Separatist sentiment is weaker now than in 2019, but persists in AB, SK, and Quebec
April 6, 2025 – As if Election 45 could was looking for more drama, former opposition leader and Reform Party founder Preston Manning was rebuked by both Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal leader Mark Carney this week after Manning claimed that a vote for Carney and the Liberals represents a vote for Western secession and the breakup of Canada.
New data from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute finds that while Manning is not wrong that Western separatism sentiment may increase if the Liberals win federally, Carney has the data in his favour. Indeed, if the Liberals were to form the next government, approximately three-in-10 in Alberta (30%) and Saskatchewan (33%) say they would vote to leave federation, whether to form their own country or to join the United States. While this is significant, the vast majority still say they would vote no in each province.
Much of this is about perceived respect. In both Alberta (24%) and Saskatchewan (25%) only one-quarter of residents feel their province is respected by the rest of the country. This is half the level of the national average (52%) and well behind Ontario (66%). Even in Quebec, Canada’s traditionally most separatism desiring province, 46 per cent feel respected.
Notable, too, are the changes in recent months as Canadians have rallied around the flag in the face of threats of annexation from American President Donald Trump. Compared to last June, the proportion of those who believe their province “is treated fairly by the national government” has risen 19 points or more in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, while smaller but still positive changes have taken place in Alberta (+4), Saskatchewan (+6) and Atlantic Canada (+12).
INDEX
Part One: Respect and fairness
- Majority in Alberta, Saskatchewan believe province is not respected by rest of Canada
- Percentage of Canadians who believe province is treated fairly by feds rebounds
- Separatist tone was stronger in 2019
Part Two: A referendum in the West?
- Most would vote no to province leaving country or joining the U.S.
- But minority ‘yes’ vote grows if Liberals win election
Part Three: Weighing in on Danielle Smith’s American outreach
Part One: Respect and fairness
Majority in Alberta, Saskatchewan believe province is not respected by rest of Canada
So far, 2025 has been a year where Canadians have come together, after threats from American President Donald Trump to make Canada the 51st state, and tariffs on Canadian goods entering the U.S.
Amid this, however, long-simmering regional divisions continue to bubble, with both Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe offering a more regional take on relations with the U.S. These actions continue to speak to electorates who feel they have been spurned by the rest of the country. In fact, Alberta and Saskatchewan have continually been at or near the bottom of the list when asked if their province is respected.
Percentage of Canadians who believe province is treated fairly by feds rebounds
In both prairie provinces, legislation has been passed in recent years to increase autonomy and reject federal influence. Much of this is in response to feeling of alienation within the population. In 2019 just 17 per cent of Albertans said they felt treated fairly by Ottawa. The Fair Deal Panel was struck in 2019. Then, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said that Ottawa “must stop taking us for granted. They need to understand they’re killing the golden goose.” The panel studied ways to give Alberta more autonomy, including a provincial revenue agency, a separate provincial pension plan, a provincial police force and a formal provincial constitution.
While twice as many Albertans now say they feel fairly treated, this level of sentiment still lags well behind all other regions, aside from Saskatchewan. In 2022, Alberta passed the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, while in 2023 Saskatchewan passed the Saskatchewan First Act.
Separatist tone was stronger in 2019
In the wake of the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline, and a series of barriers put in front of the TransMountain expansion which threatened to upend the project – until the federal government stepped in – Albertans were frustrated with their province’s place in confederation and dissatisfied with the federal government.
In 2019, half (50%) of Albertans believed Alberta separatism “could” or “may very well” happen.
Related:
- Six-in-ten Canadians say lack of new pipeline capacity represents a crisis in this country
- Is separatism a real possibility?
ARI found six years ago that majorities of those in Alberta (60%) and Saskatchewan (53%) were open to the concept of a western Canadian separatist movement:
That same year, 58 per cent of Albertans believed that “the only way to be heard” in confederation “is to threaten separation,” compared to 42 per cent who disagreed and said that provinces don’t need to go that far. That sentiment had cooled significantly when ARI re-asked the question in July 2024, when only two-in-five believed separation was the only way for a province’s voice to be heard. However, Albertans, and those in Saskatchewan, were still above the national average in believing that to be the case:
Part Two: A referendum in the West?
While threatening separatism is evidently seen as a good bargaining chip, few Canadians appear to actually want to leave federation, whether it’s to join the United States or to have their province become its own nation.
Most would vote no to province leaving country or joining the U.S.
Asked how they would vote in a referendum about their province leaving Canada, 15 per cent say they would prefer their province be its own country, while 11 per cent say they would join the United States. Quebec leads the way in desire to become its own country, while Albertans and Saskatchewanians are most likely to want to join the United States:
Politically, supporters of the separatist Bloc Québécois stand out from other partisans on this issue. That said, Conservatives are approximately four-times as likely as other party supporters to want to form their own country, and stand nearly alone in their desire to join the United States:
But minority ‘yes’ vote grows if Liberals win election
According to Preston Manning, Moe and Smith national unity is on the ballot this federal election campaign. If the Liberals were to form the next government, support for leaving Canada to become a separate nation rises five points in Alberta and 13 points in Saskatchewan. These are, notably vastly outweighed by the majority who would vote no in a referendum regardless of who forms government:
Two-in-five current Conservative Party voters say they would be interested in seeing their own province leave confederation if the Liberals win the forthcoming election. The same number would also be open to joining the U.S. after such a result. This, compared to approximately four per cent of Liberal and NDP voters:
Part Three: Weighing in on Danielle Smith’s American outreach
Smith recently attended a conference in Florida headlined by American Conservative podcaster Ben Shapiro, who has advocated for Canada’s annexation. She has also recently appeared on Breitbart News, where she stated that she suggested to American officials that they put tariffs on pause until after the federal election in order to help the Conservative Party.
Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians about this, noting that some people say that her frequent trips to the U.S. to engage with Americans, including Shapiro, who want to annex Canada are a betrayal of her country. Other people say she is making these trips to defend her country and change Americans’ minds. The majority (53%) say these activities are a betrayal, while three-in-10 (28%) say that they are a way of keeping the dialogue open and defending Canada. Notably, in here own province views are divided equally on both sides:
Conservatives, as noted previously, are much more open to leaving the country to create their own or join the United States and are also more likely to see Smith’s trips as defending Canada’s interests. Few other partisans agree:
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 20 – 24, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,400 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
ARI conducted a second survey from March 28-31, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,131 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full report, click here.
For Questionnaire, click here
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
