Campaign ends with a narrow lead for Mark Carney and the Liberals
April 26, 2025 – While it may be one of the most cliched statements about politics, in the case of Canada’s 45th federal election, it is also true: it will all come down to election day.
The non-profit Angus Reid Institute’s final data set before Monday, April 28 yields a number of contrasting stories, reinforcing key themes ARI has highlighted throughout the campaign: while the topline numbers tell a story on the surface, the undercurrents shape a deeper narrative.
Currently, vote intention favours the Liberal Party by four points (44%) over the Conservative Party (40%). These, with a two-point range given the margin of error on a probability sample. The Bloc Québécois are supported by seven per cent and the NDP by six.
One major takeaway is that turnout Monday will have a major impact on final party standings. While advance voters leaned heavily Liberal (46% vs 34% CPC) those who are decided or leaning and have yet to cast a ballot indicate e-day turnout is more likely to break evenly between the CPC and the Liberals (38% vote intention for each).
Also notable, the extent to which leadership – not party choice – has driven this campaign. Consider that when respondents were asked to consider how they’d vote if party, and not leader, were the deciding factor, electoral math is rearranged. Under such a scenario, the CPC would hold its vote at 40 per cent, but the Liberals would drop to just 28 per cent, and the NDP’s vote would more resemble its recent electoral performance than the single-digit horror show it appears to be facing.
All major national leaders have seen their momentum decline since the beginning of the campaign. Liberal leader Mark Carney, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre all face net negative momentum in the final days of the campaign. That said, the Liberals continue to hold an advantage in vote rich urban regions, and among women.
Given their late release – the Liberals’ the weekend of advance voting, the Conservatives’ the week after – the party platforms became somewhat of a footnote to the campaign. However, perhaps the platforms could have had more impact than the parties gave them credit for. Two-in-five (38%) of those who voted Liberal during the advance voting weekend say they would have liked to have read the Conservative platform before marking their ballot.
INDEX
Part One: Leaders lose momentum
- Carney personal favourability advantage holds
Part Two: Liberals lead by four points
- Advance vote favours Liberal Party
- Those yet-to-vote are divided
- Metro regions offer key to Liberal success on Election Day
- The gender chasm
- In a leaderless world, the CPC’s fortunes change
Part Three: Defining issues of the campaign
- The late CPC platform release
Part One: Leaders lose momentum
The final days of the campaign have seen the party leaders criss-crossing the country as remaining voters weigh their choices in advance of election day. All three leaders close the campaign with Canadians’ opinions more likely to be worsening than improving.
In the wake of the debates, CPC leader Pierre Poilievre came within shouting distance of Carney in personal momentum, but has lost ground in the subsequent week which saw the release of the Conservatives costed platform – notably after more than seven million Canadians had cast their ballot in advance voting.
*Note, the first three waves asked Canadians if their opinion of each had improved or worsened in “the past few weeks”, while the last two waves asked about “the last week”.
Carney personal favourability advantage holds
A majority of Canadians say they have a favourable view of Carney, a figure that has changed little in the past month. Carney’s negatives have risen over the course of the campaign, but he still holds an advantage on this measure compared to his rivals.
Poilievre’s inability to gain positive traction with Canadians will perhaps be an important chapter in the book of this election. His favourability has never crested above two-in-five, while a majority of Canadians have reported an unfavourable view of the CPC leader over the past year.
The fact that Conservatives have unleashed a slate of ads in the final days that don’t feature Poilievre has not gone unnoticed. Former Conservative cabinet minister Lisa Raitt speculated that perhaps the Conservatives are responding to feedback from voters during their door knocking that they are considering the party but don’t like the leader.
