Carbon pricing troubles drive a widening gap between leading CPC and lagging Liberals in vote intention

Carbon pricing troubles drive a widening gap between leading CPC and lagging Liberals in vote intention

Two-in-five 2021 Liberal voters now looking elsewhere, bolstering CPC and NDP

November 20, 2023 – The latest data to be released from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Conservative Party of Canada leading the governing Liberal Party by 14 points nationally.

The CPC lead in all regions of the country outside of Quebec, where three-in-10 residents would support the Bloc Québécois (30%) or the Liberal Party (29%) and 23 per cent would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s party.

The Liberals have one remaining bastion of support at this point, women over the age of 54. Within this group, two-in-five (41%) would support Justin Trudeau’s party, while 28 per cent prefer the opposition CPC. Young women show an overwhelming preference for the NDP, while all other age and gender combinations lean toward the CPC at this point.

Two-in-five would-be voters say the carbon tax will be a major factor for them in deciding which party to support in the next federal election, with some voters presumably hoping to keep the tax in place to curb emissions, and others hoping to elect a Conservative government to “axe the tax”.

Related: Carbon Tax: Perceptions of insufficient rebates, cost of living concern & questions over efficacy send support plummeting

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.


CPC’s lead widens to 14 points

An early 2022 tie between the Liberals and the opposition dips further into the rearview, as the Conservative lead continues to grow.

Conservatives hold near nationwide advantage

The Conservative Party holds a lead in every region of the country outside of Quebec, where the Liberals and Bloc Québécois share top position.

Men show clear preference for CPC, women 55+ last remaining stronghold for Liberals

Men older than 54 now prefer the CPC by a two-to-one margin over the Liberals, while women of the same group offer the Liberals a 13-point advantage.

Young women overwhelmingly support Jagmeet Singh and the NDP, which jump the Liberal Party for second place among young men as well.

Vote retention a cause for Liberal, NDP concern

While 86 per cent of 2021 Conservatives say they will support the party again in a future election, the other major contenders see their past voters disembarking. Three-in-five 2021 Liberals and 64 per cent of New Democrats would support the party again.

Where have the Liberals gone?

Past Liberal voters continue to dissipate from the party ranks, with 18 per cent now saying they would vote for the NDP and one-in-eight preferring Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives:

The carbon tax factor

The issue of the month is undoubtedly the carbon tax.

Related Link: Carbon tax perceptions and support

Asked how much this issue will influence their vote in the next federal election, two-in-five Canadians say it will be a major factor. This proportion jumps to three-in-five among past Conservative voters.

Survey Methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 10–14, 2023 among a representative randomized sample of 2,512 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.


For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.

Image Credit – Pierre Poilievre Facebook Page.


Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 @shachikurl

Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 @davekorzinski