Kinew continues to lead (67%), while Ford (34%) and Legault (36%) are least approved-of leaders
December 11, 2024 – The year ends with some big bounces in approval for a couple of post-election premiers, and the continuation of a troubling trend for Quebec’s François Legault.
The latest quarterly data on Canadians’ assessments of their province’s premiers from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Manitoba Wab Kinew as the most positively appraised premier for the fifth quarter in a row. Two-thirds (67%) in Manitoba approve of Kinew’s performance as premier.
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, who navigated what has been choppy political waters for incumbents in elections around the world, emerges from that province’s November election with a strengthened majority and approval of 55 per cent of his constituents, a 14-point bump from pre-election assessments. Houston and the PCs mix of campaign policies to address affordability in the province – including tax cuts – have proven to be not only successful election material but also perhaps increased Houston’s personal favourability.
In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe survived the election with a narrower majority but does see his own personal approval rise as he begins a new term. A slight majority (52%) in Saskatchewan approve of Moe.
B.C. Premier David Eby also faced a challenge in that province’s election – capturing just enough seats to win a majority government – but did not see his own approval change. Approval of Eby has been between 43 and 48 per cent since he became premier.
With the departure of New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs after his election loss to new Premier Susan Holt (54% approval), Ontario’s Doug Ford (34%) and Quebec’s (36%) François Legault find themselves at the bottom of the list with approval of one-third in their respective provinces.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
INDEX
- Alone at the top – Wab Kinew
- Re-election bounces – Houston, Moe and newcomer Holt
- Consistency out west (and east) – Eby, Smith and Furey
- The big two at the bottom – Ford and Legault
Alone at the top – Wab Kinew
With positive assessments from two-thirds of his constituents, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is comfortably the most approved-of premier in the country for the fifth consecutive quarter. Kinew has delivered policies to address key campaign promises – affordability and health care – while acknowledging some issues will take more than a year in office to fix, especially when it comes to the latter. Though the province has made good progress on its goal of hiring more health-care workers, staffing shortages are still a “chronic” issue in some fields and Manitoba has the second-largest surgical wait list in the country.
“On a personal level, I would love it if we could just snap our fingers and say, ‘New (emergency room) over here, all these people staffed up over there’,” Kinew told Global News on the one-year anniversary of his election. “But the reality is it will take time.” For now, he has a large store of public good will as the calendar turns to 2025.
Re-election bounces – Houston, Moe and newcomer Holt
The post COVID-19 era of elections has not been kind to incumbent governments. Yet, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and the Progressive Conservatives bucked the trend, winning in November not only re-election, but an even larger majority than the party had prior to the dropping of the writs. It had been 40 years since the PCs had won such a large majority in the province. With cost of living continuing to be a top issue in the minds of Canadians, key campaign promises by the PCs with regards to affordability – including tax cuts and a cap on electricity rate increases – played a significant role.
With a new mandate in hand, approval of Houston has rebounded from the downward trend heading into the election. More than half (55%) of those in Nova Scotia approve of Houston.
In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party were dealt October election results that have been the more common experience for incumbents in recent times. While still securing a majority, the Saskatchewan Party won 14 fewer seats than it did in 2020 and will face a strengthened NDP opposition that saw its seat count nearly double from the dissolution of legislature.
On election night, Moe conceded his government “must do better in health and education” as it faces a starkly divided province with all but one Saskatchewan Party MLAs coming from outside of the now NDP-dominated cities of Saskatoon and Regina. Moe begins the new term with majority (52%) approval.
New Brunswick elected its first woman to the office of premier as Susan Holt and the New Brunswick Liberals won a majority mandate, defeating former Premier Blaine Higgs and the Progressive Conservatives. Higgs had long languished at or near the bottom of the premier approval rankings, garnering praise from at most one-third of those in the province for more than two years.
Holt and the Liberals found success by pledging several affordability policies during the campaign but will have to figure how to deliver on them while also following through on their promise to maintain a balanced budget starting next fiscal year. The province is projected to run a deficit for the fiscal year ending in April. Holt begins her initial term with approval of 53 per cent in the province:
Consistency out west (and east) – Eby, Smith and Furey
In B.C., Premier David Eby and the BC NDP survived a tightly contested election to emerge with just enough seats to secure a majority government. Already, Eby and his government faced criticism for not holding a fall seating of the legislature, with opposition members arguing he isn’t following through on an election promise to rapidly address the issues at the centre of the campaign such as health care, public safety and the cost of living. Eby said last week that a plan to implement involuntary care to treat individuals suffering from addiction will be ready soon – a policy adopted during the election by the BC NDP in an about-face.
Eby has not enjoyed the post-election bump of his peers, but views of him have not suffered, as more than two-in-five (46%) in the province say they approve of his performance. In the more than two years that Eby has held the office of premier, public opinion of him has varied little:
Across the border, a similar pattern emerges with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who is approved-of by 45 per cent of Albertans, or statistically where she’s been for the two years since she took office. Assessments of her job are much higher within her own party – she passed a November leadership review with 91.5 per cent approval by United Conservative Party members. But those plaudits weren’t taken for granted, as there were rumblings a provincewide summer tour of townhalls by Smith was designed to quell an unhappy base.
Smith and the UCP came out swinging at a familiar target in the fall legislature session – Ottawa. The province said it plans to use the Sovereignty Act to “fight back” against the federal government’s proposed emissions cap which it argues will cap oil and gas production in Alberta and damage the province’s economy.
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey faces an election in 2025 and the speculation is that it may happen sooner than later. Furey has been in recent weeks boosting his government’s performance so far in office, arguing the Liberals inherited a province that was “almost bankrupt” and his government has done much to turn things around.
Assessments of Furey have often been at a similar level. More than two-in-five (46%) in the province approve of his performance:
The big two at the bottom – Ford and Legault
Furey and Newfoundland and Labrador aren’t the only province infected by early election fever. Forthcoming rebate cheques for Ontarians and the fast-tracking of bills during the fall legislative session have added fuel to the fire of early election speculation that has been burning for months now. Ontario Premier Doug Ford continues to struggle with low personal approval – one-third (34%) in the province say they approve of him – but that has meant little for his Progressive Conservative Party’s electoral fortunes.
Ford has been vocal about the need for the federal government to react to the threat of tariffs from incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, which threaten to damage the Canadian economy in general, but also key Ontario industries such as auto manufacturing.
Meanwhile, Ford is looking to address public safety in Ontario with new legislation to allow municipalities to dismantle homeless encampments backed by the notwithstanding clause. This comes after a 2023 Ontario Supreme Court ruling stopped the Waterloo Region from evicting people from an encampment because doing so infringed upon Charter rights.
Approval of Quebec Premier François Legault remains low at 36 per cent – a far cry from the previous peaks the Coalition Avenir Quebec leader had seen during his two-term stint as premier. The province’s health-care system continues to struggle with long wait-times but also with a significant deficit which required Santé Québec, the crown corporation newly organized to run the health system, to make cuts.
The province was also dealt a blow when the parent company of Northvolt announced it had filed for bankruptcy protection. Quebec and the federal government invested in Northvolt’s plans for a $7-billion electric vehicle battery plant in the province. Despite the bankruptcy filing increasing uncertainty around the project, Quebec’s economy minister assured that the battery plant is still a go.
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 29 to Dec. 5, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 4,004 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. Regional margin of errors are listed below. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
For the full release, click here.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
Summary table
