Half say the country is on the wrong track, disagree that Canada has a good system of government
February 9, 2024 – The looming American election has become a source of anxiety on both sides of the border, but Canadians’ concerns about the state of domestic democracy are growing, too.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians, and especially past Conservative voters, worried that key democratic pillars are weakening in Canada. Canadians are more likely to believe elections are becoming less free and fair, the rule of law is being applied less equitably and the power is less invested in the common people than to see those principles strengthening. On all three, those who voted for the Conservative party in 2021 are much more critical than other past voters, whose concerns are evident but perhaps less grave.
And while Canadians have their criticisms of their country, some solace may be found in cross-border perspectives.
Two-thirds of Canadians (67%) say they are proud to live in Canada, compared to 54 per cent who say this in the U.S. Meantime, twice as many residents north of the border say they believe it to be a caring society (59%) as south (30%).
Domestically, the federal government, and its current path, appears to be the most polarizing element of the country at the moment. Half (48%) say Canada does not have a good system of government and as many (47%) believe the country is on the wrong track.
In this perceived dearth of quality government, an issue that extends to the provinces, concerns over the potential for “Trump-style politics” are palpable. Just 13 per cent of Canadians say that this approach – driven by bombastic populist messaging, disregard for institutions and legal norms, and attacks on “the deep state” – is something to which Canada is immune. Three-quarters (75%) say that the Trump trend – which has inspired imitators around the globe – is something that can happen in Canada.
More Key Findings:
- Two-in-five (38%) in Alberta and three-in-ten (29%) in Saskatchewan say Canada is a country whose values align with their own, the two lowest proportions in the country. More than half (53%) in Quebec say the same, leading all provinces.
- Canadians are less likely to view Canada as a prosperous country (62% to 54%) and a positive player in world affairs (50% to 44%) than they were in 2022.
- Amid the ninth year of Liberal government, past CPC voters are much less likely to say they are proud to live in Canada (49%) than past Liberal (89%) or NDP (70%) voters. Just one-in-eight (13%) 2021 Conservatives see the country as on the right track.
- Two-thirds (65%) of 2021 Liberal voters believe the country is heading in the right direction, the only group of past voters who say so at a majority level.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
Other reports in the Angus Reid Institute’s State of the Nations series
- Canadians fear for the impacts of another Trump term as U.S. Election 2024 looms
- Just one-in-three Americans say they’ll accept the results of the 2024 election regardless of outcome
- Is there room for political compromise in Canada? Even on this, Canadians are evenly split
INDEX
Part One: Assessments of democracy
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Canadians not sure the rule of law applies to everyone
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Canadians critical but not quite ‘American’ in level of despair
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Most agree that “Trump-style politics” can happen in Canada
Part Two: Pride, prosperity, and being a positive player?
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Drop in number saying Canada is “prosperous”, “positive player in world affairs”
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Conservatives feel alienated while others view Canada in favourable light
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Canadians still far more positive than Americans on key assessments
Part One: Assessments of democracy
Canadians not sure the rule of law applies to everyone
The approaching U.S. election has many in the country looking south and worrying about the strength of democracy in America. Canadians’ critical gaze is not limited to its southern neighbour.
Canadians who see elections becoming less free and fair in Canada outnumber those who disagree, while at least half believe the equal application of the rule of law is weakening and the common person’s power is deteriorating.
However, these assessments of democracy vary greatly depending on respondents’ past political affiliation. Past Conservative voters express serious doubt and 2021 NDP voters offer mixed reviews while those who voted Liberal are more positive on all fronts:
If there is a demographic highlight for Canadians’ faith in democracy it is perhaps this: young people are most likely to say that one’s ability to participate in civic life is growing stronger. Among both men and women, those 34 and younger are most likely to say this. This suggests that though there may be a perceived problem, the ability to fix it appears to lay at least partially in the population’s collective hands:
Canadians critical but not quite ‘American’ in level of despair
Clearly, then, even with some cause for hope or enthusiasm, Canadians do not offer a ringing endorsement of their current democratic system, overall. As the saying goes, it could be worse.
