Majorities of NDP, Liberal and BQ supporters less enthralled with the prospect of a campaign
October 23, 2024 – With Ottawa’s parliamentary precinct plunged into the latest round of minority government brinksmanship, political watchers can scarce draw breath without simultaneously speculating about whether the nation will next go to the polls before 2024 is over.
But the appetite for ballot casting is not evenly spread across the political spectrum.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that while nearly all Conservative supporters believe now is the time for an election, there is less consensus among the supporters of the powerbroker NDP and Bloc Quebecois. Majorities of NDP and Bloc supporters believe an election can wait, joining the more than three-quarters (79%) of likely Liberal voters who agree.
Overall, a majority (52%) of Canadians believe an election should be called, including at least half in every province, and a plurality of all demographics.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
Who wants an election?
Since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals were re-elected to a minority government in September 2021, Canadians have not been this close to a potential election. For two-and-a-half years, the Liberals were insulated from the typical volatility of a minority government thanks to a supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh “ripping” up the agreement in September exposed the Liberals to the whims of the three other major parties in the House of Commons, who if all three voted together against the Liberals on a confidence motion, could force an election.
That still means that if either the NDP or the Bloc Québécois support the Liberals, the minority government would survive. However, the Liberals have rejected some of the Bloc’s key policy demands, including a boost to old age security benefits. While eventually the NDP, Bloc and Conservatives came together to pass the bill, the Liberals appear unwilling to fully allow other parties to dictate the government’s policy agenda, despite the party’s weakened position.
The Conservatives have tabled two non-confidence motions against the Liberal government since the supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP ended. It is no surprise the party is the most willing to begin an election campaign, given its commanding position in the polls.
Related: Metro Slide: Dissatisfaction with federal Liberals drives double-digit drop in urban support
CPC supporters are also eager to see an election called before next year’s deadline. More than nine-in-ten (91%) say now is the time for a federal election. Current Liberal supporters (78%) are most likely to disagree, while majorities of likely NDP (54%) and Bloc (57%) voters also don’t believe it’s time for a federal election.
Still, adding up the overwhelming majority of Conservative supporters with the minorities of other party supporters amounts to a majority of Canadians (52%) who believe it is time for an election:
While the Bloc attempt to force policy concessions from the Liberals to keep the government in office until its full term, there are many in the Bloc Québécois’ home province who are not eager for an election to be called. Approaching half (47%) disagree that “it’s time for a federal election to be called”, outnumbering the two-in-five (41%) who say it’s time for the country to head back to the polls.
Quebec is the only province where that is the case, as elsewhere in the country those who want an election to be called outnumber those who do not:
At least a plurality of all demographics believe it is time for an election, but opinions are most divided among men and women under 35, and women older than 54. Majorities of men older than 34 and women aged 35 to 54 believe it is time for an election:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Sept. 12-18, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 3,985 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For the full release including methodology, click here.
Image – ID 161730892 | © Colin Temple | Dreamstime.com
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org