Most prefer joining ReArm Europe over U.S. alliance despite knowing it could harm relations with U.S.
June 10, 2025 – It’ll cost approximately $20 billion more dollars, but Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Monday that Canada will reach the NATO defence spending target of two per cent of GDP for this fiscal year. That mark has not been hit since 1990.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians largely supportive, two per cent of GDP or more on defence.
Half (51%) say that Canada should spend to this level, while 17 per cent say they would spend even more – a number that has doubled since March 2024 as questions about the reliability of the United States have percolated.
Carney stated that Canada will change “the way we support and invest in our Armed Forces” and will also proceed with collaboration in the “ReArm Europe” initiative underway across the Atlantic. One consideration in committing to join this European effort is the response from the United States. The American ambassador to Canada responded to Carney’s previous comments by saying that this could mean reduced willingness from the U.S. to share in Canada’s defence. For Canadians, it’s still the safer bet. Three-in-five (60%) say they prefer working with Europe to move away from reliance on the U.S. One-quarter (23%) say they would rather stay close to the U.S., while others are unsure (16%).
One step that appears to be too far, however, is the newer suggestion that nations target five per cent of GDP on defence spending. On this question, close to half (47%) say this is too high and will take away from other important domestic priorities, though still, 36 per cent would aim for this mark, something U.S. President Donald Trump has advocated for, and a target that many expect NATO to endorse later this month.
More Key Findings:
- Those who voted Conservative in the April 28 federal election are the most supportive of defence spending increases, with 52 per cent saying two per cent is the right target and one-quarter preferring to go higher (24%). One-in-seven Liberals (15%) would go beyond two per cent, while 56 per cent say the current plan is the right one. New Democrats and Bloc Québécois voters are less supportive, but a majority of each still support spending two per cent or more.
- How does Canada pay for the spending increase? Three-in-five (62%) say efforts should be made to cut from other government programs to cover the billions needed. Nine per cent would increase income taxes, while another nine per cent would run more deficit spending.
- Half of Canadians (50%) who want the government to spend to the two-per-cent NATO target say they’re confident the new Liberal government can make progress on strengthening Canada’s armed forces. But most (59%) who want Canada to spend even more than that doubt the Liberals will be able to bolster the military.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: The NATO target
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Support for increased defense spending has grown by 15 points in past year
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Agreement across party lines
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How should Canada fund more military spending?
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But can Canada get there?
Part Two: Going further?
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Half say potential 5% target “too high”
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Despite knowing U.S. response, majority support for ReArm Europe
Part One: The NATO target
It’s been more than a decade since the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) each agreed to spend at least two per cent of their GDP on defence spending. While Canada’s spending has risen in that time from a low of one per cent to 1.4 per cent last year, it has yet to hit the target, which has been a source of friction between the country and its fellow NATO members – especially the United States under President Donald Trump.
This week Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada planned to hit the two per cent defence spending target this fiscal year. This represents an acceleration of Carney’s previous pledge to hit the target by 2030.
Two-thirds (67%) say they support Canada increasing spending on its defence, including more than one-in-six (17%) who believe Canada should spend more than two per cent of its GDP on national defence. One-quarter (23%) prefer defence spending continue at the level it has been in recent years, while one-in-ten (10%) would reduce the budget of the armed forces:
Support for increased defense spending has grown by 15 points in past year
The support for military spending has grown considerably over the past six years. In 2019, fewer than half (43%) of Canadians said they would increase spending on defence compared to the 68 per cent who now do the same. In the years since ARI first asked this question, not only has the pressure ramped up on Canada from NATO allies but Canadians themselves have placed a higher emphasis on military strength in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In 2023, seven-in-ten (70%) Canadians said they felt Canada was “falling behind” in military power.
Agreement across party lines
In a rare case of agreement between the country’s two largest groups of political supporters, more than seven-in-ten recent Liberal (71%) and CPC (76%) voters believe Canada should increase defence spending. Those two groups of supporters are also the most likely to believe Canada should go further than the two-per-cent NATO target, though CPC voters are more on board with exceeding the current threshold (24%) than those who voted Liberal in April (15%).