Americans are vastly more critical of their own democracy and institutions compared to their northern neighbours. This is particularly the case when considering the protection of human rights domestically, and the electoral process:
Most agree that “Trump-style politics” can happen in Canada
The 2022 Freedom Convoy not only challenged Canada’s democracy, but provided evidence that Canada could be influenced by populist forces gathering in the United States spurred on by former U.S. President Donald Trump. With it becoming increasingly likely Trump is the Republican presidential nominee for the 2024 election, there are more doubts and concerns surfacing in Canada as to what the knock-on effects might be.
Most believe Canada is not insulated from Trump’s brand of populism. This opinion is held widely across political divides, though it’s worth noting that the connotation of “Trump-style politics” may be more positive than negative for some respondents. Two-in-five (42%) CPC voters believe America will be better overall if Trump wins again in the fall.
Part Two: Pride, prosperity, and being a positive player?
Extending some of these domestic democratic perceptions to more macro views, Canadians offer positive assessments of their country on many fronts. Canadians who say they are proud to live in Canada outnumber those who say they aren’t by a three-to-one margin. There are also more who believe Canada is prosperous and caring than those who don’t.
More troublingly, just half (49%) say Canada’s values as a country align with their own (investigated further below). While this outweighs the proportion who disagree (36%), this means that fully half do not consider that an accurate reflection of their relationship with the country.
There is more disagreement as to whether Canada’s net effect internationally is a positive one, whether Canada’s system of government is good and whether Canada is on the right track overall:
Drop in number saying Canada is “prosperous”, “positive player in world affairs”
Across the board, assessments of Canada by Canadians have become slightly less positive in the past two years. However, the largest drops are shown on the matters of whether Canada is prosperous and a positive player in world affairs. On the former front, two years of high inflation likely has influenced Canadians’ views on the country’s prosperity.
On the latter, Canadians have become more critical of Canada’s standing in the world in recent years – half (49%) said in 2022 that Canada’s reputation in the world is worse now than it was 10 years ago – and more doubtful of Canada’s approach when it comes to trade competitiveness, diplomatic influence, and military investment.
Related:
- Half say Canada’s reputation has worsened in last decade
- International Priorities: Defence rises in prominence as majority believes Canada’s military is lagging behind
Conservatives feel alienated while others view Canada in favourable light
The strongest criticism of Canada as it stands come from past Conservative voters, who are also more likely to believe political compromise is impossible in the country and show disenchantment with the current federal government.
Past Liberal voters offer the country glowing reviews at a majority level on all fronts. Past NDP voters see more warts, but still are more positive in their assessments than past CPC voters:
There has been an evolution in Canada’s federation in recent years. Historically, Quebec was home to much dissatisfaction with the country and its place within it. But the sovereignty push east of Ottawa has quelled significantly in recent years, and instead ignited in the prairies, where governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan have increasingly pushed back against the federal government and its policies.
This shift is evident in how Canadians in these different provinces assess Canada. Those in Alberta and Saskatchewan are the least likely to say they are proud to live in Canada; those in Quebec say they are proud at the highest levels.
Fewer than two-in-five (38%) in Alberta, and three-in-ten (29%) in Saskatchewan, say Canada’s values align with their own; more than half (53%) in Quebec believe that’s the case.
Approaching half (46%) in Quebec believe the country is on the right track, double the number in Alberta (24%) or Saskatchewan (21%) who say the same:
Canadians still far more positive than Americans on key assessments
Americans are much more critical of their own country than Canadians are of theirs as the U.S. approaches the precipice of a Trump-Biden rematch. Canadians are twice as likely to say their country is caring and to believe their home country’s values align with their own. Though not offering a ringing endorsement, Canadians also profess more faith in their system of government:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Jan. 9-11, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,510 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
ARI conducted a second online survey from Jan. 9-12, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,178 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Both surveys were self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results in Canada by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For detailed results in the U.S. by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For a PDF of the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
To read the questionnaire, click here.
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MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org @davekorzinski
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org @thejonroe
