Swing voter behaviour could inflate CPC’s percentage of popular vote to 54%, or shrink it to 27%
December 14, 2023 – It has objectively been a good year for Conservative Party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. His party has reportedly reached record levels of fundraising and now holds its largest advantage in vote intention since 2019.
But while new public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds ample reason for optimism at CPC headquarters, it also highlights potential pitfalls.
What results is a deep dive into the opportunities, and liabilities, for the opposition party and its leader as they try to cement an early and somewhat tenuous lead in vote intention.
At its largest and under the best possible circumstances, the CPC vote universe has the potential to grow to 54 per cent of the Canadian vote base. Were things to go terribly for the party however, the size of the CPC’s ballot haul could shrink to half that – just 27 per cent.
In play are so-called “soft voters”. These are Canadian adults who are either indicating they’ll vote CPC but aren’t fully locked into their vote, or those who say they’re planning to vote for either the NDP or Liberals – but could still consider the Conservatives.
The vote dynamics among these key groups reveal competing priorities and tensions. Should Poilievre and the CPC bank in one direction, they have the potential to lose swing voters. A deke in the other direction could split the bases, while some ideas are seen as safe and attractive across the spectrum.
Most attractive to these groups: a hypothetical CPC promise to block further privatization in health care. This concept is more likely to increase support for the CPC among more than three-in-five swayable Liberal (62%) and NDP (71%) voters, while also resonating with more than half of soft CPC voters (55%). Similarly, preserving current access to abortion is a winner among swayable centre-left voters and soft Conservatives.
By contrast, Poilievre’s public commitment to defund the CBC is one of the most likely promises to rankle soft voters currently placing their vote with the Liberals or NDP. The most talked about policy in the Conservative compendium – ending the federal carbon tax – is one that plays well to lock soft CPC and soft NDP voters. Soft Liberals, however, are most likely to say they would be dissuaded from the CPC if the carbon tax was killed.
More Key Findings:
- Vote intention finds the Conservatives commanding 41 per cent of the would-be electorate, compared to 24 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the New Democrats.
- Just three-in-five (58%) 2021 Liberal voters currently say they will vote for the party again, the lowest number since 2021.
- The word Canadians use most to describe Pierre Poilievre is “arrogant” (42%). This is chosen by one-in-five soft CPC voters (21%), half of soft Liberal voters who don’t rule out the CPC (48%), and two-in-five soft NDP voters who are also considering the opposition party (38%).
- Poilievre resonates most as a “strong critic of the current government” (79% agree) but is also seen by many as “insincere” (45% agree).
- One of the most likely changes to push soft Liberal voters away from the CPC is a situation where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau steps aside for a new leader. In this case, more than two-in-five (44%) say they would be less likely to consider the Conservatives.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
INDEX
Part One: Vote intention
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CPC leads by significant margin heading into 2024
Part Two: The swing voter
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Half are not fully committed to any party
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But who are they?
Part Three: CPC leadership – liabilities and opportunities
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How soft voters perceive Poilievre
Part Four: CPC policy – liabilities and opportunities
Part One: Vote intention
There is no federal election scheduled for 2024, but that won’t stop prognosticators from suggesting one may not be far off. A confidence and supply agreement between the Liberals and New Democrats held for all of 2023, but a looming confrontation over the NDP’s cooperation “red line” – national pharmacare – have led some to suggest an election could happen in the coming year. Conservative Party and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre has made it clear that his party is ready for an electoral faceoff based on the carbon tax.
CPC leads by significant margin heading into 2024
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government began the year trailing the opposition CPC in vote intention by single digits and saw that gap grow quarter over quarter. Two-in-five (41%) of Canadians say they would vote for the Conservative Party, compared to 24 per cent say they would support the Liberals, and one-in-five (20%) the NDP:
Across the country, at best, the Liberals are tied in vote intent with the Conservatives, but only in Quebec. There, both parties currently trail the Bloc Québécois, who have the support of nearly two-in-five (37%). Everywhere else, the CPC lead in vote intent, including in the always key electoral provinces of B.C. and Ontario:
The Liberals have seen significant erosion of their support from their 2021 base. Three-in-five (58%) who voted for the Liberals in the last federal election say they would repeat their vote today. Comparatively, the other major parties have fared better – and in the case of the CPC and Bloc, much better – at retaining their 2021 voters:
Part Two: The swing voter
Half are not fully committed to any party
With an election not imminently on the horizon, there is still time for the parties to influence voters’ minds with policies and promises. Respondents were asked to assess how committed they are to their party choice. Currently, the CPC enjoy the highest level of commitment, with nearly two-thirds of their current voter pool saying they are fully committed to their choice. That leaves one-third who are less committed to the CPC or are “soft” supporters of the party.
The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois have much higher proportions of their support which is soft. All in all, around half of the voter pool say their minds could be changed, and their votes could move before ballots are cast:
But who are they?
