New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds three-in-five Canadians (62%) now approve of Carney's performance, up 11 points from August and approaching his previous high-water mark. The rise comes after three-quarters of Canadians said last month that Carney was right to walk away from negotiations in the face of new U.S. demands. Despite this renewed support for the prime minister, Canadians are divided over Canada's bargaining power. Three-in-10 (31%) say the country is in a strong negotiating position, while 34 per cent say it is a weak one. One-in-five (22%) see the two countries as evenly matched.
Uncertainty over Canada's position, however, has done little to soften public appetite for a harder line. Nearly three-quarters (73%) say Canada should refuse difficult concessions even if it means worsening trade relations with the United States – the highest level measured by ARI since the dispute began. Majorities also oppose further concessions on U.S. dairy access, while more Canadians say Ottawa should insist on the complete removal of tariffs on Canadian vehicles than would accept a deal that merely reduces them.
Carney's Approval
Negotiating Position
Hard Line Preferred
Alcohol & Dairy
Cars & Economic Pain
Return to the Table
Methodology
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Carney's Approval
Carney sees significant approval boost after Canada walks away from talks
After trade negotiations fell apart in August, Canada and the U.S. are locked into a climbing elevator of a trade conflict. In rapid reaction data released after talks fell apart, three-quarters of Canadians said Carney's decision to walk away from talks due to last-minute U.S. demands was the right call.
New data from ARI shows that Carney's refusal to kowtow to the U.S. in the previous round of negotiations has improved his standing among Canadians. Three-in-five (62%) say they approve of the prime minister's performance, a figure which approaches Carney's record high of 63 per cent, seen earlier this year in the wake of his widely well-received speech in Davos. Carney enjoys majority approval in every province in the country except Saskatchewan.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,498 Canadian adults.
Negotiating Position
Canadians do not see their negotiating position as very strong
There is much apprehension among Canadians in the latest chapter of the trade war with the United States. Equal sized groups believe the country's negotiating position is strong (31%) as weak (34%). One-in-five (22%) say the U.S. and Canada are on even footing.
Politics is a strong delineator when it comes to assessments of the trade war. Three-in-five of those who voted CPC in 2025 say the U.S. has the upper hand; half of past Liberal voters (50%) disagree.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
Hard Line Preferred
A hard approach is still vastly preferred to concessions
Regardless of relative strength, there is a growing appetite among Canadians for their country to dig in. Three-quarters (73%) say Canada should refuse difficult concessions even if it means a further deterioration in the relationship with the United States; one-quarter (27%) prefer Canada soften its stance. This is the largest proportion of Canadians who have wanted a "hard" approach since the trade war began.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
There is a majority in every province who want Canada to stand strong and refuse concessions. Past Conservative voters are evenly divided between a soft (49%) and hard (51%) approach; there is little appetite for concessions among past Liberal (8%), NDP (12%) or Bloc Québécois (18%) voters.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
Alcohol & Dairy
Little appetite for concessions on alcohol or dairy access
The ban of U.S. alcohol sales in some provinces has remained an irritant for American trade negotiators and might have been a concession made by Canada if not for the dissolution of negotiations. Carney reportedly told the country's premiers to put American alcohol back on the shelves when he briefed them mid-negotiation. The move would have been unpopular: only one-third (36%) say they support their province selling U.S. alcohol.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
Canada's supply management system has long been a source of ire for Trump, who claimed prior to negotiations breaking down that tariffs on American farm goods were "going to be eviscerated down to zero." Canadians oppose softening the rules on American dairy any further by a two-to-one margin.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
Cars & Economic Pain
A plurality want tariffs on Canadian cars removed entirely
In the previous round of negotiations, tariffs on Canadian vehicles were set to fall to 15 per cent, although which categories of autos would get relief was apparently a point of contention. A plurality (43%) of Canadians say Canada should only accept a trade agreement which entirely removes tariffs on Canadian cars, outnumbering those who believe a deal would be acceptable even if it only reduced them (31%).
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
The sizable desire for Canada to go to the trenches in the trade war is matched by a willingness to endure some personal economic pain. Three-in-five (60%) are willing to stay the course even if household expenses increase by 20 per cent, and half would hold the line through a recession or the closure of local small businesses. The desire to keep fighting shrinks, but is still at a plurality level, even if major factories leave the country or Canadians personally lose their job.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
Return to the Table
Most wouldn't go back to the table until at least post-midterms
Carney said Canada is ready to sit down to continue negotiations "when the Americans are ready." However, there is a coming political inflexion point which may improve Canada's position: the U.S. midterm elections, which could work against the Republicans and put pressure on the president.
A plurality of Canadians say their country should wait until after the midterms to resume negotiations. One-quarter (26%), including half of past Conservative voters, would prefer talks restarted right away. Fewer than one-in-five (18%) would wait much longer than November, including a group of one-in-eight (13%) who believe Canada should wait until after Trump is scheduled to leave office in 2029.
Angus Reid Institute, online survey, September 3–4, 2026, n=1,495 Canadian adults.
About this survey
Methodology and downloads
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from September 3–4, 2026, among a randomized sample of 1,498 Canadian adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, a large-scale online panel developed to include Canadian residents in each of the 343 federal ridings in Canada and representative of the Canadian population by age, gender, family income, ethnic status and education. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
