Centre-left support for carbon tax still strong as concern over climate change declines from four years ago -

Fewer Canadians view climate change as ‘serious’ threat or call it a ‘crisis’

February 28, 2025 – The federal Liberal government’s consumer carbon tax seems destined to be axed, whether by the Conservatives or by whomever replaces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

This re-evaluation of federal climate policy comes as new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Canadians’ urgency to deal with the climate emergency, as declared in 2019, has declined. While approaching two-thirds (63%) of Canadians say climate change is a fact and it is human caused, that majority is smaller than the one seen in 2021 (71%). At the same time, Canadians who believe climate change is a “very serious” threat to the Earth has dropped by eight points from 50 to 42 per cent.

This decline in concern over climate change is seen across the political spectrum. Those who last voted for the Conservatives (-9 points), Liberals (-12), NDP (-6) and Bloc Québécois (-13) are all less likely to describe climate change as a “very serious threat” than they were four years ago.

However, only past Conservative voters describe it as a “minor” or “not a” threat at a majority level (57%).

This comes as the Liberals’ signature climate policy, the carbon tax, looks likely to be a thing of the past after the next federal election as both leading leadership candidates, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, have said they plan to abandon the consumer side of the policy if they win the Liberal leadership race. As the party that instituted it changes tact, Canadians’ opinions on the carbon tax itself have shifted little from the fall; more than two-in-five (45%) want the carbon tax abolished, but the rest would keep it either at a lower rate (15%), maintained at the current level (27%) or increasing, as planned (15%).

More Key Findings:

A majority of Canadians (56%) say society should be responding to climate change as a “crisis” that requires urgent action. But that represents a 10 per cent decline (63% to 56%) in the proportion who believed the same in 2023.

One-in-five (19%) of those who would support the Liberals in the scenario Carney wins the leadership race say the carbon tax should be abolished. One-in-six (15%) who would support the Liberals if Freeland won say the same. The latter group of Liberals is more likely (24% vs. 20%) to want the carbon tax to continue increasing as planned.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Belief in human caused climate change has dropped since 2021 peak
Seven-in-10 still say it’s a serious threat
Carbon tax views – how do they inform the Liberal race?

Belief in human caused climate change has dropped since 2021 peak

Canada is still being rattled by the reverberations of the return of President Donald Trump. His impact is being felt on numerous fronts but especially economically as Canadians process the domestic ramifications of a tariff-walled U.S., previously Canada’s largest and most important trading partner. Previously, the Angus Reid Institute reported that Trump’s return has affected Canadians’ calculus when it comes to energy development. The proportion of Canadians who prefer energy policy focus on “creating economic growth” had nearly doubled from 23 per cent 18 months ago to 43 per cent now. There had also been a 13-point drop in the percentage of Canadians who believed the most important aspect of energy policy should be “reducing carbon emissions”, previously the highest ranked choice.

Previously in ARI’s Climate and Energy Policy Series:

While clearly environmental concerns have faded behind economic ones in the face of both an existential threat to Canada’s economy and in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis brought on by several years of high inflation, are Canadians less concerned about greenhouse gas emissions, and human-caused climate change, than they previously were?

Overall, there are fewer Canadians who assert that climate change is both a fact and human-caused than in 2021. That year, British Columbia experienced a climate change-fueled heat dome which drove a devastating wild fire season that included the destruction of the town of Lytton. Air quality in Canada’s cities that summer were among the worst in the world as smoke blew across the country.

In the fall of 2021, belief in human-caused climate change peaked among Canadians at 71 per cent. Since then, it has declined eight points to 63 per cent, while those who believe climate change is instead caused by natural cycles has risen by four points to 23 per cent and those who say climate change is an unproven theory has risen by three points to nine per cent. This represents a retreat in belief to levels seen in 2009 and 2014.

Meanwhile, there is a near unanimous scientific consensus that climate change is a fact and is caused by humans.

