Two-thirds say Trump will change his mind and add additional tariffs on Canadian goods
April 11, 2025 – While Canada and most of the rest of the world have evidently received a reprieve in the ongoing trade war with the United States, which appears to have picked a much larger battle with China, few Canadians are feeling mollified.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds nine-in-10 Canadians (91%) are concerned about the prospect of a recession in the coming year. Indeed, during this federal election campaign, this is one of the few questions that unify all potential voters, with at least 85 per cent of all partisans sharing in this concern.
Perhaps driving some of this concern, two-thirds of Canadians expect the tariff saga between their country and the U.S. is far from over. This group expects Trump will change his mind about not applying greater tariffs to Canadian exports at some point in the future (66%), while just 14 per cent disagree. One-in-five (21%) are hesitant to try and predict Trump’s next move.
With markets tanking, recovering, tanking, and then recovering again, and job losses mounting, Canadians are also concerned about how their own finances will endure this period. Four-in-five (83%) are wary of their household finances taking a hit. Fully half (50%) say that they or someone in their household are at risk of losing a job should this economic turmoil persist.
Even without additional tariffs, many Canadians are expecting an economic shock. More than four-in-five (86%) say that already existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, some automotive parts, and non USCMA-compliant goods will cause serious damage to the Canadian economy. Some economic indicators from March have already pointed to this.
INDEX
Part One: How concerned are Canadians about tariff impacts?
- Tariff Concern Index
- Vote intention and tariff concern
Part Two: Most expect Trump to change his mind and add tariffs later
- Who gets credit for Canada avoiding additional tariffs?
- Half of Canadians say Carney played a role
Part One: How concerned are Canadians about tariff impacts?
Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday, just one week after the historic economic upheaval precipitated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, that these policies are “putting people’s livelihoods in jeopardy” in Canada. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Trump for creating “chaos” and the previous Liberal government for making Canada “so dependent on the Americans”. On the same day, Trump reportedly paused some tariffs for 90 days, while increasing the levy on China to more than 100 per cent, continuing to treat the global economy as a proverbial yo-yo.
As Canadians watch from north of the border, nine-in-10 (91%) say they are now concerned about the prospect of recession in the coming year. Further, four-in-five (83%) are concerned about harm to their household finances, and half say someone in their house may lose a job.
Tariff Concern Index
To get a clearer understanding of Canadians’ level of concern, Angus Reid Institute aggregated these scores to create a Tariff Concern Index. More than three-in-five Canadians can be categorized as the Concerned – those who have a level of heightened level of concern about at least two of these financial aspects. Those who are on the middle of this index – the Wary – have a mix of concern and unconcern, while the Unconcerned have no qualms.
The most heightened levels of concern over the impact of tariffs in Canada are those in Ontario and Alberta. Both regions face massive levels of uncertainty as their core industries have been discussed targets of both tariff and counter tariff policies. Oil prices in Alberta dropped close to 20 per cent over the past week, while Ontario’s auto industry braces for what could be crippling fallout:
Vote intention and tariff concern
It has been evident in the data for weeks that Canadians prefer Mark Carney and the Liberals to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives when it comes to Donald Trump and U.S. tariff negotiations. This is re-confirmed when looking at the Tariff Concern Index. Those who voice the highest levels of stress offer Carney a 19-points vote advantage, while the Wary are divided and the Unconcerned prefer the CPC by 30 points.
Part Two: Most expect Trump to change his mind and add tariffs later
The tariff saga has now featured multiple whiplash moments, with tariffs being delayed at the last minute or increased at the whim of the president. Canadians evidently feel that their position is vulnerable to this, with two-thirds (66%) saying they expect Trump will change his mind and increase tariffs on Canada again at some point. Even if he doesn’t, there is an expectation that immense harm will be done based on the already existing tariffs. Nearly nine-in-10 (86%) say this is the case:
Who gets credit for Canada avoiding additional tariffs?
Many groups and individuals have been working to ensure Canada is not further hit with tariffs. This includes Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who reportedly had a “cordial” conversation with Trump, but also extends to some Republicans who have pushed back on Trump’s aggressive policy toward his nation’s closest ally. Asked who they believe has been most influential in helping Canada to avoid additional tariffs, Carney is chosen by 28 per cent, anti-tariff Republicans by 22 per cent, and Trump himself, by 17 per cent. An additional one-in-seven (12%) say all of them were equally influential. One-in-five (20%) are unsure.
Half of Canadians say Carney played a role
While Carney may not have been the most influential figure in the minds of many Canadians, half give him at least some credit for Canada avoiding new tariffs. One-in-five (19%) say he deserves a lot of credit, including twice that number among current Liberal voters. One-in-three (35%) offer him a little credit, while three-in-10 say he played no role. The latter is the position of most current Conservative voters (69%):
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 4-7, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,184 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full report, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
