Top reasons for not committing – keep open mind (46%), wait for debates (21%), may vote strategically (21%)
April 17, 2025 – One federal leaders’ debate down, one to go, as voters consider all the factors that could potentially lock them into their party choice.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds many supporters of the Liberals continue to be reticent to fully commit, leaving the party with an impressive ceiling and a precarious floor.
Currently, 37 per cent of Liberal Party voters are less than “very committed” to their vote. They fall into less concrete descriptions of “fairly” committed, “not that committed” or “not committed at all”. Among the Conservatives, this proportion is 24 per cent. The difference in which party forms government and whether it is a majority or minority likely rests on these individuals’ shoulders.
So, what are they waiting for?
Approximately half of each group of Liberal and CPC voters say they’re keeping an open mind as the campaign plays out to see developments and policy details. One-quarter within each group say they want to see what happens in the debate, while others are waiting to see if they feel the need to vote strategically or want to learn more about their local candidates.
The biggest beneficiary of a Liberal lapse would be the NDP. Among uncommitted Liberal voters, 45 per cent say the NDP would be their second choice. One-in-five (18%) say their second choice is the Conservative Party. For the Conservatives, any faltering that causes uncommitted voters to leave would be devastating. The largest group of these soft voters (39%) say they would vote for the Liberals if they changed their mind.
With a foursome of party leaders set to square off in tonight’s English debate, most Canadians will likely find themselves disappointed on the list of topics set to be discussed – notably the omission of health care. It remains a top issue facing the country for Canadians and two-thirds (68%) believe health care is not being brought up enough on the campaign trail. A majority (53%) also say that the high cost of living is not getting its fair share of discussion. Three-in-ten (31%) would like to hear less from candidates about U.S. tariffs, but half (51%) believe it is being talked about “the right amount”.
More Key Findings:
- Majorities of Uncommitted party supporters (CPC 73%, Liberal 77%) and undecided voters (83%) say health care is not being discussed enough by candidates and parties during the election.
- Liberal supporters, both locked in and open to changing their mind, are more likely to believe the threat of Trump’s annexation has grown in the past two months. These data were taken prior to this week’s statement from the White House press secretary confirming U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on making Canada the 51st state was unchanged.
- Half (51%) of Canadians believe the potential for economic harm from Trump’s tariffs has become more of a threat in the past two months. That includes three-in-five (61%) Uncommitted Liberal supporters and two-in-five (42%) Uncommitted CPC supporters. Locked in CPC voters are less likely to view the threat as having increased (26%).
INDEX
Part One: Uncommitted Conservative and Liberal voters
- Liberal vote commitment lags CPC
- Who did they vote for in 2021?
- One-quarter of Uncommitted Liberals considering strategic voting
- What if Uncommitted Liberal and CPC voters went with their second choice?
Part Two: Party leader perspectives
- One-quarter would prefer a different party leader if they listened to their gut
Part Three: Which issues do voters want to hear more about?
- Canadians say threat of U.S. annexation has lessened, but worry over tariffs
- The Trump factor still looms for Uncommitted Liberals
- Majority believe parties need to talk more about cost of living, health care
- Undecideds, uncommitted Liberals and CPC want to hear more about health care
Part One: Uncommitted Conservative and Liberal voters
With less than two weeks until federal Election Day, the contending parties will be focused on swaying moveable voters and locking those in who prefer them but just aren’t quite ready to commit. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have large portions of their current voter pool who could still be scared off or locked in.
Liberal vote commitment lags CPC
On Monday, Angus Reid Institute found 45 per cent of Canadian voters saying they will support the Liberals, and 39 per cent saying this of the Conservatives. That said, these two leading parties’ voter bases offer varying levels of commitment, as seen in the graph below.
Currently, the CPC are supported by 39 per cent of Canadian voters, and the Liberals by 45 per cent. With one-quarter of CPC voters and 36 per cent of Liberal voters Uncommitted, they both end up with similar sized bases of firm support – about 29 per cent, as seen in the graph below:
Who did they vote for in 2021?
Just half of soft-Liberals voted for the party in 2021 (53%), compared to seven-in-10 soft-Conservatives saying the same of that party (69%). One-quarter of these Liberal voters supported the NDP, while 13 per cent supported the CPC.
One-quarter of Uncommitted Liberals considering strategic voting
Asked what it is that will make them lock in their vote, many say they want to keep their options open as more policies are rolled out (46%) while one-in-five say they want to see the debates (21%), figure out if they want to vote strategically (21%), or learn more about the candidates in their riding (18%). Notably, 27 per cent of Uncommitted Liberals say this latter reasoning is preventing them from offering full commitment:
What if Uncommitted Liberal and CPC voters went with their second choice?
The biggest concern for the Liberal Party as it holds on to a comfortable though seemingly precarious lead, is “what happens if soft voters support their second choice”. For the Liberals, nearly half of their Uncommitted Vote is made up of those who would support the NDP on second choice, though it’s worth noting that one-in-five (18%) are at risk of defecting to the CPC, which would represent for the party’s fortunes an equally devastating outcome. For the CPC, a similar factor is at play, as two-in-five (39%) Uncommitted Conservatives say they would likely support the Liberals if they decided to depart.
