Judging the Budget: Just over half say it’s “more good than bad”; near-even split over size of deficit spend

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Liberals hold slight vote intent advantage amid lack of enthusiasm and declining approval for Trudeau

April 28, 2021 – This week’s vote in the House of Commons passing the new federal budget means Canadians will not be going to the polls this spring, a prospect they’ve clearly indicated they were in no mood for.

Their feelings regarding the Trudeau government’s fiscal plan are more nuanced, however, with the divisive document drawing praise from Canadians on the centre-left, and ire from Conservatives, along with centrists concerned about deficit spending.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute indicates that while just over half of the country deem the first budget in two years to be “more good than bad” (49%) or “excellent” (4%), the rest deem it to be “more bad than good” (28%) or “terrible” (18%).

Among the items Canadians aware of the budget like best are new taxes on foreign homebuyers (54%) and on purchases of luxury items such as planes and boats (49%). The Trudeau government’s showcase $10 a day child care program, meanwhile, is a favourite of two-in-five (41%).

On the other hand, the landmark amount of spending in the 2021 budget, and the associated debt it accumulates, drives concern. Indeed, asked what they don’t like about this year’s budget, this is the top answer, chosen by half of Canadians (49%). Further, Canadians are near evenly divided over whether the extraordinary times driven by the COVID-19 pandemic justify the amount projected to be spent, with half saying yes (51%) and the other half disagreeing. Significant gender divides drive opinion on both sides of this argument, as does politics.

Vote intention itself, however, has not budged. The Liberals have not gained a post-budget bump in momentum or support, nor have the CPC, leaving parties standing largely where they have been for the last month. The incumbent party maintains a slight but insignificant lead (34%) over the Conservatives (32%) as perceptions of ho-hum leadership at the helm of both parties leave voters uninspired.

More Key Findings:

Half of women under 55 years of age say that $10 a day child care is an aspect of the budget that they like. It is the most popular element of the budget for young women (ages 18 to 34)

Erin O’Toole’s favourability drops five more points this month. Just 24 per cent of Canadians view him favourably compared to 59 per cent who view him unfavourably

Just seven per cent of Canadians would be ‘thrilled’ with a Liberal majority in the next federal election, while 31 per cent would be ‘content’ with that result. One-quarter say they would be ‘unhappy’ (25%) or ‘distraught’ (27%)

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX:

Part One: Judging the Budget

Canadians’ priorities centre on COVID-19 response, healthcare, environment
How many paid attention?
More good than bad?
What Canadians liked
What Canadians disliked
Half say spending too high

Part Two: Leadership

Trudeau approval down four points from March
Positive views of O’Toole drop again too

Part Three: Vote intention

Little change in vote intention post-budget
Regional results
Age and gender
Just two-in-five would be okay with a Liberal majority

Part 1 – Judging the Budget

Canadians’ priorities centre on COVID-19 response, healthcare, environment

On April 19, the Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented the Liberal government’s first budget in two years. Within the more than 700-page document were additional measures for COVID-19 relief, alongside taxation and spending priorities to lead Canada out of the pandemic.

The budget comes at a unique time in Canadian history. The top issue in the country continues to be the response to a once in several generations crisis – the COVID-19 pandemic. A coincident priority – health care – draws the second highest level of urgency, while climate change continues to be a massive point of interest for the 18 to 34 demographic.

The economy and the deficit are both a top priority for approximately one-quarter of Canadians, though notably they are generally perceived as more important by men than women.

The priorities among past party supporters are varied as well. Those who supported the CPC in 2019 lean heavily toward an emphasis on the deficit and the economy, while COVID-19 and climate change are among the highest priorities for all others:

The absence of the economy from Canadians’ top three priorities is noteworthy given that in every previous year of the Trudeau government’s budgets it was among the top three concerns. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing issue of climate change have evidently shifted policy preferences for many Canadians.

How many paid attention?

A public health pandemic into its fourteenth month has left Canadians pre-occupied, stressed, and exhausted. It also meant previously planned budgets were replaced with economic statements. After the longest period in Canadian history without a formal budget, most Canadians were only nominally aware, at best, that a budget had been tabled, with one-third (35%) following it closely:

More good than bad?

Broadly speaking, the content of the budget itself is viewed with sharp division by those who have read or heard about it. Indeed, a slight majority (54%) say that the budget was a net positive, while 46 per cent disagree. Women who followed the announcement are much more likely to say that the budget is a good one, while men over the age of 34 disagree most heavily:

With an election forecasted by many pundits for later in the year, it is notable that the budget is seen positively by an overwhelming majority of past Liberal, NDP, and Green voters. It is conversely panned by past Conservatives, and viewed as equally good and bad among those who supported the Bloc Quebecois in 2019:

*Small sample size, interpret with caution

What Canadians liked

When it comes to the specifics of the budget, the big winners are taxation measures aimed at higher income individuals. Just over half of Canadians (54%) say they like the addition of a one per cent tax on foreign-owned empty homes, while close to the same number (49%) say they like a new luxury tax on most vehicles priced over $100,000 (pre-tax), as well as personal aircraft and luxury boats.

The government’s trademark piece of policy in the budget, its allocation of $30 billion over five years for a $10 a day national child care program is chosen by 41 per cent.

Child care is particularly popular with women younger than 55. Continued support for small businesses that are enduring the effects of COVID-19 is also relatively popular, alongside the establishment of a $15 an hour minimum wage for federal workers:

What Canadians disliked

The most objectionable aspect of the budget for Canadians is the cost and associated deficit. The $154 billion deficit is $200 billion less than the previous fiscal year’s but nonetheless staggering to many Canadians. Half (49%) say that this is something they dislike. Three-in-ten (28%) also dislike Canada’s spending on projects designed to help reduce carbon emissions:

Men 35 years of age and older are most critical of the budget. This group is much more heavily opposed to significant spending, emission reduction programs, and child care:

Half say spending too high

The public are remarkably divided when it comes to the idea that Canada must spend more to emerge from the COVID-19 downturn. Asked whether they feel these extraordinary times call for extraordinary spending, half (51%) agree and half (49%) disagree. As noted, men over the age of 34 are most likely to be opposed to spending:

The budget expenditures cause far less concern among past Liberal, NDP and Green voters, at least 70 per cent of whom say that spending right now is justified. More than four-in-five past Conservative voters (85%) and 69 per cent of past Bloc Quebecois voters say too much is being spent: