October 22, 2015 – Leading up to Sunday’s runoff election for the Guatemalan presidency, former television comedian Jimmy Morales looks to be firmly in control. Morales won the first round of the election with 23.9 per cent of the vote, but did not reach the 50 per cent mark necessary to declare a winner. He will now face former first lady Sandra Torres, who finished second with 19.7 per cent, in a head to head runoff. If recent polls are to be believed, Morales looks poised to win the second round in a landslide. A ProDatos poll fielded October 14 – 19 suggests that Morales leads Torres by more than 30 points (58.5% – 27.6%, with 13.9% unsure).
Sandra Torres’ former husband Alvaro Colom was president from 2008-2011. She divorced Colom two months before the 2011 election in an attempt to avoid a constitutional ban on relatives of the president running for the office. The Supreme Court however, ruled the divorce was done for explicitly political reasons and barred her from running. She had no such troubles this time around.
The Guatemalan election has seen a record high turnout of 71.3 per cent. This from a country that has long desired a reprieve from political corruption, most recently exemplified by president Otto Perez Molina, who resigned and was subsequently arrested for his alleged involvement in a multi-million dollar bribery scandal. The arrest was preceded by months of street protests, high profile arrests and calls for new leadership.
Morales’ biggest strength seems to be his portrayal as a political outsider. One needs only to look at his campaign slogan “Ni corrupto, ni ladrón” (not corrupt, not a thief) to see his attempt to capitalize on this image.
Methodology: Interviews with an unreported number of Guatemalan adults. Reported margin of error +/- 2.8%.