SCOTUS: Biden reforms widely supported as majority say they lack confidence in America’s top court

The Full Story

INDEX

Part One: Confidence in the justice system

• Majority lack confidence in Supreme Court

• Trump supporters more confident than Harris supporters

• Half call the Supreme Court ‘biased’

• Majority of Harris backers believe politics a greater consideration than law for SCOTUS

Part Two: Supreme Court reforms

• Broad support for Biden’s proposed reforms

• Trump voters strongly support rules on conflict of interest, gifts

• The Constitution – a “living document” or “set in stone”?

Part Three: Supreme Court knowledge

• How well do Americans know who is on the Supreme Court?

• Thomas, Kavanaugh most correctly identified justices

Survey Methodology

Part One: Confidence in the justice system

Majority lack confidence in Supreme Court

The last few years have been controversial for the Supreme Court. In 2022, it overturned Roe v. Wade, a long-standing decision that had protected the right to an abortion and had been reaffirmed in multiple cases since the initial 1973 ruling. This changed the scope of reproductive rights across the United States, as many state governments followed the ruling by rolling back abortion laws. This year also saw the country’s highest court grant presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecutions for official acts committed in office and roll back a 40-year precedent which has weakened government regulatory agencies.

As the dust settles on these pivotal decisions, Americans are more likely than not to lack confidence in various elements of the justice system. On local law enforcement, Americans are split between expressing confidence (48%) and doubt (48%). Otherwise, a majority say they have “not a lot” or “a complete lack of confidence” in federal law enforcement (58%), criminal courts in their state (58%) and the Supreme Court (64%), the latter of which fares the worst by this metric:

A slim majority (52%) of white Americans say they have confidence in their local law enforcement. Otherwise, a majority of every ethnicity say they do not have confidence in all elements of the justice system. Whites are notably more distrustful of federal law enforcement (61% say “not a lot” or “a complete lack of confidence” in it) than non-whites (53%), while Black Americans are the most likely to lack confidence in local law enforcement (58%), criminal courts in their state (64%) and the Supreme Court (74%).

There is still a significant racial disparity in the U.S. prison system. Blacks are more likely to be incarcerated than whites and stay longer than average in jail.

Focusing specifically on the Supreme Court, a majority of all demographics say they lack confidence in the highest court in the country. Men older than 54 (43%) are the most likely to say they have “complete” or “a lot of confidence” in the Supreme Court, while women aged 18- to 34-years-old (17%) are the least likely. For women that age, the overturning of Roe v. Wade perhaps weighs heavily in that assessment of the Supreme Court. Two-in-five (42%) 18- to 34-year-old women say reproductive rights is one of the top issues facing the country. They are also the most likely to say they will place “a great deal of weight” on that issue when it comes to deciding their vote for president.

Related:

• Game Change: Invigorated young Democrats give Harris slight lead over Trump
• DNC Bump?: Harris extends lead over Trump with base built on youth vote

Trump supporters more confident than Harris supporters

Of the current nine Supreme Court justices, six were nominated by Republicans, including three by former president Donald Trump, who is once again the Republican nominee for president this election cycle. Perhaps it is then unsurprising that those who intend to vote for Trump are much more confident (55%) in the Supreme Court than those who intend to vote for the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris (14%). However, confidence among Trump supporters is not universal, with two-in-five (41%) expressing they have “not a lot” or “a complete lack of confidence” in the Supreme Court.

On other elements of the justice system, Trump supporters show high variance. They are distrustful of federal law enforcement (72% “not a lot” or “a complete lack of confidence” in it) but confident in local law enforcement (61% “complete” or “a lot of confidence”). Harris supporters are split over federal law enforcement, while more distrustful of local law enforcement and criminal courts in their own state (see detailed tables).

Half call the Supreme Court ‘biased’

When asked to assess the Supreme Court as either “impartial” or “biased”, Americans are more likely to say the latter (48%), which is perhaps what is sapping confidence in the country’s highest court. Only one-in-five (20%) likely Harris voters say they believe the Supreme Court is impartial, while three-times as many Trump voters (64%) say the same:

Majority of Harris backers believe politics a greater consideration than law for SCOTUS

Further, in the eyes of many, politics plays a more important role when the Supreme Court makes decisions than does law itself. Two-in-five (40%) believe this although they are slightly outnumbered by those who say law is the more important consideration (44%).

