Liberals hold two-point vote intention advantage, 40 per cent to 38 per cent over opposition CPC
November 17, 2025 – Despite boos for the Prime Minister at the Grey Cup on Sunday, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Carney approved of by 52 per cent of Canadians. He’s disapproved of by 39 per cent, putting his net approval rating at plus 13.
On the other side of the house, the spotlight on Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre continues to intensify.
Having lost one Conservative MP to a floor-crossing and one to a resignation, Poilievre looks to the new year and a leadership review in January, having earned the favourability this fall of just one-third of Canadians (34%). The CPC leader has an unfavourable rate of 60 per cent, putting his net score at a negative 26, the worst recorded since he took over the leadership.
That said, speculation of his imminent ouster may well be overstated. Views of Poilievre remain strong among his own party base, with 78 per cent favourability.
That said, Carney receives an 87 per cent approval among 2025 Liberal voters. The would-be incumbents in any forthcoming election have retaken the slightest of leads in a hypothetical contest. Close to equal numbers would vote for the LPC (40%) and CPC (38%) if an election were held.
For their part, the vast majority of Canadians say it’s too early for an election (69%). This includes a significant minority of CPC voters (37%) who would opt to give the government more time before heading to the polls again.
INDEX
Part One: Leader performance
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Poilievre solid among base ahead of review
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Comparing Carney and Poilievre
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2025 voters
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Age and gender
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Region
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Part Two: Vote intention
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Region
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Age and gender
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Few say now’s the time for an election
Part One: Leader performance
The federal Liberal government has announced major investments in infrastructure, promised to fast-track major energy projects, and set its sights on government modernization which will significant cut operational spending. With a significant deficit forecast, the pressure will be on to deliver, but at least for now, Carney remains in the good graces of half of Canadians. A slight majority (52%) say they approve of the performance of Carney so far in the PM’s office while two-in-five (39%) disapprove:
Poilievre solid among base ahead of review
The opposition leader faces mandatory review in January. It will come after weeks of discussion and speculation following caucus upheaval in the Conservative camp and renewed questions about the leadership style of Pierre Poilievre, but not from his perspective. Poilievre offered an unequivocal “no” when he was asked by a reporter if he was “reflecting on his leadership style”.
Poilievre perhaps takes this tack knowing that he remains a popular figure among Conservative voters. Four-in-five (78%) in that group say they have a favourable view of their leader. This suggests that in the short-term Poilievre is likely to survive his upcoming review. But there remains the broader issue: the CPC leader, and prime minister hopeful, remains deeply unpopular among other groups of voters.
Three-quarters (77%) of those who voted Liberal in April say they have a “very unfavourable” view of Poilievre; they are joined by four-in-five (81%) past NDP and three-in-five (62%) past BQ voters in strong negative assessments of Poilievre.
Throughout his tenure, Poilievre has struggled to gain a foothold in popularity among Canadians. Currently, solidly three-in-five (60%) say they have an unfavourable view of the Leader of the Official Opposition. One-third (34%) say they view him positively:
Poilievre’s challenge continues to be generating positive views among women. He’s always been viewed more favourably by men, especially those older than 34. Women of all ages are much more likely to have negative views:
Comparing Carney and Poilievre
2025 voters
Comparatively, Carney enjoys not only high favourability among those who voted Liberal in the spring election (87%) but also high levels of positivity from recent NDP (61%) and Bloc (52%) voters. He also fares better among the main opposition camp of Conservatives (18%) than Poilievre does among his rival Liberals (5%):
Age and gender
Carney holds an advantage over Poilievre in positive views among most demographics, with the except of men aged 35 to 54. Among that group, Poilievre has a very slight edge (45% favourability to Carney’s 42% approval). Women older than 54 are the most likely to offer praise for Carney’s early tenure (64% approval):
Region
Carney is least popular in Saskatchewan, where 36 per cent, and evidently few Roughriders fans, say they approve of his performance. It is there and Alberta (46% favourability for Poilievre, 41% approval for Carney) where Poilievre has an advantage in positive appraisal between the two leaders. Elsewhere, Carney’s lead ranges from +32 in Atlantic Canada to +6 in Manitoba:
Part Two: Vote intention
Despite a significant advantage in views of its leader, the Liberal party is statistically tied with the Conservatives in vote intention. The picture is similar to data released in September by the Angus Reid Institute, although the two parties have swapped which one is in the statistically insignificant pole position.
The NDP (9%) and Bloc Québécois garner (8%) support from fewer than one-in-ten Canadians:
Region
The Conservatives perform best in the party’s traditional Prairie strongholds of Alberta (59% vote intention) and Saskatchewan (64%). It also is in the lead in support in Manitoba (48% to Liberals’ 38%).
Two electorally key provinces – B.C. and Quebec – both have statistical ties in support. Out west, the Conservatives (40%) and Liberals (38%) are neck and neck in vote intention. In Quebec, the Liberals (36%) find themselves level with the Bloc (36%).
The Liberals also hold a key lead in Ontario of seven points (46% over the CPC 39%):
Age and gender
The Conservative base is among men older than 34, but the party is still fighting for support from the Liberals among men older than 54. Women are less likely to vote Conservative than men across all ages, and those older than 54 are the most likely to support the Liberals (49%):
Few say an election soon would be a good idea
Canadians would avoid a potential Christmas election with the passing of the Liberals’ budget. If it is held, it will be an election they don’t want. Seven-in-ten (69%) say it is too soon for an election, while 31 per cent – the bulk of whom supported the CPC in the past election – believe it’s a good time:
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 5-7 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,038 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.