Most voters aren’t in love with their choice – three-in-five say they ‘dislike the other options more’
February 3, 2025 – Ontario Premier and Progressive Conservative Party leader Doug Ford has become a regular fixture on national television at the head of Canada’s response to American tariffs. The threat of President Donald Trump also provided the fuel for Ford’s justification to bring the province into an early election campaign.
But threats from Trump, and Ford’s response to them, has done little to warm Ontarians to the premier after years of chilly assessments.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that Ford’s personal unpopularity continues to have little impact on Ontarian vote intentions. If an election were held today, more than two-in-five (43%) say they would support Ford’s party, while the Ontario Liberals (26%) and Ontario NDP (21%) fight for second place.
Ford is viewed the most negatively of the major party leaders (-27 net approval), who are contending with relatively low profiles. At least three-in-10 say they don’t know enough about Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie (28%), NDP leader Marit Stiles (30%) or returning Green leader Mike Shreiner (37%) to say if they have a negative or positive impression. Both Stiles (-2 net favourability) and Crombie (-9) are also wrestling with more unfavourable views than favourable ones of those who offer an opinion.
Altogether, voters appear disenchanted with their options in what might be a sequel Battle of the Bleah. Three-in-five (59%) say they’re supporting who they are now because they don’t like the other options on the ballot, while two-in-five (41%) say they “really like the party” they’ve chosen and what it stands for.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
- Leadership – Ford’s approval still low
- Vote intention
- By region
- By age and gender
- Vote retention
- Voters who ‘really like’ what their party stands for are in the minority
Leadership – Ford’s approval still low
The national response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods has been anything but coordinated. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation, the House of Commons has been prorogued, and the governing Liberals have had their attention divided between day-to-day governance and a leadership race to choose Trudeau’s successor. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has gladly stepped into that “leadership vacuum”, popularizing a slogan response to Trump’s threats.
Related:
- Ford & Smith’s contrasting messages on Trump’s threatened tariffs reflect regional divisions
- Most ‘bring back parliament’ – but do they want to deal with Trump or to trigger an election?
In fact, Trump’s tariffs threats have formed the foundation of Ford’s justification for calling a provincial election nearly 18 months ahead of schedule. “To protect Ontario, I’m asking the people for a strong mandate — a strong, stable, four-year mandate that will outlive and outlast the Trump administration,” Ford wrote in an op-ed in the National Post. “President Trump needs to know that for as long as he is president, I will be on the other side of the table ready to protect Ontario.”
While his “Canada’s Not For Sale” hats may be a hot commodity, Ford’s star turn in the Canada-U.S. saga has done nothing to improve the high negativity expressed by Ontarians towards him. One-third (32%) of Ontarians say they approve of Ford’s performance in the premier’s office, similar to figures seen throughout the past two years since the last election:
Appraisal of Ford is also more negative than the other leaders vying to dethrone the two-time premier. However, assessments of Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and NDP leader Marit Stiles are also more negative than positive. Green leader Mike Shreiner, the only major opposition party leader who survived the 2022 election, performs best by this metric, with as many saying they have a favourable view of him as not.
There is perhaps room for improvement for Stiles, Crombie and Shreiner, as at least three-in-ten Ontarians (Crombie, 28%; Stiles, 30%; Shreiner, 37%) say they do not know enough to view them positively or negatively.
Women are more negative than men on Ford, but all demographics are more likely to disapprove of his performance than approve. Ford’s advantage is that he is viewed less negatively than his peers among men older than 34:
Vote intention
Ford’s unpopularity has done little to impact his party’s electoral fortunes over the years since the last election. Currently more than two-in-five (43%) Ontarian voters would support the Progressive Party of Ontario if the election were held today, putting the incumbents well ahead of the Liberals (26%) and NDP (21%). The Greens captures five per cent of vote intention.
Despite the NDP capturing nearly four-times as many seats as the Liberals in 2022, the two parties were virtually tied in vote intention that election. In the years since, the two left-of-centre options have done little to separate themselves from each other as they’ve been locked in a duel for second place:
By region
The Ontario Liberals perform best in Toronto, where one-third in the inner 416 (34%) and outer 905 ring (36%) say they would vote for Crombie and the Liberals if the election were today. In the Southwest are of the province, the NDP performs better, topping out with 29 per cent of the vote in the Hamilton-Niagara region.
But across the board, the PCs capture the plurality of vote intention in all regions except downtown Toronto:
By age and gender
The strongest base of support for Ford and the PCPO is among men older than 34, a majority of whom would vote for the incumbent party if the election were today. The Ontario NDP enjoy more support among younger Ontarians, especially women, than those older than 34. The Ontario Liberals have a broad base of support, but are not the plurality choice of any demographic:
Vote retention
More than four-in-five (82%) of those who voted PCPO in 2022 say they will be doing so again. The Ontario NDP (64%) and Ontario Liberals (62%) both struggle to attain the same level of vote retention, losing solid chunks to the other left-of-centre party. This perhaps provide evidence that left-of-centre voters aren’t sure where they want to vote if they don’t want to vote for the governing PCPO as both Crombie and Stiles make their case to be alternative:
Voters who ‘really like’ what their party stands for are in the minority
Overall, voters don’t appear to be particularly enamored with their choices. Two-in-five (41%) say they are making their choice currently because they “really like that party and what it stands for.” They are outnumbered by the three-in-five (59%) who instead say they “dislike the other options” more.
Even among those who intend to vote for the incumbents, most (59%) say they’re doing so because there is not an alternative that speaks to them.
Comparatively, during last year’s B.C. election, half (51%) said they liked their choice and what it stood for.
METHODOLOGY
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Jan. 30 to Feb. 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 1,760 Ontarian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For full release including methodology, click here.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org