Forum used Interactive Voice Response (IVR) phone polling to reach 1,373 adult Canadians on the day before election day. Results were weighted to census data where appropriate. Forum reports that the margin of error of is +/-3%, 19 times out of 20.
Forum’s sample is reflective of all respondents, both committed and leaning voters.
The specific question asked was, “Which party are you most likely to vote for, or have you already voted for in the federal election on October 19?” Those who were unsure were asked the follow-up question “Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?”
Results: Liberal 40 per cent, CPC 30 per cent, NDP 20 per cent