Premiers’ Performance: As Election Day looms for three, Eby up, Moe down, Higgs remains least approved-of -

Manitoba’s Wab Kinew’s political honeymoon continues with 66 per cent approval rating

September 19, 2024 – For three premiers in Canada, assessments of their job performances come with high stakes as campaign writs will be issued in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick in the coming days.

With a close contest burgeoning in B.C., a more competitive than usual race in the prairies, and a surging opposition in Atlantic Canada, there’s plenty of intrigue abound, and views of party leaders are taking on a heightened importance. For BC NDP leader David Eby, the data from his home province represents a slight boost of confidence against a vote intention trend that has seen his party give ground to the provincial Conservatives. Eby’s approval bumps up slightly from 43 to 46 per cent compared to last quarter. For Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe, the trend is marginally downward, as his approval falls four points to 45 per cent. In New Brunswick, it’s the same story, and not a good one for Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs, who takes the bottom spot in the nationwide approval ratings, offered praise from just three-in-10 (30%).

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.

INDEX

Facing re-election in October

B.C.’s Eby draws slight pre-election bump
Saskatchewan’s Moe at two-year low
New Brunswick’s Higgs sees lowest rating of all premiers

The rest of the story

Manitoba’s Kinew maintains top spot
Alberta’s Smith, Newfoundland and Labrador’s Furey approved of by 46 per cent
Nova Scotia’s Houston, Quebec’s Legault approved of by two-in-five
Ontario’s Ford unchanged at 31 per cent

Facing re-election in October

B.C.’s Eby draws slight pre-election bump

British Columbia Premier David Eby is just weeks away from an election, expected Oct. 19, and has made headlines in recent days with high-profile policy changes. Eby announced that if re-elected his party will end the provincial “consumer” carbon tax – supposing that the federal mandate is removed in the future – and only retain the tax on “big polluters”. This, and an announcement to support mandatory treatment of those with severe mental health and addictions issues, have the opposition casting the label of “flip-flopper”, but the reversals have not negatively impacted views of the premier at this point. Eby sees a slight bump up to 46 per cent approval, a number right around his average over the past two years:

Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe at two-year low

Political contests in Saskatchewan have not been particularly competitive in recent years, with the Saskatchewan Party coasting to comfortable majorities in four consecutive elections since 2007. And while the incumbent party does look to have the inside lane over the opposition NDP, the gap between the two parties was seven points in August, the closest the two have been since the last election. Premier Scott Moe also sees his approval on a downward trend, with 45 per cent saying they approve of his performance currently. Ultimately, both the Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP will have the opportunity to campaign and strengthen their positions on the top issues facing the province – health care, the cost of living, and the economy.

New Brunswick’s Higgs sees lowest rating of all premiers

In New Brunswick, Progressive Conservative Party leader Blaine Higgs faces by far the worst public opinion landscape of the three leaders seeking a new term. Higgs continues to be the least popular leader in the country, with three-in-10 saying they approve of his performance. Higgs has recently expressed concerns about the number of asylum seekers that the federal government is hoping will settle in the province, saying that financial compensation from the government is insufficient. Federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller has called the comments “misleading”. The race between the opposition Liberals and governing Conservatives appears competitive, with the provincial Green Party also generating significant double-digit support:

The rest of the story

Manitoba’s Kinew maintains top spot

The sun continues to shine on the eastern plains of Canada’s prairies. Manitoba NDP leader and Premier Wab Kinew garners approval from two-thirds of residents just days ahead of the one-year anniversary of his party’s electoral victory. Kinew has, however, faced criticism recently after his decision to remove a party backbencher from caucus due to links with a law firm that represented a convicted sex offender. Mark Wasyliw, who was booted from the party, has called the premier a bully in response.

