Electoral Record Continued

Electoral Record Continued

US National Elections

United States – November 2016

Angus Reid accurately forecast a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton, with an exact total of 48 per cent.

Actual Angus Reid
Trump (R) 45.9% 44%
Clinton (D) 48% 48%
Other 6.1%  8%
Av. Err. -1.3

United States – November 2012

Angus Reid provided the most accurate forecast of the nationwide popular vote, perfectly predicting the level of support for the two main candidates and issuing the best overall prediction among 28 firms that conducted a pre-election poll.

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 51% 51%
Romney (R) 48% 48%
Other 1% 2%
Av. Err. -0.3

Nate Silver, who monitors polling trends for The New York Times rated three online pollsters including Angus Reid as the most accurate.

Fordham University ranked Angus Reid fourth when examining who came closest to the 2012 presidential election results

 

US State Elections

New York – November 2010

Voters in the Empire State participated in three elections in 2010, due to the retirement of Hillary Rodham Clinton from the U.S. Senate. Veteran incumbent Charles Schumer and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo both enjoyed blowout victories.  The prediction of the second Senate race, where Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Joseph DioGuardi, was the best of all pollsters.

NY Senate (1) – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid Siena Rasm
Schumer (D) 65% 61% 66% 62%
Townsend (R) 33% 35% 33% 33%
Other 2% 4% 0% 5%
Av. Err. -2.7 -1.0 -2.0

NY Senate (2) – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid SUSA Siena
Gillibrand (D) 63% 59% 57% 60%
DioGuardi (R) 35% 38% 37% 39%
Other 2% 2% 6% 0%
Av. Err. -2.3 -4.0 -3.7

NY Governor – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid NYT Rasm
Cuomo (D) 63% 55% 70% 54%
Paladino (R) 33% 38% 29% 39%
Other 4% 7% 2% 5%
Av. Err. -5.3 -5.0 -5.3

California – November 2010

In the Golden State, the Angus Reid surveys correctly anticipated the re-election of U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, and a victory for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown over Republican challenger Meg Whitman. An adequate assessment of the level of support for four third-party candidates proved crucial in the Senate prediction.

CA Senate – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid PPP SUSA Rasm
Boxer (D) 52% 51% 52% 51% 51%
Fiorina (R) 42% 44% 47% 42% 47%
Other 6% 7% 0% 7% 2%
Av. Err. -1.3 -3.7 -0.7 -3.3

CA Governor – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid PPP SUSA Rasm
Brown (D) 54% 49% 53% 53% 51%
Whitman (R) 41% 44% 47% 41% 46%
Other 5% 7% 0% 6% 2%
Av. Err. -3.3 -3.7 -0.7 -3.7

Ohio – November 2010

Angus Reid covered two elections in the Buckeye State in 2010, providing the best predictions of the online era, with a difference of only two percentage points from the final outcome of each democratic process. The surveys predicted a victory for Rob Portman in the race to replace departing U.S. Senator George Voinovich, and a defeat for incumbent governor Ted Strickland.

OH Senate – November 2010     

Actual Angus Reid Quinn PPP UCinn
Portman (R) 57% 57% 61% 59% 61%
Fisher (D) 39% 40% 40% 41% 39%
Other 4% 3% 1% 0% 1%
Av. Err. -0.7 -2.7 -2.0 -2.3

OH Governor – November 2010

Actual Angus Reid PPP SUSA Quinn
Kasich (R) 49% 49% 51% 51% 53%
Strickland (D) 47% 46% 49% 46% 46%
Other 4% 5% 0% 4% 1%
Av. Err. -0.7 -2.7 -1.0 -2.7

Wisconsin – November 2012

In the Badger State, Angus Reid offered its best prediction ever in a democratic process, accurately forecasting a seven-point victory for Barack Obama. In the tightly contested U.S. Senate race, a win for Tammy Baldwin over Tommy Thompson was also anticipated.

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 53% 53%
Romney (R) 46% 46%
Other 1% 1%
Av. Err. -0.0

WI Senate – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Baldwin (D) 52% 50%
Thompson (R) 46% 48%
Other 2% 2%
Av. Err. -1.3

Pennsylvania – November 2012

The final pre-election surveys published by Angus Reid in the Keystone State suggested that incumbents Barack Obama and Bob Casey Jr. would emerge victorious, while other forecasts suggested a closer race that did not materialize once all the votes were tallied.

PA Presidential – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 52% 51%
Romney (R) 47% 47%
Other 1% 2%
Av. Err. -0.6

PA Senate – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Casey (D) 52% 53%
Smith (R) 47% 46%
Other 1% 1%
Av. Err. -0.6

Ohio – November 2012

The level of support for Republican nominee Mitt Romney was perfectly predicted in the Buckeye State, along with victories for incumbents Barack Obama and Sherrod Brown in their respective races.

OH Presidential – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 50% 51%
Romney (R) 48% 48%
Other 2% 1%
Av. Err. -0.6

OH Senate – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Brown (D) 50% 52%
Mandel (R) 45% 46%
Other 5% 2%
Av. Err. -2.0

Florida – November 2012

The Sunshine State once again provided a difficult challenge for pollsters. Angus Reid’s final predictions suggested a presidential race that was simply too close to call, and a victory for incumbent U.S. Senator Bill Nelson.

FL Presidential – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 50% 49%
Romney (R) 49% 49%
Other 1% 2%
Av. Err. -0.6

FL Senate – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Nelson (D) 55% 53%
Mack (R) 42% 45%
Other 6% 2%
Av. Err. -2.0

Michigan – November 2012

A victory for Barack Obama, and an easy win for incumbent U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, were both predicted in the final pre-election poll conducted in the Great Lake State.

MI Presidential – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Obama (D) 54% 52%
Romney (R) 45% 47%
Other 1% 1%
Av. Err. -1.3

MI Senate – November 2012

Actual Angus Reid
Stabenow (D) 58% 56%
Hoekstra (R) 39% 43%
Other 3% 1%
Av. Err. -3.0

Wisconsin – June 2012

The unique online methodology anticipated a victory for incumbent Governor Scott Walker over challenger Tom Barrett, with a total variation of just two percentage points from the actual outcome.

Actual ARPO SNC Mar R-R PPP Mell GQRR WAA
Walker (R) 53% 53% 53% 54% 54% 52% 52% 52% 56%
Barrett (D) 46% 47% 47% 46% 46% 48% 48% 48% 44%
Other 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Difference -2% -2% -2% -2% -4% -4% -4% -6%

UK National Elections

UK – May 2010

With our first foray into UK polling, our online methodology captured the winning Conservative’s support.

Actual ARPO ICM YouGov Populus Ipsos ComRes BPIX Opinium
Conservatives 36% 36% 33% 35% 36% 36% 37% 34% 34%
Liberal Democrats 23% 29% 27% 24% 28% 23% 26% 30% 25%
Labour 29% 24% 28% 30% 27% 30% 29% 27% 28%
Avg Err. -3.7 -2.7 -1 -2.3 -0.3 -1.3 -3.7 -1.7

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