Premiers’ Performance: Eby, Ford and Legault face post-tariff tension tumble, while Smith and Kinew rise -

Nova Scotia’s Houston and New Brunswick’s Holt approved of by three-in-five (58%)

June 12, 2025 – The dust that is settling from the late-winter tariff blowup between Canada and the United States threatens to rise again with the slightest stir from President Donald Trump, but for now, Canadians have set the tariff threat aside in their top priorities.

What this means for many of Canada’s premiers is a tumble back down the public opinion mountain as residents return to assessing their leaders’ performance based on handling intractable domestic challenges such as the cost of living, health care, and housing affordability, rather than “elbows up” crisis management.

For Ontario’s Doug Ford and Quebec’s Francois Legault this means a double-digit drop after a brief boost in March. In British Columbia, David Eby is also down seven points as he and Ford both defend controversial legislation passed to speed up infrastructure projects. In Manitoba, where concerns of wildfires have dominated the attention of tens of thousands, Premier Wab Kinew is approved of by 68 per cent, the highest mark in the nation. Here are the June Premier Approval Ratings.

Note: Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.

INDEX

Top of the class – Kinew, Houston, Holt
Middle of the pack – Smith, Moe
Falling down the charts – Eby, Ford, Legault
Jury’s still out – Hogan

Top of the class – Kinew, Houston, Holt

It has already been a difficult summer for forest fires in Manitoba, with more than 18,000 people evacuated because of the flames spreading across the province. Premier Wab Kinew praised his residents’ resilience and cooperation in the face of the disaster. And at the moment there’s much mutual admiration in the province, as Kinew earns the highest approval rating of any premier with approaching seven-in-10 (68%) approving of his performance in Manitoba. For six straight quarters, Kinew has earned at least 60 per cent approval and he bests all others by at least 10 points this wave.

Kinew earns praise as he offers Manitoba as a potential destination for the kind of nation-building projects expected to be fast tracked by new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney. Manitoba’s premier has suggested his province could be home to an energy corridor including a potential pipeline to Hudson Bay. The idea has been met with some resistance from Kinew’s own party, after former party vice president and MLA candidate Chris Wiebe resigned. Wiebe said Kinew’s pipeline suggestion runs counter to a “no new pipelines” position the party occupied in the lead up to the 2023 election.

However, it appears Kinew’s “centrist political balancing act”, as some of have called it, has helped maintain his personal popularity.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has given the universal sign that he has federal political aspirations – he’s learning French. That fact has only added fuel to the fire that he apparently has eyes for the job currently occupied by Pierre Poilievre. In the meantime, he says he’s focused on his current role heading up Nova Scotia. It’s one that’s earned him plenty of plaudits in recent months from Nova Scotians. Three-in-five (59%) in the province approve of his performance.

Houston has led the way in dismantling inter-provincial trade barriers, signing deals with five other provinces. Nova Scotia stands to benefit from this free trade focus, as half of the province’s exports are inter-provincial.

Addressing affordability for residents in New Brunswick was a key pillar of the Liberals’ and Premier Susan Holt’s successful fall election campaign. Following through on a rent cap and freeze of property values have kept her in most residents’ good books. Three-in-five (58%) approve of her performance. However, there remains one promise yet to be legislated. Critics have pointed to the lack of progress on the repeal of the carbon adjustor, a fluctuating fee which passes the cost of federal environment regulations onto consumers.

Middle of the pack – Smith, Moe

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has placed herself firmly in the centre of the national political scene this year, whether by visiting Mar-a-Lago as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs in January, stirring up separatist sentiment by lowering the bar for the province to hold a referendum, or pressing the new Carney Liberal government to follow through on its campaign promises to make Canada an “energy superpower”. Evidently, her recent politicking has resonated with Albertans, as her approval climbs above half (51%) for the first time since she became premier in 2022.

The national stories have perhaps provided a helpful distraction from provincial controversies, including the ongoing “CorruptCare” scandal set off by a wrongful dismissal lawsuit filed by the former CEO of Alberta Health Services. A former Manitoba provincial court chief judge was supposed to file his interim report into the scandal in May, but has had his deadline extended until September.

