):

Survey Methodology:

Angus Reid USA conducted an online survey from Aug. 19-23, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,758 American registered voters who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by Angus Reid USA.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For the full release including methodology, click here.

For the questionnaire, click here.

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