Half of Muslims and Jews say their opinion of Trudeau has worsened in recent weeks
May 16, 2024 – Canada’s shifting demographics has meant a commensurate shift in the ways political parties look for voters. Modern politicians have sought to appeal to support bases across diverse linguistic, cultural, and religious diasporas. In 2015, the Liberals’ appeal to Muslim voters helped power Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to a majority government. But recent tensions brought on by the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and the resulting humanitarian crisis, have changed the political landscape.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberals’ balancing act in addressing the Israel-Gaza conflict costing it support among two key constituencies. Trudeau’s party trails the NDP (41% to 31%) in vote intent among Canadian Muslims and the CPC (42% to 33%) among Canadian Jews.
However, those are not the only religious groups where the Liberals find themselves with a support deficit. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party are the preferred choice of a majority (53%) of Christians, Hindus (53%) and Sikhs (54%).
This comes as Canadians of all religious stripes – or none at all – report deteriorating opinions of the prime minister. As the federal government attempts to navigate its response to the ongoing war in Gaza, it has earned plenty of criticism from Canadian Muslims and Jews. Among both groups, at least half say their opinion of Trudeau has worsened in recent weeks.
However, the opposition leaders have yet to capitalize on souring approval of Trudeau among these two key groups. Canadian Muslims are about as likely to say their opinion of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh have improved (22%) as worsened (20%); half (47%) say their views of Poilievre have become more negative in recent weeks. Assessments of both leaders by Canadian Jews trend negative (Singh -36 net improved; Poilievre -6).
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Introduction
Vote intention by religion
Leadership approval/favourability
Momentum: Trudeau lags, do Singh and Poilievre benefit?
Introduction
The vote intention story for the governing Liberal party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is one with few, if any, bright spots in recent months. Overall, they trail the opposition Conservative party by 20 points. They are the preferred party of no age or gender demographic and are in at most second place in any province in the country. This, after a budget they had hoped would flip the momentum for them as they run out of time in power before an election must be called.
The Liberals’ dismal vote intention numbers have coincided with a period of much international instability which has caused domestic disruption on the political scene. In the wake of Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October, the federal government and Trudeau have navigated its response to the war along a fine line. This has resulted in significant criticism from both Canadian Muslims and Jews, majorities of whom believe the Canadian government has done a poor job standing up for international laws and representing Canada internationally.
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At times in Canadian political history, both Muslims and Jews have been sources of support for the Liberal party. While Canadian Jews shifted to being more likely overall to vote for the Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his more pro-Israel policies, Liberals have traditionally performed strongly in federal ridings with significant Jewish populations. Notably, the federal electoral district with the largest Jewish population – Mount Royal, currently served by Liberal MP Anthony Housefather – has voted Liberal in every federal election since the riding’s creation in 1940.
Muslim support was courted by the Liberals to help power the party to Trudeau’s majority government in 2015. Trudeau positioned himself and the Liberals as the antithesis to Harper and the Conservatives’ “barbaric cultural practices” hotline and the controversial C-51 anti-terror legislation, both Conservative government policies which were unpopular among Canadian Muslims.
Perhaps due to these political dynamics, Trudeau and his successive Liberal governments have taken strides to address the priorities of both Muslims and Jews. Liberal governments under Trudeau prioritized recognizing and combatting Islamophobia, including with a controversial bill in 2017, and the establishment of special representative on combatting Islamophobia in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Liberals supported a Conservative motion condemning the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign against Israel in 2016 and Trudeau has continuously voiced support for Israel, including when a previous Israel-Gaza conflict included the shooting of a Canadian doctor by an Israeli sniper in 2018. However, conflict between Israel and Palestinians even prior to Oct. 7 has been the source of tension for Trudeau. Canadian Jews criticized the government after the Liberals restored funding in 2016 to the Palestinian aid organization UNRWA previously cut by the Conservatives under Harper.