There are some demographic factors in play for each of the groups of soft voters. Conservative committed voters are older (52% 55+) than those who say they may change their mind (41% 55+). The same dynamic is true for the Liberals. Meanwhile, less committed NDP voters are older (32% 55+) than those who say they are locked into voting for the NDP (24% 55+). However, only for the Liberals is there a significant gender split. Soft Liberal voters are more likely to be male (47%) than those who say they are fully committed to voting Liberal come the next election (39%, see detailed tables).
These soft voters vary in make up depending on which way they are leaning. For Poilievre and the Conservatives, half of soft supporters previously voted for the party in 2021. But, providing evidence of the party’s recent gains in vote intent, the other half include those who placed their votes elsewhere in the previous election. One-in-eight (13%) of those who are leaning towards the CPC previously voted Liberal, while smaller sized groups of one-in-20 voted NDP (6%) or for the People’s Party (6%).
Soft Liberal voters, meanwhile, are mostly those who voted Liberal in 2021, further evidence perhaps that the party has much work to do to shore up its previous levels of support:
To gauge which direction uncommitted voters are looking, those who were not fully committed to a party choice were asked follow-up questions as to whether they would consider supporting the four major political parties. Two-thirds (65%) in this group said they would definitely or might consider the Liberal party, while approaching three-quarters (73%) say the same of the NDP. Two-thirds (63%) of uncommitted voters in Quebec say they hadn’t ruled out voting for the Bloc Québécois (see detailed tables).
Uncommitted voters are less likely to consider the Conservatives, but this is partially due to how many voters say they have already fully committed to voting for the CPC in the next election. Half (53%) of these uncommitted voters say they would think about voting CPC.
In total, including soft Liberal and NDP voters who are still considering to vote CPC, vote intent for the Conservatives could grow to as large as 54 per cent.
Part Three: CPC leadership – liabilities and opportunities
To further understand the risks and potential for the CPC amid its surge in voter intention, further questions focused on Pierre Poilievre and his party.
Soft voters are weighing many factors as they decided where they will ultimately place their vote in the next election. Leadership, and the personalities of the leaders, is one. Assessments of Poilievre have varied. He’s been described in media as “angry” and a “bully”, while others have labelled him as “smart” and “charismatic”.
How soft voters perceive Poilievre
The top adjective Canadians use to describe Poilievre is “arrogant” (42%) by a 10-point margin. One-in-three (32%) see him as “strategic”, while nearly as many choose the word “dishonest” (30%). One-quarter feel he is a “bully” (27%), but nearly as many describe him as “strong” (26%). For the full list of adjectives presented to respondents, see the questionnaire. As well, for similar assessments of Trudeau, see detailed tables.
Meanwhile, soft Liberal and NDP supporters who are open to voting CPC hold differing views than those who lean CPC but aren’t fully committed. The latter are more likely to describe Poilievre in a positive manner. Soft Liberals and NDP voters who are open to moving to the CPC are more negative in their assessments, generally, but aren’t uniform in their opinions.
In this pre-election period, as the CPC look to shape views of Poilievre with an advertising blitz, it is important to note that more than one-third of soft Liberal (36%) and NDP (38%) voters who are open to the CPC say they don’t know enough to assess Poilievre currently:
Respondents were asked to further assess Poilievre with a series of statements. Four-in-five (79%) Canadians agree that he “is a strong critic of the current government”. There is less agreement as to whether or not Poilievre is sincere or likeable or understands constituents’ important issues. Fewer than that believe he holds values similar to their own. There also appears to be doubt among Canadians that Poilievre “genuinely cares” about women or non-white people.
Soft CPC voters are more likely to offer praise than criticism of Poilievre, while soft Liberal and NDP supporters who aren’t ruling out voting for the CPC are more critical. However, NDP supporters are more likely to view Poilievre as “likeable” (28%) than Liberal supporters (18%), and more likely to view him as someone that understand issues important to them (29% vs. 22%):
Part Four: CPC policy – liabilities and opportunities
Party policies can be magnets for voters, with both the potential to attract and repel depending on the polarity. Respondents who were open to voting for the CPC were asked to assess potential policy commitments from the CPC, as well as some potential countermoves from their Liberal opponents.
Overall, commitments to public health care and repealing the carbon tax provide the strongest pulls to the CPC for potential voters across the political spectrum. Soft supporters across the political spectrum also say they would be more likely to vote CPC if Poilievre does “not reopen” the debate on abortion. There are other issues – such as defunding the CBC – which attract some soft CPC voters but repel others.
On these policy matters, there is some separation between soft NDP and Liberal voters who have not ruled out the CPC. Soft NDP voters say they are more likely to vote CPC if they commit to repealing the carbon tax, while that position could drive away soft Liberal supporters.
There is also a significant factor outside of CPC control – soft Liberal and NDP voters say they are less likely to consider the CPC if Justin Trudeau steps down before the election.
Related: Majority — including two-in-five past Liberal voters — say Trudeau should step down
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 24 to Dec. 1, 2023 among a representative randomized sample of 3,755 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For detailed results by voter commitment, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
To read the questionnaire, click here.
Image – John Lehmann (Pierre Poilievre/Facebook)
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org @davekorzinski
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147, jon.roe@angusreid.org @thejonroe