Three-in-ten Canadians say the air war over Iran will improve the lives of Iranians
March 3, 2026 – As the US-Israeli led air strikes on Iran continue into their fifth day, the coordinated attacks have drawn the involvement of other Middle Eastern and European nations.
Canadians – per Prime Minister Mark Carney – will not be getting involved. This does little, however, to allay early concerns about the impacts this war will have.
New polling from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows there is little consensus about whether this path taken by Israel and the U.S. was the right one.
Half of Canadians oppose the air strikes (49%) while one-in-three (34%) are supportive.
There are clear demographics and politics driving these opinions.
Half of men (50%) support the military action named “Operation Epic Fury”, while 20 per cent of women say the same. Two-thirds of past Conservative voters (64%) back the air strikes, compared to just 17 per cent of past Liberals.
Canadians appear collectively unsure of what the war will do for the people living in Iran. Three-in-10 (28%) say this will mean a better life for Iranians in the future, while close to the same number (34%) say it will mean a worsening. Others are unsure (18%) or don’t expect the war to make a difference long-term (19%).
Potential destabilization also looms as a concern. Approaching half say that the world (47%) and the United States itself (46%) are now less safe due to these military actions. Around half as many feel the world will be safer (27%), while fewer feel this way about the U.S. (17%)
INDEX
- Opposition, but little consensus, emerges with respect to Iran war
- Will life in Iran improve or worsen?
- More say conflict will worsen, not improve, global safety
- Few expect the war to be over within a month
- Gender and political divides
Opposition, but no consensus, emerges with respect to Iran war
Prime Minister Mark Carney offered quick support for the United States’ and Israel’s military strikes in Iran on February 28. Carney has faced some criticism in the wake of his initial comments, with former Liberal foreign affairs minister Lloyd Axworthy noting the trend of force continuing to emerge from President Trump’s White House, and Canada’s (now largely lauded) decision to not support the Iraq War in 2003. Many have pointed out that the strikes likely violate international law.
Many Canadians agree with Carney’s support, though they tend not to be those who voted for his party (see gender and political divides section). Overall, 34 per cent say they support the air strikes, while half of the country disagree (49%). A significant group of 17 per cent have yet to form a position:
Will life in Iran improve or worsen?
While there are myriad factors to consider in the unfolding war, paramount are the conditions of Iranians living in their country. Sweeping protests began the year in most of the nation, with thousands (some estimates say tens of thousands) killed in government crackdowns. Iranians have faced decades of oppression under the theocratic dictatorship of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in initial strikes. Soaring inflation, water shortages, electricity cuts and other challenges exacerbated this in 2025, culminated in massive demonstrations.
Asked how they feel this war will impact the future or Iran, Canadian opinions scatter all over the spectrum of perspectives. One-in-five say little will change. One-in-five aren’t sure. Three-in-10 say conditions will improve, while slightly more say this will only make things worse.
More say conflict will worsen, not improve, global safety
Debate continues to swirl about who led in pushing for these attacks, with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman both reportedly urging President Trump to take action. Trump now claims that he was the one who pushed Israel to action, directly contradicting Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Whoever ultimately made the decision, Canadians are concerned about the forthcoming implications for global security and safety. The largest group say that Israel, the U.S. and the world are all less safe now because of the escalation:
Few expect the war to be over within a month
“”Four to five weeks”
“As long as it takes”
“Whatever the time is, it’s OK”
President Trump made each of the above statements about how long he expects the war with Iran to last, leading many to question if there is, indeed, a plan beyond the initial strikes. President Netanyahu noted that it may “take some time” but he does not expect the conflict to last years. Democrats have also criticized the unilateral nature of the decision and the lack of intelligence evidence to suggest it was needed at this time.
Protracted wars were a huge source of criticism from Trump in the years leading up to this, and the political risk will be weighty with midterms coming later this year. For their part, few Canadians see this conflict ending quickly. One-in-10 (9%) say that this will be over in a month or so, while the largest group would extend that timeline to six months. Three-in-10 say the conflict will extend past one year:
Gender and political divides
Women are much more likely to oppose the United States and Israel’s military action in Iran than men. A majority of women of all ages say they do not support the air strikes, while approaching half of men of all ages do:
Women’s higher opposition to the air strikes is perhaps driven by a higher belief that these attacks on Iran will make the world less safe. At least half of women of all ages believe the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran will make the world more dangerous. Men are more split as to whether these air strikes will improve safety or not.
Men are also more split as to whether this air strike campaign will improve safety in the U.S. and Israel; women are more likely to believe it will increase danger in both those countries (see detailed tables).
The United States and Israel’s attack on Iran is viewed differently depending on one’s political lens. Those who voted Conservative in last year’s election are much more supportive of the air strikes (64%) than those who voted Liberal (17%). One Liberal caucus member called out Carney’s endorsement of the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, saying that “All states have an obligation to protect civilian life, and no state has the right to wage aggressive war.”
Along political lines, as along the gender divide, views of whether or not the U.S. and Israel campaign against Iran will improve safety also appears to be driving support of the military action. Half (51%) of 2025 Conservatives believe these military actions will lead to a safer world, while more than three-in-five 2025 Liberals disagree:
METHODOLOGY
| The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 2-3, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,218 Canadian adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel developed to include Canadian residents in each of the 343 federal ridings in Canada and representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For more information on our polling methods, click here. |
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org