NDP voters are most likely to want a reduction in defence spending (21%), but a slim majority (51%) still support an increase. Bloc Québécois supporters are also more likely to be on side with more military spending (55%) than standing pat (34%) or cutting the military budget (12%):
It has been a winding road to reach the state where majorities of all party voters believe Canada should be spending more on defence. A majority of CPC voters have wanted increased military spending for six years. Support among Liberal voters doubled from 2019 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but fell in the years after the invasion before rising again in these most recent data. Low initial support for additional defence spending among BQ and NDP voters has doubled in six years:
How should Canada fund more military spending?
Carney is boosting the budget of the Department of National Defence by $9.3 billion in the 2025-26 fiscal year, which taken with spending in other departments which count towards NATO’s target, will increase defence spending overall to $62.7 billion in 2025-26. In the last tabled economic statement in the fall of 2024, the federal government reported that the deficit was likely to be $62 billion for the 2023-24 fiscal year, and projected a $48.3 billion deficit in 2024-25 and a $42.2 billion deficit in 2025-26. None of those figures accounted for this increased defence spending and Carney did not say how the government would pay for the additional budget for the DND, but did appear to rule out raising taxes.
Among Canadians who would increase the country’s defence spending, a majority (62%) prefer that funds from other government departments would be reallocated to defence. Fewer than one-in-ten would increase the deficit (9%) or raise income taxes (9%) – which would represent a reversal of a campaign promise by the Carney government. Even fewer (6%) would raise GST.
There are differences across political lines on how Canadians would prefer to fund increased defence spending. Recent Liberal and NDP voters are more open to tax increases or increasing the deficit to boost military spending, while CPC voters show an overwhelming preference for shifting spending from other government ministries to defence:
But can Canada get there?
Strengthening Canada’s armed forces was a priority pillar laid out by the new Liberal government in its speech from the throne to open parliament at the end of May. In data taken prior to this announcement, Canadians are overall divided as to whether they believe Carney and the Liberals will make progress on this commitment (44%) or not (46%).
However, there is more confidence in the Liberals’ ability to build up the military among those who want Canada to meet the NATO target. Half (50%) in this group believe the government can make progress on this commitment, but there is a sizable group of more than two-in-five (44%) that express doubt. Those who want Canada to exceed the current NATO target have much less confidence in Carney and the Liberals to bolster Canada’s armed forces (59% not that confident or not confident at all):
Part Two: Going further?
Trump has suggested for months that NATO members should increase their spending target from two to five per cent of GDP. After finally putting together a plan to meet the two per cent target, after years of inaction, Canada will likely now need to decide whether or not to strive to hit that target, if NATO members do indeed sign onto it later this month at the NATO Summit in the Hague. Italy’s Defence Minister called the idea “impossible for almost all the nations in the world” in January. Carney said this week that the “fundamental goal in all this is to protect Canadians, not to satisfy NATO accountants”.
Half say potential 5% target “too high”
Canadians have eyed the two per cent target with relative enthusiasm in recent years, but it appears that five per cent is a bridge too far for many. This would entail more than tripling Canada’s current defence spending, and for 47 per cent, the number is just too high. This includes nearly half of Conservative voters, the most bullish on increasing spending to and beyond the two per cent mark. A significant group of more than one-in-three (36%) say this is a fair target and still one Canada should try to meet in the coming years.
Despite knowing U.S. response, majority support for ReArm Europe
Part of Canada’s renewed focus on defence and military spending is cooperation with European partners, through the “ReArm Europe” project. Through this, alternately titled “Readiness 2030”, European Union member states will vastly increase defence spending and manufacturing to strengthen capacity and relieve the United States of much of its “burden” in defending the region.
Carney has publicly supported the idea of joining the European rearmament plan by Canada Day, also looking to move away from reliance on the United States as Canada’s military protector. U.S. officials have bristled at the idea and threatened to reconsider NORAD – the North American Aerospace Defense Command – if Canada chooses to push closer to Europe.
With knowledge of the potential U.S. response (see questionnaire), Canadians show a clear preference for allyship with Europe rather than the U.S. under the Trump administration. Views diverge among Conservatives, but are consistently pro-ReArm Europe among others:
Survey Methodology
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from June 2 – 8, 2025, among a randomized sample of 4,067 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