Part Two: Liberals lead by four points
Advance vote favours Liberal Party
An historic number of voters turned out in the four-day advance window. More than 7.3 million Canadians cast a ballot between April 18 – 21, a 25 per cent increase from 2021. Angus Reid Institute sampled advance voters in this study, finding that Liberal supporters were “elbows up” and out to vote, potentially establishing the party with a strong foundation heading into Election Day on Monday:
Those yet-to-vote are divided
The expectation is that advance voting will fall somewhere between 35 and 40 per cent of the total vote in this election, based on the 2021 election, where it accounted for 34 per cent and assuming a slight increase in proportion. With millions more votes to come, those who have note yet voted are equally likely to support the CPC (38%) or the Liberals (38%), with Bloc Québécois and NDP voters making up the same portion of both advanced and expected voters:
Aggregating these two groups produces a four-point lead overall for the Liberal Party.
While the CPC has slowly chipped away at the Liberal advantage over the past month, the party has been unable to surpass the incumbent:
Metro regions offer key to Liberal success on Election Day
It’s a story the Conservative Party has seen before, and if it holds is one that western provincial leaders will likely begin to tell their constituents – the CPC appears poised to rack up significant vote share west of Ontario but fall short of forming government. This western dominance includes a more positive outlook in British Columbia, where it received 33 per cent support in 2021. Meanwhile, a nine-point advantage in Ontario and a key lead in Quebec will shape the earlier hours of ballot counting. The Liberals also appear poised to regain a traditional stronghold in Atlantic Canada:
In the nation’s largest metropolitan areas, the Liberal Party appears to have the keys it needs to victory on Monday. Once competitive Toronto is now a heavy advantage for Carney’s party, which also looks poised to rack up seats in Montreal, pulling a majority of support in that region as well:
The gender chasm
The divide between men and women on which party they are supporting this election has been consistent. A plurality of men say they will support, or already have supported, the Conservatives, while a majority of women are backing the Liberals. The Conservatives have made inroads throughout the campaign among older men – perhaps by appealing to their pastimes – but find themselves with a large gap in support among older women:
In a leaderless world, the CPC’s fortunes change
Poilievre has been CPC and official opposition leader since September 2022 but has yet to break 40 per cent favourability with Canadians at any point during this term as noted above. Clearly, resonating outside of a base of supporters has been a challenge. It appears that he, and the other leaders of the major federal parties, are responsible for driving voters in a number of directions.
Consider the question asked to Canadians – what if you were to vote only for a party, assuming you were able to ignore all of the party leaders? In this case, the Conservatives hold a 12-point advantage over the Liberals. Without Carney and Poilievre battling it out, Liberal support drops to 28 per cent, NDP support rises to 15 per cent, and some Canadians go back to the Green Party:
Part Three: Defining issues of the campaign
For those who have already cast a ballot the core motivations are clear. Asked what issues they were voting based on, the cost of living, the U.S. tariff saga, and the economy were the primary drivers. Housing affordability and health care make up a secondary but still important tier of priorities, chosen by one-quarter:
The late CPC platform release
The Conservatives’ costed platform was not released prior to the record turnout at the advance polls. Two-thirds of advance voters say it doesn’t matter to them that they didn’t have an opportunity to factor that into their vote, but notably two-in-five (38%) of those who say they have already voted Liberal also say they would’ve liked to have had a chance to see what the Conservatives planned to do in governance prior to placing their vote:
Poilievre best on reducing waste, housing, Carney wins on economy, trade, health care
No one issue will decide the election, as seen above with the variety of priorities Canadians offer, but trust across this suite of top concerns can provide a compass for the result. On his key offering for the past two years – to reduce the cost of living –Poilievre (39%) splits preference with Carney (37%), with 24 per cent of Canadians unsure who would be best. Poilievre is seen by a large margin as better to cut wasteful spending
Carney, meanwhile, has clear advantages on handling the trade war with the U.S., supporting workers who are hurt by that issue, and expanding trade to partners beyond the U.S. He also has smaller, but still double-digit advantages on two huge issues – health care and the economy. Carney’s advantage over Poilievre on the building of new housing is marginal.
METHODOLOGY:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 23-26, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,820 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
