October 20, 2015 – After a brief dip in the polls last month, Donald Trump’s support has stabilized and jumped three points in a new CNN/ORC poll fielded October 14 – 17. Trump is chosen as the person Republicans and Republican-leaning Indepents would “most likely” choose as their primary candidate by 27 per cent of respondents, up from 24 per cent in mid-September. He is joined at the top of Republican voter preferences by Dr. Ben Carson, who has hit a personal high of 22 per cent, up eight points from one month ago.
The most dramatic result of this new poll is the fall of Carly Fiorina. Chosen by many as the winner of the second Republican debate, Fiorina’s rise to second in the mid-September poll (15%) was fleeting. She now finds herself at 4 per cent in ninth place.
As for the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton’s strong performance in the first Democratic debate has solidified her as the first choice for most of her party’s supporters. The former Secretary of Defense is chosen as the most likely top choice by 45 per cent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents after the debate, up three points from last month. Bernie Sanders also got a bump in support after his debate performance, up five points from 24 per cent to 29 per cent.
No other Democratic debate participant registered more than one per cent in the poll, but Joe Biden, who has been discussed as a potential candidate, received 18 per cent support despite not yet declaring his interest in running.
Methodology: Live phone (landline and cell) interviews with 1,028 adult Americans. 956 of these respondents are registered voters. Total sample margin of error is +/- 3% but rises when looking at specific party questions – 425 registered Democrats +/- 5%, and 465 registered Republicans +/- 4.5%