Current Harris supporters are more likely to believe politics are the more important factor than law (58%), while a majority (63%) of current Trump backers believe the Supreme Court’s primary consideration is law itself:

It is perhaps the politics of the judges themselves that has many Harris supporters believing that the Supreme Court is biased, as noted above. With a Republican-nominated majority sitting on the bench, three-quarters (73%) of likely Harris voters say the Supreme Court is right-leaning. Trump supporters are near evenly split between believing the court is left leaning (22%), right leaning (26%) and neither leaning to the right nor to the left (27%):

Part Two: Supreme Court reforms

Broad support for Biden’s proposed reforms

More than a week after he dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, President Joe Biden published an op-ed in the Washington Post detailing a series of proposed reforms to the Supreme Court in response to the ruling the court made in July granting presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts while in office. The reforms include a term-limit of 18 years and a code of conduct enforcing rules on gifts, conflicts of interest, and political activity. The Supreme Court had adopted its own code of conduct for the first time after controversies over gifted vacations to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samule Alito, however it was criticized for lacking an enforcement mechanism.

Overall, there is broad support for rules on political activity (80%), gift disclosure (86%) and conflicts of interest (87%). Two-thirds (66%) also support an 18-year term limit for Supreme Court justices.

However, Americans are split over the concept of expanding the bench. Democrats have tried and failed to advance legislation to add four more seats to the Supreme Court to politically rebalance the bench. Democrats argued that Republicans have appointed 15 of the last 19 justices despite losing the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Two-in-five Americans (43%) support adding more seats to the Supreme Court, but nearly as many (37%) do not with one-in-five (20%) uncertain:

Trump voters strongly support rules on conflict of interest, gifts

There is even agreement across political lines when it comes to a code of conduct on conflicts of interest, gift disclosure and political activity. However, Trump supporters are much less enthusiastic about an 18-year term limit, although a majority still support it. Three-in-five (62%) likely Trump voters oppose expanding the Supreme Court bench, which is supported by three-in-five (62%) Harris supporters:

The Constitution – a “living document” or “set in stone”?

One of the core views underpinning current decisions by the Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court is “originalism” or that the Constitution should be interpreted only as it was written at the time of its writing. The six Republican-appointed judges sitting on the Supreme Court are either former or current members of the Federalist Society, an organization that brought originalism to the legal mainstream. While fundamentally, the Constitution is a “living document”, it can be and has been amended, there are many who feel the initial Constitution should hold primacy and that it should be interpreted only as it would have been at the time.

Half (48%) of Americans believe the Constitution should be a “living document” and interpreted and changed based on the standards and realities of modern times. Fewer, but still two-in-five (39%) believe instead the Constitution should only be interpreted exactly as it was written by the founding fathers. Older Americans are more likely than younger ones to believe the Constitution should be “set in stone”:

Views on the Constitution and its interpretation fall along political lines. Three-quarters of likely Harris voters believe the Constitution is a “living document”, while two-thirds (66%) of those who intend to support Trump believe it should be “set in stone”:

Part Three: Supreme Court knowledge

How well do Americans know who is on the Supreme Court?

The Supreme Court has become a regular topic of conversation given its recent controversial and impactful rulings, and given the scandals embroiling some of its justices. When presented with a randomized list of six names, including the names of three current Supreme Court justices and three decoy names, a majority of Americans can correctly identify at least two justices. Older Americans are more likely to correctly recognize the names of justices than younger ones:

Thomas, Kavanaugh most correctly identified justices

Perhaps the two most recently controversial justices Thomas – entangled in the recent ethics scandal – and Brett Kavanaugh – who had sexual assault allegations levelled against him during his confirmation process and faced later calls for his impeachment when further misconduct allegations surfaced – are also the most readily recognized.

Elena Kagan, who was confirmed to the Supreme Court in 2010, is the least recognized name on the current bench:

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Aug. 19-23, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 2,002 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For the full release including methodology, click here.

For the questionnaire, click here.

Image – Fine Photographics/Unsplash