Eby holds eight-point advantage over Rustad on the question of who would be best premier
September 25, 2024 – With BC’s 43rd general election campaign into its first week, a clearer picture is emerging of the extent to which the incumbent BC NDP is facing a much tougher fight to earn another term.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the parties in a statistical tie as the first week of formal campaigning kicks off, with 45 per cent of British Columbians saying they will support the BC NDP and 44 per cent voicing intention to vote for the BC Conservatives.
But it is the story of key battleground regions, particularly in and around the vote rich suburbs of Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, that frames the early stages of this electoral battle.
Comparisons to the main party standings regionally between 2020 and this year’s campaign show that the BC NDP has either remained consistent or declined slightly over the last four years in all regions. The difference this time around is that their competition has cauterized a more significant portion of the vote. While the BC Conservatives have subsumed the BC United/BC Liberal vote, the party also benefits from 30 per cent of 2020 Green Party voters joining its ranks. This outpaces the number who have left the Greens for the BC NDP (22%).
On core issues, the NDP are currently seen as better to handle health care (+12 over BCC) while the BC Conservatives are trusted more with economic growth (+10) and neighbourhood safety (+14). On housing affordability, British Columbians give neither the NDP nor the Conservatives an edge.
Many British Columbians will be getting to know the provincial leaders better in the coming weeks and momentum will be key. Leaders David Eby and John Rustad have both generated more negative than positive impressions from British Columbians in recent weeks, while the same is true, to a smaller extent, of the lesser-known Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau.
More Key Findings:
- Half of British Columbians say John Rustad holds views that are “too extreme” for him to be premier, while one-in-three (34%) disagree with this statement. More than two-in-five undecided voters (44%) say his views are too extreme.
- Asked about recent policy reversals (increasing mandatory treatment, removing consumer carbon tax) 43 per cent of British Columbians say David Eby is making purely political calculations, rather than earnest changes based on listening to constituents (17%). That said, three-in-10 (31%) say both are partially true.
- British Columbians appear to support the BC NDP carbon tax proposal more than the BC Conservative alternative. Seven-in-10 (70%) say they support removing the consumer carbon tax but keeping the tax on industry emitters, while 47 per cent say they are supportive of eliminating the tax completely.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Vote intention
- One-in-five undecided as campaign begins
- BC NDP and BC Conservatives in statistical tie
- Age and gender divide
- Regional battlegrounds
Part Two: Views of party leaders
- Momentum: Rustad eliciting both positive and negative responses
- Eby “playing politics”?
- Rustad “too extreme”?
- Eby holds eight-point advantage as best premier
Part Three: Strengths and weaknesses
- Who’s best on health care, economy, opioid crisis?
- NDP carbon tax proposal preferred
- Mandatory treatment draws overwhelming support
Part One: Vote intention
The leadup to the provincial election in British Columbia had its share of curveballs. For proof of this, look no further than the fact that the opposition party in the legislature will not be running any candidates in the election. The evaporation of BC United has ceded opportunity to the upstart BC Conservatives, who now look to ride momentum to a mandate in Victoria. On the other side of the contest is David Eby and the incumbent BC NDP, which were led in the last election by John Horgan, who passed leadership to Eby in 2022. With significant challenges, in health care, on the streets of B.C.’s most populous city, and in the bank accounts of residents, the election has no shortage of stakes for supporters all sides of the political spectrum.
One-in-five undecided as campaign begins
As the writs were issued for the 43rd provincial general election, one-in-five British Columbians had yet to decide on their preferred party (19%). Both the BC NDP and the Conservative Party of BC are chosen by 35 per cent of residents as the preferred party on their ballot, while seven per cent say they will support the BC Green Party:
BC NDP and BC Conservatives in statistical tie
When focusing on decided and leaning voters, however, the logjam at the top of the ballot remains, with a near-identical portion of voters indicating support for the NDP and the Conservatives. This same finding is noted on the question of whether the NDP “deserves another four years” in government, where residents are evenly divided (see detailed tables):
The staggering change in the political landscape is best indicated by the timeline below, as one can see the diminishing support for the former-BC Liberals, after transitioning to the new moniker BC United, and the dramatic rise in support for the BC Conservatives. One important aspect of this timeline is also the slow but steady drop in support for the BC Green Party, as voters have evidently chosen to “pick a side” among those parties more likely to form government:
The loss of support for the BC Green Party plays a key role in these data. Approaching half of 2020 Green Party voters say they’ll support the party again, but 30 per cent have switched to the Conservatives and 22 per cent to the BC NDP.
Age and gender divide
BC NDP support hangs slightly more precariously in the hands of younger and less reliable voters. For the Conservative Party, men over 54 years of age are the most stalwart group, though the inverse of this is true among women in that age group:
Regional battlegrounds
It has often been said that there is no path to government without winning in the vote rich suburbs outside of Vancouver. What may be more apt, at least at the beginning of this campaign, is the extent to which electoral success in these communities will dominate the outcome. With voters in BC’s North and Interior comfortably changing their loyalties from BC United to the BC Conservatives, the electoral map is unlikely to change much in those parts of the province. The same cannot necessarily be said in and around Metro Vancouver.