The Angus Reid Institute developed an Energy Perspectives Index using respondents’ answers to questions about expanding various energy sources, as well as statements about Canada’s future energy priorities. This identified a spectrum of Canadian views on energy development, with Carbon Keepers (19% of Canadians) desiring further hydrocarbon expansion and forgoing renewables at one end and those who want to Keep in the Ground (18%), or focus on renewable development while halting future hydrocarbon expansion, on the other. Three-in-five Canadians are in between these two groups, while leaning one way or the other – one-third (33%) are Renewable Skeptics and three-in-ten (30%) lean towards Reduce and Transition when it comes to hydrocarbon energy sources.

The Carbon Keepers are the most likely to say climate change is an unproven theory, which perhaps informs their perspective when it comes to future energy development. Most Renewable Skeptics believe climate change is happening, and lean towards attributing it to human activities, but a sizable portion of them say climate change is part of a natural cycle. Nearly all in the Reduce and Transition and Keep in the Ground categories believe humans are the primary cause of the changing climate:

Seven-in-10 still say it’s a serious threat

Despite shifting priorities when it comes to energy development as laid out above, the majority (69%) opinion among Canadians is that climate change is a serious threat. However, that majority was larger (75%) four years ago. Since the destructive wildfire season in 2021, there have been a record-setting fire season in 2023 followed by a damaging one that burned through the town of Jasper, Alta. in 2024. A study in Science found that the Canadian forests are increasingly vulnerable to fire because of climate change. However, despite these seemingly annual reminders of the threat of climate change, the proportion of Canadians who describe the threat posed by climate change as “very serious” has declined eight points from 2021:

Views on the threat of climate change appear to be related to views on energy policy development. Half (50%) of Carbon Keepers describe climate change as “not really a threat at all”, while 90 per cent of those who would keep hydrocarbons in the ground describe it as “a very serious threat”. Carbon Keepers also stand out as the only group on the Energy Perspectives Index for whom a majority do not describe the threat posed by climate change as at least “serious”:

Not only are Canadians overall less likely to describe the threat of climate change as “very serious”, but this downward trend is also observable across political lines. Comparing views from voters of the four major Canadian political parties from November 2021 to now illustrates that not only are those who voted Conservative in the last federal election less likely to believe climate change is a “very serious threat” than they were more than three years ago (-9 points), but that view has also declined among Liberal voters (-12 points), NDP voters (-6 points) and Bloc Québécois voters (-13 points):

The declining sense of urgency among Canadians is also evident when respondents are asked how society should respond to climate change. While a majority (56%) say climate is a crisis and the world needs to act quickly to address it, that majority is smaller than it was in 2023. Since then, minorities who believe “we have plenty of time to fix it” (+4 points) and nothing needs to be done (+3) have grown:

Carbon tax views – how do they inform the Liberal race?

The federal Liberal government’s signature policy to fight climate change – the carbon tax – has been under intense scrutiny during the post-pandemic cost-of-living crisis. Prior to the worst inflation Canada had seen in nearly 40 years, support was at a majority level (56%) in 2021. It has declined to 45 per cent since then. However, there is a sharp political divide on the policy – few past Conservative voters support the policy, while it is still popular amongst past voters of the other three major political parties:

Views of the carbon tax become clearer when respondents are asked how they would approach it. While more than two-in-five (45%) would abolish it, there are one-in-six (15%) who would keep but would lower it, while two-in-five (40%) would either maintain it at the current level (26%) or increase it (15%) as it is scheduled to do until 2030.

The proportion who would abolish it has increased, but only slightly from the fall (+3 points):

Cost of living still leads the way among Canadians’ top issues despite inflation abating in recent months. Perhaps in a nod to these affordability concerns, the two Liberal leadership race front-runners, former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, have said they would remove the consumer portion of the carbon tax. “Axe the tax” has long been the centre piece of the Conservatives’ pre-campaign to the next federal election, which they had previously billed as the “carbon tax” election.

Among current party supporters, four-in-five (80%) of those who would vote Conservative if the election were today say they want the carbon tax abolished.

Those who would support the Liberals under Freeland in the scenario she wins the leadership are more likely to want to increase it as planned (24%) than those who would support the Liberals under Carney (20%). Carney Liberals are more likely to want it abolished (19% vs. 15%):

Survey Methodology

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Jan. 24-27, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,012 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For full release including methodology, click here.

For the questionnaire, click here.

MEDIA CONTACT:

Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl

Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org