BC NDP seen as doing a ‘poor job’ on economy, health care, by majorities of British Columbians
September 5, 2024 – As the dust from recent explosive events in B.C. politics continues to settle, focus is shifting to party policies as British Columbians assess which of the remaining options offer the best plans to deal with the pressing issues facing the province.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds many British Columbians critical of the current BC NDP government, and a strong preference to the challenging BC Conservatives on several key issues.
On the high cost of living (37%) and street crime (41%), the BC Conservatives are the choice as ‘best to lead’ by a plurality, giving them an edge of 10 points and 15 points respectively over the incumbent BC NDP. The BC NDP are slightly preferred over the BC Conservatives on health care (35% to 31%) and the BC Conservatives hold a narrow advantage on housing affordability (34% to 29%). On other key matters, the two parties are in statistical ties.
It is also worth noting there are plenty of people left to be convinced as to who has the best plan. At least one-quarter believe none of the three main political parties and leaders are a solid choice on the top seven issues as chosen by B.C. residents.
The BC NDP government led by Premier David Eby enters the coming campaign period viewed by the majority as performing poorly on the rising cost of living (70%), health care (65%), housing affordability (72%), public safety (67%), drug use (74%) and homelessness (75%). While plenty of this criticism comes from people who are currently supporting opposing parties, many current BC NDP supporters also say improvement is needed from the government. Approaching half (47%) of likely BC NDP voters say the government has performed poorly on cost of living, while majorities believe it has mishandled the files of housing affordability (52%), poverty (57%) and drug use (55%).
Click below to see Key Takeaways from the data
The BC NDP government receives more praise for issues further down residents’ priority list, but on the top issues, residents are critical.
Majorities of those who intend to vote BC NDP in the upcoming election believe the government is currently performing poorly on housing affordability (52%), drug use/addictions (55%), and poverty/homelessness (57%).
More say the BC Conservatives are the best choice to lead the province than the BC NDP when it comes to the high cost of living, housing affordability and public safety.
The BC NDP are more likely to be seen as best to manage health care. For other top issues, the two parties are in a statistical tie.
The Full Story
INDEX
Part One: Top issues
By age and gender
By region
By vote intention
Part Two: Current government performance
On top issues, at least two-thirds believe BC NDP, Eby performing poorly
Criticism for BC NDP government from opposition parties, but also from supporters
Part Three: Who do British Columbians say is best on top issues?
BC Conservatives lead NDP over cost of living, public safety
Men give advantage to BC Conservatives on most issues, women more divided
Regional views
Part One: Top issues
The rosters for the remaining political parties are more or less finalized as British Columbia awaits the writs being dropped later this month for its October election. Although the election campaign itself has not started, British Columbians would not be at fault for feeling like they’ve been in one for months now as the parties attempt to convince them they’re the best choice for dealing with the province’s myriad of issues.
At the forefront for the electorate: the high cost of living, chosen as a top issue by two-thirds (64%), and an ailing health-care system, chosen by half (51%). Housing affordability, chosen by two-in-five (41%) rounds out a top three issues with some separation from other concerns. Trending below those three issues are street crime and public safety (27%), drug use (21%) and poverty and homelessness (20%). Notably, climate change/environment falls outside the top six, selected as a top issue by fewer than one-in-five (18%):
By age and gender
For the parties contesting the election in October, the challenge will be to come up with a compelling plan to address these issues that also appeals across generational and gender lines. The high cost of living ranks high as an issue among all demographics, but there is variability after that. Older British Columbians are much more concerned with the state of health care, while younger ones worry more over a persistent crisis of housing affordability.
Men older than 54 are unique in that they are the most likely to be concerned with British Columbia’s government spending deficit – the province’s credit rating was cut for the third time in three years by S&P Global Ratings earlier this year. Meanwhile, women under 35 are the most concerned with climate change:
Regionally, there is little variation in concerns. From Vancouver to the Interior, to the Island, the top three issues in order are the cost of living, health care and housing affordability (see detailed tables).
By vote intention
As the province is on the cusp of the official election campaign period, there is still time for parties to sway voters from their opponents’ side to theirs. Approaching half (46%) of decided voters describe themselves as “absolutely certain” of who they will vote for in this upcoming election, leaving a sizable portion of the electorate who admit their minds could be changed, including one-in-20 (5%) who say they are “not certain at all” and a further one-in-eight (13%) who say they “could change their mind.”
Current supporters of the BC Greens are much more likely than the likely voters for other parties to be in the latter two categories. They are also the most likely to say they are concerned with climate change, with more than half (53%) selecting it as a top issue. Notably, their issues are aligned with BC NDP supporters, albeit with different levels of priorities.
Those who intend to vote for the BC Conservatives are more concerned about public safety (39%) and the deficit (27%) than the supporters of other parties.