A notable dichotomy has emerged from the 2020 vote dynamic. The “good news” for the BC NDP is that it has mostly held its support across the province. There have been declines, but they have not been catastrophic. That said, the impacts of even slight declines could be disastrous in the face of significant gains on the right. The BC Conservatives appear not only to have picked up whatever was left of the BC United vote, but have eaten into the Green vote as well, putting the pressure on the NDP.
Part Two: Views of party leaders
The faces of the election, leaders David Eby, John Rustad, and Sonia Furstenau, will get their most well-watched screen time on October 8 in the leadership debate. Furstenau is the only returning leader from the 2020 election but remains unknown to three-in-10 (31%) British Columbians. Eby splits favourability evenly, with 45 per cent viewing him favourably and 45 per cent unfavourably, while Rustad is viewed more unfavourably (49%) than favourably (33%):
The BC Conservative leader faces a major challenge in the coming weeks – to improve his standing among women. This is the same problem federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has faced. Just one-quarter (27%) of potential female voters view him favourably, 14 points lower than his favourability among men.
Momentum: Views of Rustad both improve and worsen
Rustad has generated the largest number of new positive impressions (20%), and also new negative impressions (38%) based on what British Columbians have seen and heard of him in the last couple of weeks. For David Eby, one-in-three (33%) say their view has become more negative, while 14 per cent say it has improved.
In terms of net momentum, that is, the percentage of those whose opinion has improved minus worsened of each leader, John Rustad and David Eby now occupy a similar space, which in practical terms represents little change for Eby but a worsening for Rustad since August:
David Eby has made two high-profile announcements in recent weeks that have been described as course-corrections at best, and flip-flops at worst. Eby announced his party would support an expansion of mandatory medical treatment for those with severe addiction or mental health issues, as well as an end to the consumer portion of the provincial carbon tax (pending a change in the federal government), both positions he previously opposed. These moves do not appear to have had a noticeable impact on current NDP supporters, but may have contributed to worsening opinion among Green and undecided voters:
Eby “playing politics”?
Asked about these aforementioned policy reversals, the largest group of British Columbians feel some level of cynicism, with 43 per cent saying the moves are purely political. Four-in-five BC Conservatives feel this way. Even among intending BC NDP voters, 14 per cent feel the decisions are purely politics, while 45 per cent say there’s at least some calculation at play, but that the party can also be listening to what voters want – that the two are not mutually exclusive:
Rustad “too extreme”?
The NDP, in turn, have moved quickly to paint Rustad as a conspiracy theorist over his views and statements relating to climate change and COVID-19 vaccinations. Just over half of British Columbians lean toward feeling Rustad is “too extreme” in his views, including 44 per cent of undecided voters:
Eby holds eight-point advantage as best premier
While the vote intention picture remains locked, there is a small gap between David Eby and John Rustad on which would make the better premier. Two-in-five (40%) choose the BC NDP leader, while 32 per cent choose Rustad. This represents a slight increase in the gap between the two leaders compared to last month, with Eby now holding an eight-point advantage, compared to four points at the end of August:
Responses among partisans are near identical for Eby and Rustad. The advantage that the former appears to hold is that he is chosen as best to lead by one-in-five among both BC Green voters and those who have yet to decide (see detailed tables).
Part Three: Strengths and weaknesses
Who’s best on health care, economy, opioid crisis?
While the sales pitch to British Columbians may just be ramping up, each party evidently has strengths to build on and weaknesses to address. For the BC NDP, health care and emergency preparedness yield advantages, while for the Conservatives, trust on the opioid and addiction crisis, community safety, and the economy are evident. That said, no party receives even 40 per cent on any of these measures, suggesting that residents are divided about who should be given the keys. On housing costs and the overall quality of life there is little difference between the BC NDP, the Conservative Party, and the feeling that none of the parties will make much difference:
NDP carbon tax proposal preferred
Both candidates have recently announced their vision for the provincial carbon tax if elected to govern. David Eby stated that the BC NDP will remove the consumer portion of the carbon tax, while maintaining a carbon price for industry, if the federal government does indeed change in 2025 and the national mandate for carbon pricing is removed. For his part, John Rustad has made no such qualifiers, stating that he will remove the tax completely, though many provinces have run into roadblocks in dealing with the federal backstop.
British Columbians appear to prefer the maintenance of a carbon price on industrial emitters, with seven-in-10 supporting the BC NDP proposal. Fewer, approximately half, say they would end the tax completely:
Mandatory treatment draws overwhelming support
Another high-profile debate in British Columbia is the expansion of mandatory medical treatment for those with sever mental illness or addiction. This, after violent attacks in Vancouver made headlines across the country. While debates over infrastructural demands of expanding mandatory treatment are ongoing, British Columbians are overwhelmingly in favour of the concept, supported by both leading parties.
METHODOLOGY:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from September 20 – 22, 2024 among a representative randomized sample of 1,215 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
For detailed results by region click here.
For Questionnaire, click here.
For Full Release, click here.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Shachi Kurl, President: 604.908.1693 shachi.kurl@angusreid.org @shachikurl
Dave Korzinski, Research Director: 250.899.0821 dave.korzinski@angusreid.org
