Three-quarters say ‘bring back parliament’ – but do they want to deal with Trump or to trigger an election?

Majority say it should be a ‘Canada First’ approach to Trump; Albertans most likely to disagree


January 30, 2025 – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prorogued parliament on Jan. 6 and sent the Liberal Party of Canada into a search for his successor, but that hasn’t meant any slowdown in cross-border challenges from the Trump administration in the interim. Is Canada equipped to respond?

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds many Canadians believing parliament should be recalled, but not to deal with Trump – they want to head right into an election.

Indeed, half of Canadians say parliament should resume sitting and an election should be triggered, as has been threatened by the Conservatives, New Democrats, and the Bloc Québécois. The other half aren’t so sure an election is needed and are divided between wanting to keep parliament prorogued until March or to bring it back but only if no election is called.

This divide in public opinion helps to portray the outlook of the country right now. The domestic political landscape is anything but unified, with fissures at the provincial and federal level in dealing with Trump.

After Alberta Premier Danielle Smith declined to add her name to a joint statement from provincial leaders in the face of threats from the U.S. President, many have singled her out for not being a “team player”.  Most Canadians (55%) say they would prefer their provincial leadership put the country first, but three-in-10 disagree, including half in Alberta (52%) and 41 per cent in Saskatchewan.

More Key Findings:

  • Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has recently called Canada “weaker than ever” in his statement asking that parliament be recalled. Half of Canadians (53%) agree with this statement, while two-in-five (41%) disagree
  • That said, Canadians are also five times as likely to say that public statements about Canada’s weakness are “harmful” (51%) to negotiations, rather than helpful (11%). A plurality of would-be CPC voters say it makes no difference (46%) while the vast majority of all other voters say it hurts Canada’s position.

 

INDEX

Part One: Team Canada?

  • Poilievre says ‘Canada has never been so weak’, do Canadians agree?
  • Half say it’s harmful to negotiations with Trump to publicly call Canada ‘weak’

Part Two: Bring back Parliament?

  • Three-quarters want MPs back in the House, but most for an election call

 

Part One: Team Canada?

Canada met the trade turmoil of the first Trump term with a Trudeau government-led “Team Canada” approach, which saw cooperation of not only provincial and federal leaders, but also cross-partisan collaboration to bolster Canada’s fight during the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

This time around, there’s a Vancouver Canucks-sized locker room rift as the effort from Team Canada has been far from unified. Premier Danielle Smith refused to add Alberta’s signature to a joint statement about Trump’s threatened tariffs from the first minister’s meeting earlier in January. She continues to resist the idea of putting tariffs, or even an embargo, on oil and gas exports as potential counterplay if and when the tariffs come. The economic consequences of any sort of tax or embargo on oil and gas for Alberta would be massive because it represents such a large portion of the province’s economy.

Overall, a majority of Canadians say their province should be thinking “country-first” as opposed to “province-first” as Canada decides how to respond to Trump’s tariff threats. But the picture changes depending on the province examined. In Alberta, a majority (52%) agree with the tact that Smith has taken so far, believing that Alberta should be looking out for its own interests. Next door in Saskatchewan, opinions are split.

The Prairie neighbours are the exception, however. Elsewhere, more believe their province should be thinking country-first than province-first. The country over province sentiment is highest in B.C. (62%) and Ontario (61%), where Premier Doug Ford has taken a lead role – and made a fashion statement with this “Canada is not for sale” hat – in efforts to coordinate provincial leaders against the tariff threat. That said, Ford has since called an election, which will arguably cost him and his province some attention over the next month:

Poilievre says ‘Canada has never been so weak’, do Canadians agree?

Federal cross-partisan collaboration seemed unlikely given the state of Parliament – suspended and poised to fall to a non-confidence vote when it returns. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been critical of the Trudeau Liberal government’s response to the early days of Trump’s term. “Liberals have shut Parliament in the middle of a crisis,” Poilievre wrote in a statement earlier this month. “Canada has never been so weak, and things have never been so out of control. Liberals are putting themselves and their leadership politics ahead of the country.”

More than half (53%) of Canadians agree with Poilievre that “Canada has never been so weak”. Two-in-five (41%) disagree:

That particular statement draws varying levels of agreement across the country. Nearing two-thirds in Alberta (63%) and Saskatchewan (63%) agree with Poilievre on Canada’s vulnerability. Those in Atlantic Canada (51%) are the most likely to disagree:

Half say it’s harmful to negotiations with Trump to publicly call Canada ‘weak’

While there is more agreement than not that Canada is entering a potential trade war with the United States from a position of weakness, whether it’s helpful or harmful for a Canadian political leader to say such a thing is another matter. Half (51%) believe making such a statement publicly is damaging to Canada’s negotiations with the United States, far outnumbering the proportion who believe it is “helpful” (11%).

Political perspectives differ on Poilievre’s statement. A plurality of likely CPC voters believe Poilievre calling Canada weak has “no impact” (46%), while those who believe the statement has an impact lean towards thinking it’s a positive one (24%) rather than a negative one (17%). Liberal voters, whether they are supporting the party in the hypothetical situations where former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney or former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland win the ongoing leadership race, overwhelmingly believe Poilievre’s words are harmful to Canada’s negotiating position. Although, Freeland Liberals are slightly less convinced that’s the case.

Related: Leadership race renews interest in Liberals – particularly under Carney – but CPC still leads comfortably

Part Two: Bring back Parliament?

Three-quarters want MPs back in the House, but most for an election call

The hounds of trade war are baying as Canada’s Parliament remains prorogued after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign pending a Liberal party leadership race to replace him. The business of government continues as usual despite the House of Commons not sitting, which is not a guarantee were the House to return. The NDP, CPC and Bloc Québécois have indicated they would vote down the government on any confidence matters which would trigger an election perhaps dividing the focus of cabinet ministers between dealing with Trump’s tariffs and campaigning.

Canadians by a three-to-one margin prefer Parliament comes back to stay suspended until after the Liberal leadership race concludes (77% to 23%), but those who want the House of Commons to resume are not unified in their reasons as to why. Half (47%) of Canadians want Parliament to come back to immediately dissolve, while three-in-ten (30%) say it should come back only if opposition parties withdraw their threats of bringing down the government so Parliament can deal with the threat of Trump:

Those in Alberta (61%) and Saskatchewan (60%) are the most likely to say Parliament should be called back to the opposition parties can trigger an election. Those in Quebec (36%) are more likely than elsewhere to believe the House should be called back but only if opposition parties delay their attempts to bring down the government:

Likely CPC voters are near universal on the matter: approaching nine-in-10 want Parliament to come back so an election is triggered. Liberal voters, whether they support the party in the hypothetical scenarios where Carney or Freeland wins the leadership race, believe Parliament should come back at a majority level, with more than half in each group saying it should only come back if opposition parties do not bring down the government:

METHODOLOGY:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Jan. 24-27, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,012 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For detailed results by federal vote intention, click here.

For full release including methodology, click here. 

For questionnaire, click here.

MEDIA CONTACT:

Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl

Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org

Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org

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