In the ever-so-unlikely event – but nonetheless interesting thought experiment – that all Uncommitted voters were pushed to their secondary option, this 2025 election would look an awful lot like the 2019 and 2021 contests, where the CPC won the popular vote by a slim margin, but the Liberals formed a minority government. The biggest beneficiary in this case would be the NDP, which would double its vote share on the strength of defecting soft-Liberals:
In the more plausible scenario that half of these voters decide to back away from their initial choice and support their second, the Liberals would hold an advantage of approximately two or three percentage points. The NDP would avoid the catastrophe of single digits, but would still lose a significant portion of its 2021 vote:
Part Two: Party leader perspectives
Pollsters and pundits won’t know just how many of these Canadians will change their minds until the election results have poured in, but there are a number of indicators that can help us understand the perspectives of those not yet locked in.
One-quarter would prefer a different party leader if they listened to their gut
The biggest risk to the Liberals, as noted in the second-choice vote section above, is the NDP. Consider that one-quarter of Uncommitted Liberals say that they are most attracted to Jagmeet Singh among the three main federal leaders. Almost none are attracted to Poilievre on this measure, while seven-in-10 (72%) prefer Carney most. Among Uncommitted Conservatives, a similar number say their own party leader would be their gut choice, though 15 per cent say Carney is their preference on this measure:
Notably, thinking about voting in the more practical manner with their reason, Carney appears to gain. Nine-in-10 would-be Liberals (89%) choose him, as well as one-in-five (18%) would-be Conservatives:
Another key measure is “best Prime Minister”. Four-in-five soft Liberals say Carney is the best of the two leaders for the job, while soft Conservatives are much more ambivalent. Half (53%) choose Poilievre, while 26 per cent say neither and 12 per cent do not know:
Part Three: Which issues do voters want to hear more about?
Canadians say threat of U.S. annexation has lessened, but worry over tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric over making Canada the 51st state of the U.S.A. had cooled in recent weeks. But the issue was reignited this week when the White House press secretary rejected that the president’s position had changed in response to a reporter’s question. “The president still maintains his position on Canada: The United States has been subsidizing Canada’s national defence, and he believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America.”
In data taken prior to that comment, two-in-five (38%) Canadians believed there was less of a threat of annexation from Trump than there was two months ago. One-third (34%) believed the threat was about the same, while one-quarter (25%) believe the threat had intensified.
What apparently has become a more glaring issue to Canadians is the threat of economic damage from Trump’s tariffs. Half (51%) say it is more of a threat now than it was two months ago. Previous ARI data showed that nine-in-ten (91%) Canadians were concerned with the possibility of recession in the next year, while four-in-five (83%) worried over harm to their household financial situation.
Related: Amid tariff-related chaos, nine-in-10 Canadians concerned about domestic recession in next year
The Trump factor still looms for Uncommitted Liberals
Even prior to the White House’s latest comments on annexation, Canadians did not perceive the threat of Trump’s 51st state ambitions evenly. Current Liberal supporters are more likely to view annexation as more of a threat than it was two months ago, while likely Conservative voters are more likely to view it as less of one.
Throughout the election, Carney and the Liberals have been viewed by most Canadians as the best choice to deal with Trump and U.S. relations amid this trade war. Whether the tariffs and annexation talk dissipates or intensifies appears to be key for the Liberals and their current lead in vote intention.
Notably, current undecided voters lean towards believing the 51st state threat has lessened in recent months, but one-quarter (25%) worry the threat has increased:
There are also different perspectives on the threat of economic damage from tariffs across political boundaries. Majorities of Liberal supporters believe the potential of harm to Canada’s economy from tariffs is more of a threat now than it was two months ago. They are also joined in this view by a majority (56%) of undecided voters and two-in-five (42%) of those who are currently supporting the CPC but are open to changing their mind.
Very Committed CPC voters are the least likely to view an increase in the threat of economic harm from tariffs:
Majority believe parties need to talk more about cost of living, health care
The issue of tariffs and the threat posed by Trump has taken up a significant amount of airspace during this campaign. But it is not the only issue on voters’ minds and in fact has fallen behind cost of living throughout the campaign and, in recent weeks, health care.
Related: Top issue shift
The latter two issues have not been paid enough attention by parties and candidates according to a majority of Canadians. There are also more than two-in-five Canadians who believe climate change (45%) and housing affordability (45%) should be discussed more on the campaign trail, though the latter has certainly seen its share of promises from the parties designed to address it.
Three-in-ten (31%) believe the issues between Canada and the U.S. have taken up too much oxygen during the election, but that is a minority view. Half (51%) believe it has been discussed the right amount:
Undecideds, uncommitted Liberals and CPC want to hear more about health care
Those who have yet to lock in their vote will have more food for thought after this week’s debates. But they will likely be disappointed that health care will not be part of the meal. The topics for Thursday’s English debate include affordability, energy and climate, “leading in a crisis”, public safety, and “tariffs and threats to Canada”.
A majority of Uncommitted supporters of the Liberals and CPC, and undecided voters, say health care has not been discussed enough. However, they will at least be pleased that cost of living makes the cut:
METHODOLOGY:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 10-13, 2025, among a randomized sample of 2,216 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For PDF of full release, click here.
For questionnaire, click here.
MEDIA CONTACT:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org
