Canadians and Americans agree Russia started the war and Russia is prolonging it
March 11, 2025 – After a seemingly calm conversation in the oval office exploded between American President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, many Canadians and Americans alike have taken a renewed interest in the conflict underlying it. And while U.S. officials are hopeful of “significant progress” during peace talks this week in Saudi Arabia, few have faith in Trump’s boast that he would bring the war to an end within his first 100 days in office.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds residents in both Canada and the U.S. dubious that the war will be brought to an end by April 29, Trump’s 100th day of his second term. More than half of Americans (54%) and seven-in-10 Canadians (70%) view this prospect as unlikely, even as the parties meet in Saudi Arabia this week.
Trump’s position on Russia has been criticized in recent weeks, after he appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war. On this he is out of step with his own country, his own supporters, and Canadians. Seven-in-10 Americans say Russia began this conflict, while 82 per cent of Canadians agree. Just 16 per cent of Trump voters agree with him that Ukraine is to blame, while 63 per cent blame Russia.
With negotiations ongoing, but the productivity coming out of them uncertain, there is a sense among Canadians and Americans that Ukraine stands to lose if Trump is the one making a deal. Seven-in-10 Canadians believe that Ukraine will be hurt by a Trump-negotiated peace deal (71%), while a similar number say a such a deal would benefit the U.S. (71%) and Russia (77%). In the U.S., most say Russia (54%) will benefit, while fewer than half say the U.S. (42%) or Ukraine (30%) will see value.
More Key Findings:
- Attention paid to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached its highest level since the war began, spurned on by the Trump-Zelenskyy White House argument. Four-in-five are following closely (79%), while half say this in the U.S. (52%).
- Majorities in both countries say it “feels like we are on the path to World War Three” with the way this conflict is being handled: in Canada 62 per cent, in the U.S. 56 per cent.
INDEX
Part One: Renewed attention on Russia-Ukraine conflict after Trump-Zelenskyy blowout
- Comparing Canadian and American views of the conflict
- Little disagreement over who started the war and who’s keeping it going
Part Two: The art of the deal?
- Can Trump get a deal done within his first 100 days?
- Who wins or loses with Trump as mediator?
- Concerns abound about more conflict, World War Three
Part One: Renewed attention on Russia-Ukraine conflict after Trump-Zelenskyy blowout
Canada is learning the hard way just how difficult it can be to discern truth from reality in dealing with American President Donald Trump. With the proverbial tariff tap being turned on and off each month, the re-elected leader’s words are like water, constantly changing depending on the situation.
When Trump failed to bring an end to the Ukraine-Russia war within 24 hours of retaking office, it’s unlikely many were surprised. Trump later stated his real target would be the first 100 days of his presidency.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faced this head on during a Feb. 28 meeting with the President and his vice president. The two leaders had a heated exchange, and Trump later announced that the U.S. would be suspending all military aid to Ukraine.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, this caught the attention of Canadians. Canada has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since the outset of the conflict, and more Canadians are now following the issue than at any of the previous times Angus Reid Institute has asked over the past three years.
For their part, Americans are much less likely to claim they have been following this issue closely, though half still do:
Comparing Canadian and American views of the conflict
As has been the case since the beginning of the conflict, favourability toward Ukraine in Canada dwarfs that offered to Russia. Seven-in-10 Canadians (72%) view the former favourably, compared to just nine per cent for Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Canada has already committed more than $20 billion in aid to Ukraine, across military, humanitarian, and financial channels. Americans, too, are far more likely to view Ukraine favourably than Russia, despite their president’s declaration that he finds it “easier” to deal with Russia:
Current Conservative Party voters in Canada align with the American public rather than the rest of their own country when it comes to favourability of each nation. In the U.S., one-in-five Trump voters view Russia favourably, nine points fewer than say this of Ukraine (30%):
Little disagreement over who started the war and who’s keeping it going
Until Trump suggested that Ukraine had instigated the war with Russia, few had considered this as reality. In early 2022, Russia announced it would be conducting a “special military operation” in the Donbas region, which culminated in the largest military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War. Few Canadians or Americans believe that Ukraine started the war; in each case eight per cent say this. Further, A firm majority in both countries also say that Russia is prolonging it:
Part Two: The art of the deal?
Can Trump get a deal done within his first 100 days?
Conversations between Ukrainian and American officials continue this week in Saudi Arabia, despite the tensions between the two nations’ leaders. Trump stated on March 7 that he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants peace” but also threatened sanctions on Russia to attain a ceasefire after large-scale bombing of Ukraine continued. Three-in-10 Americans and one-in-five Canadians say they feel an end to the war will be negotiated before the end of April:
Who wins or loses with Trump as mediator?
With Trump playing such a seemingly pivotal role in mediating the conflict, Canadians and Americans expect a better deal for Russia than the other countries involved. One-in-six (16%) Canadians and 30 per cent of Americans say they expect Ukraine to benefit from any deal, while far higher numbers say Russia will benefit a little or a lot:
Concerns abound about more conflict, World War Three
Canadians have been concerned about the Russia-Ukraine conflict spilling over to other parts of the globe since 2022, when four-in-five said they felt the potential for other western allies to be pulled in. Asked now, three years in, if it feels as though we are on the path to another major global conflict, one-in-five Canadians and Americans strongly agree this is the case, while smaller numbers agree less forcefully:
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 27 to March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
ARI conducted a second online survey from Feb. 27 to March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
For detailed results for Canadian respondents by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For detailed results for American respondents by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full report, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
