Election 2025: Incumbent lead holds as CPC edge among men dwarfed by Liberal advantage among women

CPC leads by two points among men, Liberals lead by 19 points among women

March 31, 2025 – In a campaign that has been remarkable for its volatility and dynamism, a new element enters the race: relative stability.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds voter intention unchanged over the last week, with the Liberal Party holding an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, while the fortunes of the NDP and Bloc remain similarly unchanged.

Asked how they intend to vote, 46 per cent of Canadian voters say they will support the Liberals, compared to 38 per cent for the Conservative Party. Support for the NDP (7%) and Bloc Québécois (7%) continues to linger in single digits.

Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to maintain an advantage among most demographic groups. Men aged 35- to 54-years-old are the only age-gender segment to be more likely to vote Conservative. The Liberals otherwise lead between four points (men older than 55) and 27 points (women older than 55).

Further, Carney’s positive net favourability among both men (+18) and women (+26) remains stable. His rivals – Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh – struggle among one gender or the other. For Poilievre, this represents an ongoing inability to build positive impressions among women – three-in-five (61%) who say they view him unfavourably. For Singh, same problem, only among men, who by a two-to-one margin view him more negatively than positively.

The resurgence of the Liberals fueled by Carney’s election to leader is partially driven by women voters returning to the party after abandoning it at the end of 2024, but also by picking up vote intention from men. In March 2021, support for the Liberals among men ranged from 27 per cent among 18- to 34-year-olds, to 30 per cent among men aged 35 to 54. The Carney Liberals currently are receiving support from 45 per cent of 18- to 34-year-old men and 46 per cent of those older than 54.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Part One: Vote intention

• By region

• By age and gender

  • Age and gender trend since 2020

• Commitment

Part Two: Leadership

• Favourability

• Momentum

Part One: Vote intention

The first week of the federal election offered plenty for voters to chew on as they decide how they want to vote over the coming weeks before election day. Both of the parties likely to form government – Conservatives and Liberals – promised tax cuts. The incumbents detailed support it would provide in response to U.S. tariffs, while the challenger Conservatives offered ways to accelerate infrastructure spending and combat fentanyl trafficking with mandatory life sentences.

Perhaps most significantly – with further U.S. tariffs looming on April 2 – Liberal leader and Prime Minister Mark Carney had his first call with U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a much more positive tone than seen in recent weeks and described the conversation as “very productive”. Trump also appeared to be more respectful of Carney, considering Trump called Carney by his official title and not governor, as he did with predecessor Justin Trudeau. Canada’s response to the U.S., and the tact taken by the leader of its future federal government, remains a key issue for the campaign. The Angus Reid Institute will release a report on the top issues defining the campaign so far later this week.

The Liberals have maintained their eight-point lead in vote intention through the first week of the campaign. Support for the Liberals (46%) and Conservatives (38%) is unchanged from a week ago. There also has been no statistically significant movement for the NDP or Bloc Québécois, who both have the support of seven per cent of voters:

By region

The stable picture of the topline numbers mask subtle shifts in regional vote intention. Since the opening of the campaign, the Liberals have put some separation between themselves and the Conservatives in B.C. and Ontario, while the Conservatives have performed best in the prairies. The Liberals lead over both the BQ and CPC has shrunk in Quebec compared to last week, but is still larger than it was prior to the drop of the writs. Last week it was announced that the TVA French language leaders’ debate was cancelled after Carney and the Liberals decided not to take part. There will still be a Radio-Canada debate in French, but the TVA debate is typically the most watched of the debates in Quebec during the campaign and some have wondered whether not participating could cost Carney and the Liberals in the province.

The Liberals national advantage in vote intention could lead to a significant one in seat count if the party continues to dominate the country’s major metro regions as it has so far during the campaign. A majority in Metro Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal say they plan to vote Liberal:

By age and gender

The faceoff between men and women appears to be one of the key factors in this campaign. Among men, each party splits votes close to evenly, with the CPC holding a slight two-point lead. Among women, the Liberals are preferred by a wide margin, generating 51 per cent support to the CPC’s 32 per cent:

The Conservatives hold an advantage over the Liberals among one demographic: men aged 35- to 54-years-old. Otherwise, the Liberals lead among the others varies from four points among men older than 54 to 27 points among women that age:

Age and gender trend since 2020

The Liberal resurgence is built on a number of fronts when it comes to age and gender. Last March, the party was polling at sub-20 percentage points among men younger than 55 and women younger than 35. In the case of both younger men and women, their current vote intention is beyond a doubling of last year’s proportion. Importantly, the Liberals have also strengthened their standing among older men and women alike. Older women had previously been one of the party’s greater strengths.

The Conservative trendline across age and gender is less variable than the Liberals since 2020. Support among men between the ages of 18 and 54 are up compared to the Erin O’Toole era, but the party has lost some support recently among men 55 plus. Poilievre’s party fares better now among 35-to-54-year-old women than it did in 2020 and 201, but has struggled to break a cap hovering around one-in-three across all female agree groups.

The NDP’s loss has been the primary gain for the Liberals. Across all age and gender groups, including previously loyal young women, party support has evaporated.

Commitment

The Conservatives’ base is still the most solid of the major parties, with three-quarters (73%) of current CPC supporters saying they plan to stick with them through election day. A slim majority (54%) of Liberal supporters say the same. The NDP (34%) and the Bloc (33%) have fewer “very committed” supporters:

Notably, the proportion of Liberals who say they are “very committed” to their vote has grown from two-in-five (39%) two weeks ago to 54 per cent now.

Voter commitment to the Bloc Québécois has wavered – from 39 per cent two weeks ago, to 52 per cent last week and to 34 per cent today. Relations with the U.S. has been a top issue in the province so far during the campaign, which might be driving voters towards the Liberals and away from the Quebec-first Bloc.

Part Two: Leadership

Favourability

Carney’s net favourability – the gap between those who view him positively and negatively – continues to grow and stands at +22. He is most popular among Canadians older than 54 (61% favourable) and sees similar levels of positivity from men (55%) and women (57%, see detailed tables).

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre experiences a small bump up in approval from last week – 35 per cent to 37 per cent. But a majority (57%) of Canadians have a negative impression of the Conservative leader:

Poilievre’s issue continues to be generating favourability among women. Since he was elected leader of the Conservative party in September 2022, there has been a significant gender gap in assessments of Poilievre. Men aged 35 to 54 have consistently been the most likely to view him positively (and are also where a significant portion of his vote support comes from, as noted above). Younger men are more critical, while Poilievre’s favourability among women has peaked at one-third – among women aged 35 to 54 only.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has been on a favourability slide for more than three years now. Even when his party was polling at 21 per cent, at the nadir of Liberal support at the end of 2024, a majority of Canadians viewed Singh unfavourably. Currently, one-third (35%) say they have a positive view of Singh while 56 per cent do not. The NDP leader is experiencing the inverse issue of Poilievre – Singh is more popular among women (42% favourable) than men (28%, see detailed tables).

Momentum

Carney continues to generate positive momentum – 44 per cent of Canadians say their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved while 29 per cent say it has worsened. This despite a steady shelling of ads by the Conservatives attacking Carney since Feb. 28.

While one-in-five (18%) say their opinion of Poilievre has improved in the past few weeks, that’s half the number (38%) who say they have a more negative view of the Conservative leader than the did prior to the campaign:

Survey Methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from March 28-31, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,131 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.

For PDF of full release, click here.

For the questionnaire, click here.