For the undecided, the high cost of living trumps all else (80%), suggesting parties will have to make arguments aimed at the pocketbooks of this group, who represent one-in-nine (11%) voting age British Columbians, a group who could make a big difference in what is currently a tight race.
Part Two: Government performance
BC United’s exit from the campaign simplified the contest in many ways. It is now a two-horse race for government between an incumbent party and premier who have a record of governance to analyze and a challenger providing an alternate path for the province.
On top issues, at least two-thirds believe BC NDP, Eby performing poorly
That there is widespread dissatisfaction from residents in the current state of the province could prove an issue for the incumbent BC NDP and Premier David Eby.
Residents offer more praise, but still plenty of criticism, on issues that are further down their priority list. The government performs best on the issues of education, the province’s relationship with the federal government, and Indigenous issues, files chosen as top concerns by six per cent, one per cent and three per cent of the population, respectively (see detailed tables).
Criticism of the performance of Eby and the BC NDP government comes from all demographics. With the exception of women aged 18-34 – who are the group most likely to say they are “not sure” how the government is performing on these files – more than half of all demographics say the government is doing a poor job on the cost of living, health care, housing affordability, street crime and drug use:
Criticism for BC NDP government from opposition parties, but also from supporters
As one might expect, those who say they are going to vote BC Conservative are the most critical of the current provincial government with approaching nine-in-ten saying it has performed poorly on the top five issues. But those who say they will vote BC NDP are not offering Eby and the government ringing endorsements either. Approaching half (47%) of current BC NDP supporters say the provincial government has performed poorly on cost of living, and more are critical of performance on drug use (55%), poverty (55%) and housing affordability (52%).
The BC Greens are strongest on Vancouver Island, where the BC NDP hold a number of seats but also face a strong challenge from the BC Conservatives. Eby and the BC NDP evidently have an uphill battle to convince BC Greens voters to come to their side, as many are critical of the government’s current performance on their top issues, including the environment. The BC Conservatives ascension to electoral relevance began in 2022, when party leader John Rustad was ejected from the BC Liberals because of comments questioning climate change science. With climate change being a key issue among them, this suggests that BC Greens moving over to the Conservatives may be a bridge too far, but the river between the BC Greens and the BC NDP is also a wide one to cross as more than two-thirds (70%) say the BC NDP haven’t been performing well on climate, either.
The BC NDP also face a challenge among undecideds, who are critical of government performance on their top issues, most notably cost of living, selected as a top issue by 80 per cent of undecided voters as noted above:
Part Three: Who do voters say is best on top issues?
Current government performance is one element in the electorate’s matrix as they decide where to place their vote in October. While there may be plenty of criticism of the current BC NDP government, that may not mean voters are immediately intrigued by the alternatives.
BC Conservatives lead NDP over cost of living, public safety
On each of the issues presented to respondents, the Angus Reid Institute asked a follow-up question to assess who British Columbians think will be best to manage the various concerns. Eby and the NDP are slightly favoured when it comes to health care, but Rustad and the Conservatives are more preferred when it comes to cost of living, housing affordability and public safety. The BC Greens and leader Sonia Furstenau beat out their opposition when it comes to who British Columbians would be best to manage the environment, but that is the only area they lead (see detailed tables).
Men give advantage to BC Conservatives on most issues, women more divided
To assess how British Columbians view the two parties fielding near full slates of candidates on the top issues, ARI decided to compare the BC NDP and BC Conservatives head-to-head. If more British Columbians chose one party over the other as best to lead on an issue, it is considered an advantage either major (a gap of 10 percentage points or more) or minor (a gap of between four and nine percentage points). A difference of three percentage points or less, or within the statistical margin of error, is considered a tie. The full data for each issue is available in the detailed tables.
Men aged 34 and older are the most enthusiastic supporters of the BC Conservatives and Rustad and also are the most likely to give the challengers the edge on the top issues of the day. Women are more mixed in their assessments. On health care, they are more likely to see Eby and the BC NDP as the best choice. On other issues, there is not much separating the two parties for women older than 34:
Regional views
The BC NDP’s current vote intention advantage is biggest in Vancouver and Burnaby, while they also are the preferred party in the area in the outer ring of Metro Vancouver including Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Langley and Coquitlam. The BC Conservatives double the BC NDP’s current vote intent in the Interior, while they also lead in Fraser Valley. The other two regions are more contested.
In the BC NDP’s Vancouver/Burnaby stronghold, they are more likely to be viewed as the best choice for the issues of health care, housing affordability, drug use and cost of living, while they are in a tie with the BC Conservatives on street crime. Elsewhere on the mainland, the BC Conservatives are much more likely to be viewed as best to lead on many of the key issues except health care:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Aug. 28-30, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,049 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For the full release including methodology, click here.
For the questionnaire, click here.
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Jon Roe, Research Associate: 825.437.1147 jon.roe@angusreid.org @thejonroe