Alberta’s Smith, Newfoundland and Labrador’s Furey approved of by 46 per cent

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s approval rating holds steady despite a swirl of controversy in the province. Smith and other ministers came under fire for accepting tickets to Edmonton Oilers games during that team’s run to the Stanley Cup Finals in the spring. Some of the ministers were invited by the CEO of a medical supply and distribution company at the centre of a controversial deal to buy Turkish children’s pain medication during a shortage. Smith and the ministers have defended accepting the tickets, saying they followed ethics rules, which were broadened last year to allow elected officials to accept higher value gifts.

The Alberta government also withheld funding of Calgary’s Green Line LRT, stopping construction of the new transit line while it hired a third-party to review the project. So far $1.3 billion had been spent on the project, and it’s expected a further $830 million will have to be spent to wind the project down. Smith’s government was also criticized for a plan to transfer hospitals to third parties to create both competition and “fear” among Alberta Health Services administrators that they would have hospitals taken away. The latter plan was heavily criticized by the president of the Alberta Medical Association.

Through it all, approval of Smith has held at the same level seen for much of her time in the premier’s office. More than two-in-five (46%) approve of Alberta’s premier, while half (50%) do not.

Approval of Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey has been up and down since he first took the office in 2020. Currently, more than two-in-five (46%) of provincial residents approve of Furey, while a similar number (42%) do not. This represents a drop in approval from last quarter. Furey signalled he plans to lead the provincial Liberal party into the next election, scheduled for 2025.

Furey shuffled his cabinet this summer to more of a priority on mental health, addictions and rural economic development. The move was criticized by PC opposition leader Tony Wakeham, who said the government hasn’t done enough to address the rising cost of living and issues with the health-care system.

Nova Scotia’s Houston, Quebec’s Legault approved of by two-in-five

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston’s approval has been on a steady trend downward since June 2023. Currently, two-in-five (41%) approve of the Progressive Conservative premier. The Nova Scotia government has tried to draw attention to improvements the province has made to the health care system, a key issue and a pillar of the PC’s campaign in 2021. However, the waitlist for a family doctor in the province has continued to grow, and opposition leaders say not enough has been done. The chance for residents to more officially weigh in on Houston’s performance may come sooner than later, as speculation swirls over the possibility of an early election call.

Approval of Quebec Premier François Legault has rebounded by eight points to 39 per cent from a low of 31 per cent seen at the end of 2023. However, he faces a growing number of issues in the province. A member of the Coalition Avenir Quebec caucus left to sit as an independent in a dispute over growing budget deficits, the fourth departure by a MNA from the party in over a year.

Legault was dealt a further blow by the sudden announcement that Economy Minister Pierre Fitzgibbon was stepping down, saying he wasn’t motivated enough to finish out his term. The resignation by the minister comes as he was spearheading a pivotal energy bill set to transform the province’s electricity system with an eye towards making Quebec carbon neutral by 2050. However, Fitzgibbon had said the bill could lead to “significant increases” in electricity rates, countering Legault himself, who has insisted that rates would not increase by more than three per cent per year for residents.

Ontario’s Ford unchanged at 31 per cent

Ontario’s move to broaden the availability of alcohol to convenience stores has been heavily criticized for both its fiscal cost – an up to $225 million payout to The Beer Store to end an exclusive deal a year early – and its social one as many convenience stores in the province are located near schools and some worry that widespread alcohol sales come at too high of a cost to people’s health. Some have also argued the province is using the expansion of alcohol sales to weaken the power of the unions representing workers at the Beer Store and Liquor Control Board of Ontario stores. LCBO workers were on strike during the summer partially in response to the government’s decision to fast-track alcohol sales in convenience stores.

Though novel in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario’s foray into selling alcohol at convenience stores is not without precedence in Canada. Quebec has had alcohol sales at convenience stores since 1978, and Alberta has implemented a trial run of sales in some 7-Eleven stores in the province since 2021.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has defended the decision to expand alcohol sales, calling the payout to the Beer Store “a great deal,” while saying stores near schools will be “very responsible”. His approval remains unchanged. Three-in-ten (31%) Ontarians approve of Ford:

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Sept. 12-18, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 3,985 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. Regional margins of error are below. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.