Two-thirds say cordial tone at White House meeting will not lead to true progress in trade war
October 10, 2025 – New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that in contrast with U.S. President Donald Trump’s sentiment, that Canadians will be “very happy” with the trade deal coming their way, most are feeling increasingly less confident that this is the case.
Overall, two-thirds (67%) say the cordiality shown by Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney this week is just optics, and will not lead to true progress on a deal, which missed a Trump-appointed deadline for signing in August. One-in-five (20%) are more hopeful that the warm tone between the two is a sign of a mutually beneficial deal to come.
The trend in confidence among Canadians, however, is going in the wrong direction.
In July, 46 per cent were confident that Canada would make a good deal, with 45 per cent not confident. In August and September, confidence dropped to 43 per cent. Now, just 35 per cent have confidence, while three-in-five (58%) lack it.
It’s not necessarily Carney that is driving this drop. In fact, a solid majority (58%) say that Trump’s unpredictability is their cause for disillusionment. This group who place the blame primarily on Trump includes 95 per cent of 2025 Liberal voters and a much smaller but still significant minority of Conservatives (37%).
More Key Findings:
- Trump’s administration remains deeply unpopular in Canada, with 13 per cent viewing it positively so far and 71 per cent negatively. Positivity peaks in Saskatchewan at 29 per cent and drops to nine per cent in Atlantic Canada
- Mark Carney’s approval holds at 50 per cent for the second consecutive month as negotiations continue, with Minister of Finance Dominic LeBlanc voicing hope that the two parties will “quickly” land deals on key exports like steel and aluminum
INDEX
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Two-in-five say Carney’s praise of Trump appropriate
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Most say positive tone only ‘optics’, not beneficial to dealmaking
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Confidence in delivering good deal declining
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Growing proportion say deal can’t be done because Trump ‘too unpredictable’
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Carney approval flat
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U.S. president remains deeply unpopular in Canada
Two-in-five say Carney’s praise of Trump appropriate
Prime Minister Mark Carney made his second visit to the Oval Office this week, following up a first visit in May. The media portion of the visit was dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump, who spoke at length about myriad issues while Carney alternated between keeping a poker face and smiling along. Both men had positive things to say about each other. Trump praised Carney as a “world-class” leader, and a “good man”, while Carney praised Trump in turn, calling him a “transformational President” and crediting him for increasing overall NATO funding, securing the border, and ending global conflicts including India and Pakistan, which India denies he has done.
For Canadians, the strategy of flattering Trump is mostly digestible, with 44 saying that it was appropriate. A significant segment, however – 33 per cent – say this was inappropriate, given the disrespect and hostility Trump has shown to Canadians over the first nine months of his presidency:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Most say positive tone only ‘optics’, not beneficial to dealmaking
At the end of the day, for most, dealing with the deeply unpopular president (more on this later) appears to be a means to an end. Unfortunately for Carney and potentially the rest of the country, few feel that this lovefest will have a positive impact on the negotiations, which have endured for much longer than anticipated. As a signal that they may be correct, just after the meeting with Trump and Carney this week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the prospect of a deal on the auto sector is not happening:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
Confidence in delivering good deal declining
Trump repeatedly stated in the Oval Office that Canadians will be “very happy” with the trade deal that is being negotiated. Canadians are less sure. Confidence in the Carney government to deliver a good deal for the country has been dropping in recent months, from 43 per cent in September to 35 per cent currently.
Growing proportion say deal can’t be done because Trump ‘too unpredictable’
While confidence in Carney and Canada’s team to deliver a good deal for Canada is one matter, why Canadians feel that way is another. The Trump 2.0 administration has been erratic. Tariffs have been announced, reversed and increased at unpredictable intervals throughout 2025.
With that in mind, respondents were asked a follow-up question which offered different paths as to why they were confident or not in the federal government’s ability to close a U.S. trade deal.
For Canadians who are not confident that Carney will put pen to paper on a U.S. trade deal, Trump’s unpredictability is the greater source of doubt (34%) than Carney’s competence (24%). And the share of Canadians who worry a trade deal won’t get done because of Trump’s fickleness has grown by 13 points:
Carney approval flat
The delays, and blown deadlines, to securing a U.S.-Canada trade deal have not affected Carney’s personal popularity so far. He still garners approval from half (50%) of Canadians:
U.S. president remains deeply unpopular in Canada
During this week’s meeting between Trump and Carney, the U.S. president spoke of “mutual love” between the two countries. “The people of Canada will love us again,” Trump said.
The love is not evident in public opinion. One-in-eight (13%) Canadians say they have a positive view of the Trump administration’s work since inauguration. Many more (71%) have a negative one, including a majority (59%) whose overall impression is “very negative”:
*Smaller sample size, interpret with caution
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Oct. 8-9, 2025, among a randomized sample of 1,517 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org