Despite the rising topline number for Smith, she remains the most polarizing premier in the country. Most Albertans fall into the two opposite ends of the spectrum in assessing Smith: 32 per cent strongly approve of her while 37 per cent strongly disapprove of her performance. Notably, only Smith and Kinew can boast having at least one-third of residents strongly approve of their performance. But only Smith and Quebec Premier François Legault have more than one-third in the strongly disapprove column.

Saskatchewan has also suffered through a difficult start to the wildfire season but has faced more criticism for its response than neighbouring Manitoba. The province’s ombudsman accused the government of being too slow to provide food and shelter to evacuees, of which there are currently more than 15,000. Scott Moe’s government has responded by saying they’re doing their best and moving as fast as they can.

Meanwhile, Saskatchewan has suffered under 100-per-cent import tariffs on canola imposed by China, which has perhaps slipped under the radar as Canadians focused on the threats by, and tariffs from, the United States. In April, Moe called the Chinese canola tariff “the most urgent and most significant tariff impacting the Saskatchewan economy today” and urged the federal government to address it. While Carney has met with the Chinese premier, there has been no movement on the tariff front.

Also standing pat is assessments of Moe in Saskatchewan, where half (49%) approve of the premier’s performance:

Falling down the charts – Eby, Ford, Legault

After enjoying the boost in popularity that many premiers received during the highest tension-points of the Trump tariff saga (which continues to loom and vacillate), B.C.’s David Eby is back to the approval level he has held for the better party of two and a half years. Approaching half (46%) approve of the BC NDP leader, a seven-point decline compared to March.

Eby has faced criticism from some in the province over two bills aimed at speeding up major projects in the province. Bill 14 – designed to streamline clean energy project permitting – and Bill 15 – which seeks to fast-track projects deemed in the public interest – were both passed earlier this spring and received backlash from Indigenous groups, environmental groups, and some B.C. municipalities, which claim that the government is bypassing important consultations. Eby and government officials maintain that these bills and the discussions surrounding them represent a “fork in the road between court and litigation and fighting, and between co-operation and shared prosperity.”

Another issue that will be notable to follow is a decision by BC Ferries to choose a state-run Chinese company to build four new vessels. This has sparked criticism in recent days:

Another provincial leader settling back into a more recognizable place in public opinion is Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who saw a 14-point boost in March as a figure leading much of the pushback to President Trump and now endures a 10-point drop to 38 per cent. Ford has consistently been closer to the bottom of the premier rankings than the top during his tenure.

While the Trump issues has faded into a secondary suite of priorities for Canadians, Ford has been under fire for the passing of Bill 5, a law that would create special “economic zones” that are free of normal provincial regulations. Much of the opposition to Ford has been from the same groups criticizing B.C.’s Eby, including Indigenous and environmental groups, and the opposition.

For the first time since 1995, Standard & Poor (S&P) downgraded Quebec’s credit rating in April, citing concerns over persistent deficits and lower government revenues. This could increase the cost of the province servicing debt, already projected to cost $10 billion this fiscal year as Quebec deals with a record deficit. Premier François Legault took “full responsibility” but argued his government’s spending decisions have been justified.

The fiscal body blow from S&P came as Legault is under continued assault from all sides. Opposition parties continue to pressure the government over the SAAQcliq scandal. A resurgent Parti Québécois has led critics to question Legault’s nationalist credentials. Legault’s government has entered into a fight with he province’s doctors as it looks to reform their pay structure. And the $270 million the province invested in an electric battery plant has now been declared worthless after the bankruptcy of the plant owner’s parent company.

All this adds up to a new low for Legault, with only one-quarter (25%) of Quebecers saying they approve of his performance.

Jury’s still out – Hogan

The newest premier of the bunch is Newfoundland and Labrador’s John Hogan, who was sworn in to the position on May 9 after former Premier Andrew Furey resigned. Hogan remains unknown to 35 per cent of the population and is approved of by 39 per cent.

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from June 2 – 8, 2025, among a randomized sample of 4,067 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.