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Approaching two-thirds of Canadians identify as religious. While more than half of Canadians overall identify as Christian, there are growing proportions of Canadians who identify as Muslim, Hindu and Sikh – double the number who did so 25 years ago.
To analyze how shifting population and global dynamics have affected Canadian politics, ARI conducted a survey among an augmented sample of Muslim, Hindu, Jewish and Sikh Canadian adults, who represent four of the largest religious groups after Christianity among the Canadian population.
For some of these groups, there is a similar picture of vote intent as among the general population: a strong Conservative lead. The opposition Conservatives lead in vote intention among decided and leaning Canadian Christian, Hindu, Jewish and Sikh voters, and those with no religious identity. Canadian Muslims are the only group to choose the NDP at a plurality level. As criticism over the governing party’s response to the crisis in Gaza swirls, the governing Liberals are at best the second choice among all religious groups analyzed:
Leadership approval/favourability
Leadership likely has an outsized effect on political party support. In this case, most religious groups have a more positive view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre than either Trudeau or NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. There are two exceptions: Muslims and Atheists, who have a net positive view of Singh and high negative views of Poilievre:
Momentum: Trudeau lags, do Singh and Poilievre benefit?
Canadians are more likely than not to say their opinions of the leaders of the three largest political parties in the country has worsened in recent weeks. However, Poilievre has positive momentum among Evangelical Christians, and Hindus, and slight positive momentum among Mainline Protestants. Opinions of Trudeau are more likely to have worsened across the board, while Singh is treading slightly above water among Muslims only.
A majority (51%) of Muslims say their opinion of Trudeau has worsened recently. In December, a group of Muslim donors who had donated hundreds of thousands of dollars annually to the Liberal party since 2014, said it was withdrawing support from the party after Trudeau had not called for a ceasefire in December. Then, the National Council of Muslims cancelled a meeting with the prime minister in January after the government had “failed to move on substantive hate-crime legislation” and failed to support and protect Palestinians in Gaza.
Meanwhile, since the onset of the war in Gaza, antisemitic incidents in Canada have risen, and Trudeau has faced criticism for not properly addressing the increased violence and hate directed towards Jews in Canada. His government has also faced accusations that it has backed off from its prior support of Israel. Half (49%) of Canadian Jews say their opinion of the prime minister has worsened in recent weeks.
The opposition leaders have not seen a significant positive lift in views from either Canadian Muslims or Jews as opinions of Trudeau have worsened. In fact, Poilievre has also drawn the ire of Muslims after he was reluctant to call for a ceasefire and opposed Canada funding UNRWA. Half (47%) of Muslims say their view of the Conservative leader has worsened in recent weeks.
Singh is narrowly a net positive among Muslims while half (47%) say their opinion of the NDP leader has stayed the same. Since the onset of the war, the NDP under Singh have been more supportive of the Palestinian side of the conflict including in March, when the NDP called on Canada to recognize the “State of Palestine” in a controversial motion brought to the House of Commons. The Liberals significantly changed the wording before the non-binding motion was eventually passed with softer language asking the government to work towards a two-state solution instead of officially recognizing a Palestinian state.
NDP support of the Palestinian side of the conflict is perhaps a factor as to why more Canadian Jews say their opinion of Singh has worsened (38%) than improved (2%) recently. Elsewhere, opinions of Poilievre have moved little among Canadian Jews. The Conservative leader said that he is “a friend of the state of Israel” and has accused Trudeau of playing both sides of the conflict in a recent speech at a Montreal synagogue in March. One-quarter (25%) of Jews say their opinion has improved, but more (31%) say it has worsened:
METHODOLOGY: The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 19-23, 2024 among a representative general population sample of 3,459 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. In addition to the standard general population sample, ARI also surveyed from April 19 to May 9, 2024 additional samples of Canadian Muslim, Hindu Jewish and Sikh adults. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release. For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here. To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here. CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org |
